2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[CyclonicFury]

:uarrow: Stupid question as long as I've been here, is the EPS the Euro ensemble?

Yes.

[Kingarabian]

:uarrow: Stupid question as long as I've been here, is the EPS the Euro ensemble?

Yes it is.

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow: Stupid question as long as I've been here, is the EPS the Euro ensemble?

Yes.

GEFS=GFS ensembles

GEPS=CMC ensembles

[FireRat]

Hmmm with the current indicators pointing to a busy early July, I smell a 1996 Bertha-like storm, or even the kind of stuff we saw in July 2005. Gonna be an interesting month, likely much more interesting than July typically is. We'll see!

[Shell Mound]

Gator, I want to tell you something. In April 2017, I started getting this weird feeling in my stomach. I felt this need to watch Hurricane Andrew videos on Youtube from TWC. I watched John Hope discuss Andrew in legendary fashion. I just couldn’t stop watching the videos over and over because I had this weird feeling that months later a Category 5 hurricane would be staring down South Florida and as we all know, Irma threatened South Florida as a Cat 5 and that brought flashbacks to me having this funny feeling 5 months before Irma hit. Luckily, SE Florida dodged a major bullet but my gut was right...something was gonna come for South Florida.

Fast forward to 2020, and I developed another one of those gut feelings. This time, I am constantly drawn to Hurricane Wilma and Hurricane Irene (1999) videos on Youtube. I cant stop watching them. I have this deep feeling in my gut that Florida will get hit this year from a big hurricane coming from the SW Caribbean.

Maybe I am just being silly, but my gut feeling was right in 2017 and I fear it may be right again in 2020. The pattern and atmosphere just seem to be screaming for a FL hit from the Caribbean this year

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Historically, while most of South Florida’s* hurricanes have originated in the Caribbean, most of its Cat-4+ impacts have developed in the MDR and/or subtropics instead. Since 1851 only two of South Florida’s Cat-4+ hits originated in the Caribbean. A hurricane in September 1948 struck the Lower Keys (105 kt) and then Chokoloskee Bay (115 kt). In October 1950 Hurricane King rapidly deepened to 115 kt as it struck Coconut Grove in Miami. All the other Cat-4+ hits developed in the MDR and/or subtropics, including the major hits of 1919, 1926, 1928, 1935, 1945, 1947, 1949, 1960, and 1992.

If a strong hurricane develops in the Caribbean and strikes South Florida in 2020, it will most likely be a Cat-3 at most, rather than a truly historic Cat-4+. Plus, unless it manages to strike the Keys, a major strike from the Caribbean usually delivers its worst surge/wind to the Everglades of Collier/mainland Monroe counties, as Wilma did in 2005. So climatology suggests that a strong Bermuda High is usually necessary to deliver Cat-4+ hits on South Florida. Cat-3s or weaker, however, are proverbial “fair game” in other cases.

Anyway, from a Floridian’s standpoint, one doesn’t care about “dodged bullets” and near misses such as Dorian (2019), but only about the big ones that do hit, including Michael in 2018. For some reason South Florida has dodged one bullet after another since Andrew. We’ve seen so many Cat-4+ hurricanes come so close but veer away, weaken, or pass to the west. The fact that Matthew (2016) and Dorian defied the reliable ECMWF suite by staying offshore has almost convinced me that something mysterious is at work.

*The NWS Miami’s CWA defines South Florida as Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Glades, Hendry, Collier, and mainland Monroe counties.

Nothing mysterious, just very hard to predict little fluid movements in the atmosphere.

I respectfully disagree. Most of the EPS (ECMWF) guidance for Matthew and Dorian showed landfalls on South-Central Florida only one to two days before the storms made their closest approaches to Florida. Bear in mind that we were not dealing with weaker systems prone to larger track errors, but with well-developed, intense hurricanes at the time of the EPS (ECMWF) runs, the majority of whose members showed powerful hurricanes striking South-Central Florida only a few days out. Not only did the operational ECMWF show this landfall, but so, too, did the majority of its fifty-plus ensemble members. Such a massive short-term bust is highly unusual for the most reliable ensemble guidance dealing with major hurricanes within such a short range. In fact, there was a similar track bust for Irma in 2017 as well. Just a few days out most of the EPS and GEFS guidance showed a Cat-4+ landfall on Southeast Florida, but Irma ultimately struck the Lower Keys and Marco Island. Frances, too, was expected to hit South-Central Florida as a Cat-4+ just a few days out. There have been so-many dramatic near-term (modular and other) “busts” regarding major hurricanes threatening South(-east) Florida that the matter does seem a bit mysterious. I have my own opinions about this matter, but I won’t go “in depth” on a public forum.

[toad strangler]

There have been so-many dramatic near-term (modular and other) “busts” regarding major hurricanes threatening South(-east) Florida that the matter does seem a bit mysterious. I have my own opinions about this matter, but I won’t go “in depth” on a public forum.

Martians?

[cycloneye]

Let's wait until early to mid July.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1273931666940211200

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1273944533655597057

[USTropics]

The anomalous cooling that has taken place in the Atlantic Equatorial mode (area near Gulf of Guinea) is particularly concerning. This has concentrated warming of SSTs within the MDR region over the past 7 days:


The June SSTA pattern is now very similar to the past 2 hyperactive seasons:

2020

2010

2005

[TheStormExpert]

The anomalous cooling that has taken place in the Atlantic Equatorial mode (area near Gulf of Guinea) is particularly concerning. This has concentrated warming of SSTs within the MDR region over the past 7 days:
https://i.imgur.com/8ByQv2f.gif

The June SSTA pattern is now very similar to the past 2 hyperactive seasons:

2020
https://i.imgur.com/72CeeNr.gif
2010
https://i.imgur.com/oQmGMKx.png
2005
https://i.imgur.com/uqmJ4yZ.gif

You forgot 2017.

[USTropics]

The anomalous cooling that has taken place in the Atlantic Equatorial mode (area near Gulf of Guinea) is particularly concerning. This has concentrated warming of SSTs within the MDR region over the past 7 days:
https://i.imgur.com/8ByQv2f.gif

The June SSTA pattern is now very similar to the past 2 hyperactive seasons:

2020
https://i.imgur.com/72CeeNr.gif
2010
https://i.imgur.com/oQmGMKx.png
2005
https://i.imgur.com/uqmJ4yZ.gif

You forgot 2017.

2017


2017 had a late blooming La Nina. ONI was only -0.1 for JAS. So while it was hyperactive, the ENSO pattern is about ~2 months lagging compared to 2005, 2010, 2020.

End of August 2017

[AnnularCane]

Hmmm with the current indicators pointing to a busy early July, I smell a 1996 Bertha-like storm, or even the kind of stuff we saw in July 2005. Gonna be an interesting month, likely much more interesting than July typically is. We'll see!

You read my mind. Maybe Bertha should have waited a bit so this possible Bertha-like storm could be, well...Bertha.

[SFLcane]

The anomalous cooling that has taken place in the Atlantic Equatorial mode (area near Gulf of Guinea) is particularly concerning. This has concentrated warming of SSTs within the MDR region over the past 7 days:
https://i.imgur.com/8ByQv2f.gif

The June SSTA pattern is now very similar to the past 2 hyperactive seasons:

2020
https://i.imgur.com/72CeeNr.gif
2010
https://i.imgur.com/oQmGMKx.png
2005
https://i.imgur.com/uqmJ4yZ.gif

Give it a few weeks. Lid will come off

[TheStormExpert]

The anomalous cooling that has taken place in the Atlantic Equatorial mode (area near Gulf of Guinea) is particularly concerning. This has concentrated warming of SSTs within the MDR region over the past 7 days:
https://i.imgur.com/8ByQv2f.gif

The June SSTA pattern is now very similar to the past 2 hyperactive seasons:

2020
https://i.imgur.com/72CeeNr.gif
2010
https://i.imgur.com/oQmGMKx.png
2005
https://i.imgur.com/uqmJ4yZ.gif

Give it a few weeks. Lid will come off

I personally think the lid will come off as early as late-July but no later than mid-August. August should be far more active than the last two years.

[aspen]

The anomalous cooling that has taken place in the Atlantic Equatorial mode (area near Gulf of Guinea) is particularly concerning. This has concentrated warming of SSTs within the MDR region over the past 7 days:
https://i.imgur.com/8ByQv2f.gif

The June SSTA pattern is now very similar to the past 2 hyperactive seasons:

2020
https://i.imgur.com/72CeeNr.gif
2010
https://i.imgur.com/oQmGMKx.png
2005
https://i.imgur.com/uqmJ4yZ.gif

So I’m assuming this means we should be looking out for equatorial Atlantic/ESE Africa waters cooling as much as equatorial Pacific waters cooling, and the former will result in a warmer-than-average MDR?

[USTropics]

So I’m assuming this means we should be looking out for equatorial Atlantic/ESE Africa waters cooling as much as equatorial Pacific waters cooling, and the former will result in a warmer-than-average MDR?

Here's a graphic I created showing what has been occurring the past ~2 weeks, and some of the overall processes. Like you stated, the increased easterlies has disrupted the Equatorial Counter Current, which is an important current for transferring warm SSTAs out of the MDR towards the South Atlantic.

[Shell Mound]

No one mentioned the fact that the June NMME shows a definite trend toward a wetter CPAC/EPAC (implying more of a +PMM than previously), a weaker -IOD/-PDO, and less of a cold pool in the Gulf of Guinea. Additionally, note that the shift in precipitation pattern implies a somewhat drier MDR and a stronger +NAO/Bermuda High displaced farther northeast than on the May run, hence less TC activity in the Gulf of Mexico and more offshore/OTS tracks, along with some “Caribbean cruisers” well to the south of the mainland U.S. So there has been more of a shift toward the 2007- or 2013-type look that the ECMWF/UKMET has been forecasting all along, at least in terms of tracks. This could mean more refugee crises for the U.S. if a “second wave” of COVID-19 coincides with a catastrophic hurricane or two in Central America/Yucatán, à la Mitch (1998) or Dean (2007). I’m not convinced that this kind of pattern would support October threats to Florida because +NAO would support Central-American/Mexican and/or Bermuda impacts instead, given Hadley displacement. Maybe something like Noel (2007) would evolve instead.

[Shell Mound]

Some quick model verifications for 2019, here are JAS precipitation anomalies observed compared to some June 2019 forecasts for JAS:

https://i.imgur.com/7clQ6zb.png

https://i.imgur.com/9h1ss8I.png
https://i.imgur.com/FBOAl7O.png
https://i.imgur.com/hDpU0KP.png
https://i.imgur.com/lnLvtMt.png

It appears that, aside from its handling of the WAM, the EC did fairly well forecasting general precipitation patterns back in 2019. The Caribbean/MDR were generally drier than normal; there were some above-average anomalies near the MS Delta and off the Southeastern U.S.; and most TC activity occurred over the subtropics. People do rightly mention the EC’s shortcomings in regard to the WAM, but people haven’t given it enough credit in other areas. Leave Africa aside and the EC does fairly well otherwise, at least in terms of forecasting general precipitation patterns.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I think there is a lot of missing the forest for the trees. Everyone is focused on what this model says will be JAS and that the High will be here not there. I'd say look at whats in front of you. Anomalously warm MDR with cooler than normal subtropics. Looking at the SST anomaly above, the cool anomalies run right to the coastal region in the subtropics. Cooler subtropics over warmer MDR is going to lower the pressures in the MDR if they continue, and I see no real reason this configuration will change all that dramatically in the next several months. So you will have higher pressures in the subtropics over the cooler anomalies and lower pressures in the deep tropics. The fact that cooler anomalies go right up to the coast doesn't lend well to an "all out to sea" pattern. It points to systems moving more westerly towards the Caribbean and SE US coast as well as the GOM. That's the pattern that is setting up that we can see now Will there be exceptions...of course, but the general pattern is telling us what it is and will most probably become. Models are nice, but you have to look at what you are seeing first. Models are a tool, but not as good of a tool as your eyes.
For the current anomaly pattern, something would have to develop very close to the African Coast to recurve.

[TheStormExpert]

No one mentioned the fact that the June NMME shows a definite trend toward a wetter CPAC/EPAC (implying more of a +PMM than previously), a weaker -IOD/-PDO, and less of a cold pool in the Gulf of Guinea. Additionally, note that the shift in precipitation pattern implies a somewhat drier MDR and a stronger +NAO/Bermuda High displaced farther northeast than on the May run, hence less TC activity in the Gulf of Mexico and more offshore/OTS tracks, along with some “Caribbean cruisers” well to the south of the mainland U.S. So there has been more of a shift toward the 2007- or 2013-type look that the ECMWF/UKMET has been forecasting all along, at least in terms of tracks. This could mean more refugee crises for the U.S. if a “second wave” of COVID-19 coincides with a catastrophic hurricane or two in Central America/Yucatán, à la Mitch (1998) or Dean (2007). I’m not convinced that this kind of pattern would support October threats to Florida because +NAO would support Central-American/Mexican and/or Bermuda impacts instead, given Hadley displacement. Maybe something like Noel (2007) would evolve instead.

That's a pretty bold statement to make 2-4 months out. Let alone a month out, the 500mb pattern is constantly changing. Besides you keep changing your assumptions each day so what should we believe? Bedsides the June update for the NMME still shows Florida (especially the peninsula) in the crosshairs.