Hammy wrote::uarrow: Stupid question as long as I've been here, is the EPS the Euro ensemble?
Yes.
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Hammy wrote::uarrow: Stupid question as long as I've been here, is the EPS the Euro ensemble?
Hammy wrote::uarrow: Stupid question as long as I've been here, is the EPS the Euro ensemble?
Hammy wrote::uarrow: Stupid question as long as I've been here, is the EPS the Euro ensemble?
AutoPenalti wrote:Shell Mound wrote:WeatherEmperor wrote:Gator, I want to tell you something. In April 2017, I started getting this weird feeling in my stomach. I felt this need to watch Hurricane Andrew videos on Youtube from TWC. I watched John Hope discuss Andrew in legendary fashion. I just couldn’t stop watching the videos over and over because I had this weird feeling that months later a Category 5 hurricane would be staring down South Florida and as we all know, Irma threatened South Florida as a Cat 5 and that brought flashbacks to me having this funny feeling 5 months before Irma hit. Luckily, SE Florida dodged a major bullet but my gut was right...something was gonna come for South Florida.
Fast forward to 2020, and I developed another one of those gut feelings. This time, I am constantly drawn to Hurricane Wilma and Hurricane Irene (1999) videos on Youtube. I cant stop watching them. I have this deep feeling in my gut that Florida will get hit this year from a big hurricane coming from the SW Caribbean.
Maybe I am just being silly, but my gut feeling was right in 2017 and I fear it may be right again in 2020. The pattern and atmosphere just seem to be screaming for a FL hit from the Caribbean this year
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Historically, while most of South Florida’s* hurricanes have originated in the Caribbean, most of its Cat-4+ impacts have developed in the MDR and/or subtropics instead. Since 1851 only two of South Florida’s Cat-4+ hits originated in the Caribbean. A hurricane in September 1948 struck the Lower Keys (105 kt) and then Chokoloskee Bay (115 kt). In October 1950 Hurricane King rapidly deepened to 115 kt as it struck Coconut Grove in Miami. All the other Cat-4+ hits developed in the MDR and/or subtropics, including the major hits of 1919, 1926, 1928, 1935, 1945, 1947, 1949, 1960, and 1992.
If a strong hurricane develops in the Caribbean and strikes South Florida in 2020, it will most likely be a Cat-3 at most, rather than a truly historic Cat-4+. Plus, unless it manages to strike the Keys, a major strike from the Caribbean usually delivers its worst surge/wind to the Everglades of Collier/mainland Monroe counties, as Wilma did in 2005. So climatology suggests that a strong Bermuda High is usually necessary to deliver Cat-4+ hits on South Florida. Cat-3s or weaker, however, are proverbial “fair game” in other cases.
Anyway, from a Floridian’s standpoint, one doesn’t care about “dodged bullets” and near misses such as Dorian (2019), but only about the big ones that do hit, including Michael in 2018. For some reason South Florida has dodged one bullet after another since Andrew. We’ve seen so many Cat-4+ hurricanes come so close but veer away, weaken, or pass to the west. The fact that Matthew (2016) and Dorian defied the reliable ECMWF suite by staying offshore has almost convinced me that something mysterious is at work.
*The NWS Miami’s CWA defines South Florida as Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Glades, Hendry, Collier, and mainland Monroe counties.
Nothing mysterious, just very hard to predict little fluid movements in the atmosphere.
Shell Mound wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:Shell Mound wrote:There have been so-many dramatic near-term (modular and other) “busts” regarding major hurricanes threatening South(-east) Florida that the matter does seem a bit mysterious. I have my own opinions about this matter, but I won’t go “in depth” on a public forum.
USTropics wrote:The anomalous cooling that has taken place in the Atlantic Equatorial mode (area near Gulf of Guinea) is particularly concerning. This has concentrated warming of SSTs within the MDR region over the past 7 days:
https://i.imgur.com/8ByQv2f.gif
The June SSTA pattern is now very similar to the past 2 hyperactive seasons:
2020
https://i.imgur.com/72CeeNr.gif
2010
https://i.imgur.com/oQmGMKx.png
2005
https://i.imgur.com/uqmJ4yZ.gif
TheStormExpert wrote:USTropics wrote:The anomalous cooling that has taken place in the Atlantic Equatorial mode (area near Gulf of Guinea) is particularly concerning. This has concentrated warming of SSTs within the MDR region over the past 7 days:
https://i.imgur.com/8ByQv2f.gif
The June SSTA pattern is now very similar to the past 2 hyperactive seasons:
2020
https://i.imgur.com/72CeeNr.gif
2010
https://i.imgur.com/oQmGMKx.png
2005
https://i.imgur.com/uqmJ4yZ.gif
You forgot 2017.
FireRat wrote:Hmmm with the current indicators pointing to a busy early July, I smell a 1996 Bertha-like storm, or even the kind of stuff we saw in July 2005. Gonna be an interesting month, likely much more interesting than July typically is. We'll see!
USTropics wrote:The anomalous cooling that has taken place in the Atlantic Equatorial mode (area near Gulf of Guinea) is particularly concerning. This has concentrated warming of SSTs within the MDR region over the past 7 days:
https://i.imgur.com/8ByQv2f.gif
The June SSTA pattern is now very similar to the past 2 hyperactive seasons:
2020
https://i.imgur.com/72CeeNr.gif
2010
https://i.imgur.com/oQmGMKx.png
2005
https://i.imgur.com/uqmJ4yZ.gif
SFLcane wrote:USTropics wrote:The anomalous cooling that has taken place in the Atlantic Equatorial mode (area near Gulf of Guinea) is particularly concerning. This has concentrated warming of SSTs within the MDR region over the past 7 days:
https://i.imgur.com/8ByQv2f.gif
The June SSTA pattern is now very similar to the past 2 hyperactive seasons:
2020
https://i.imgur.com/72CeeNr.gif
2010
https://i.imgur.com/oQmGMKx.png
2005
https://i.imgur.com/uqmJ4yZ.gif
Give it a few weeks. Lid will come off
USTropics wrote:The anomalous cooling that has taken place in the Atlantic Equatorial mode (area near Gulf of Guinea) is particularly concerning. This has concentrated warming of SSTs within the MDR region over the past 7 days:
https://i.imgur.com/8ByQv2f.gif
The June SSTA pattern is now very similar to the past 2 hyperactive seasons:
2020
https://i.imgur.com/72CeeNr.gif
2010
https://i.imgur.com/oQmGMKx.png
2005
https://i.imgur.com/uqmJ4yZ.gif
aspen wrote:So I’m assuming this means we should be looking out for equatorial Atlantic/ESE Africa waters cooling as much as equatorial Pacific waters cooling, and the former will result in a warmer-than-average MDR?
USTropics wrote:Some quick model verifications for 2019, here are JAS precipitation anomalies observed compared to some June 2019 forecasts for JAS:
https://i.imgur.com/7clQ6zb.png
https://i.imgur.com/9h1ss8I.png
https://i.imgur.com/FBOAl7O.png
https://i.imgur.com/hDpU0KP.png
https://i.imgur.com/lnLvtMt.png
Shell Mound wrote:No one mentioned the fact that the June NMME shows a definite trend toward a wetter CPAC/EPAC (implying more of a +PMM than previously), a weaker -IOD/-PDO, and less of a cold pool in the Gulf of Guinea. Additionally, note that the shift in precipitation pattern implies a somewhat drier MDR and a stronger +NAO/Bermuda High displaced farther northeast than on the May run, hence less TC activity in the Gulf of Mexico and more offshore/OTS tracks, along with some “Caribbean cruisers” well to the south of the mainland U.S. So there has been more of a shift toward the 2007- or 2013-type look that the ECMWF/UKMET has been forecasting all along, at least in terms of tracks. This could mean more refugee crises for the U.S. if a “second wave” of COVID-19 coincides with a catastrophic hurricane or two in Central America/Yucatán, à la Mitch (1998) or Dean (2007). I’m not convinced that this kind of pattern would support October threats to Florida because +NAO would support Central-American/Mexican and/or Bermuda impacts instead, given Hadley displacement. Maybe something like Noel (2007) would evolve instead.
Users browsing this forum: abajan, Google [Bot], IsabelaWeather, riapal, Stratton23, TampaWxLurker and 54 guests