Low pressure trough along the NE Gulf Coast (Is Invest 98L)

[Aric Dunn]

Are you guys looking at the one south of the MS Delta or the one on the Panhandle Coast?

south of delta..

panhandle one is elongated and will be inland shortly.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Thanks...I thought I read someone talking about FL. I agree, that one south of the delta looks like the low level flow is starting to bend in its direction...although there is some energy west of the FL Keys that is competing a bit

[northjaxpro]

Thanks...I thought I read someone talking about FL. I agree, that one south of the delta looks like the low level flow is starting to bend in its direction...although there is some energy west of the FL Keys that is competing a bit

Yeah, I was about to mention that vorticity just to the nortwest off the northern coast of Cuba this morning, which is peaking my interest this morning as well.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Thanks...I thought I read someone talking about FL. I agree, that one south of the delta looks like the low level flow is starting to bend in its direction...although there is some energy west of the FL Keys that is competing a bit

Yeah, I was about to mention that vorticity just to the nortwest off the northern coast of Cuba this morning, which is peaking my interest this morning as well.

That area doesnt seem to have much vorticity associated with it though. Some good convergence

[tailgater]

I was wrong Yesterday thinking that the eastern Vort near Pensacola would dominate over the western one, models 97 me 3. Aric and others were right. Watching this little guy and the one just north of the western tip of Cuba, should bring some weather to south Fla.

[northjaxpro]

Thanks...I thought I read someone talking about FL. I agree, that one south of the delta looks like the low level flow is starting to bend in its direction...although there is some energy west of the FL Keys that is competing a bit

Yeah, I was about to mention that vorticity just to the nortwest off the northern coast of Cuba this morning, which is peaking my interest this morning as well.

That area doesnt seem to have much vorticity associated with it though. Some good convergence

Looks to me Scott, at least in the mid levels , that the vorticity I believe is beginning to increase there. The ssts down there near the Gulf Current loop are running around 90 degrees. Shear still seems at least marginally conducive down there I would watch that area closely in the short term. These are the type of systems that can sneak up and surprise rather quickly.

[Aric Dunn]

Here is what we have.. the oil rig has switched to SE direction. meaning the circ is at the surface and pressure is slowly falling.

wind field should continue to expand. Locally, close to the center it is likely closed and nearly completely pinched off the farther north you go.. Should see a TD today if things continue to the way they are.

[northjaxpro]

Our vort due south of the MS coast is beginning to coalesce and for the first time I am seeing a good covective burst near the llc. It is feeding off the piece of energy diving southeast toward it from the Louisiana coast.

Also, the area in the extreme Southeast GOM northwest of the NW coast of Cuba is really getting my interest currently. Convection is really increasing down there. There is definite rotation , at least in the mid levels in progress there. This is definitely an area to watch closely! It is in area of boiling ssts, that I mentioned a while ago in a previous post.

[Aric Dunn]

NHC should probably... you know.... say something..

or there will likely be TS making landfall over night lol

[Ivanhater]

NHC should probably... you know.... say something..

or there will likely be TS making landfall over night lol

https://i.ibb.co/0FVWt4h/CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-subregional-E-Gulf-Coast-02-14-56-Z-20200705-map-plot-30-1n-5-150.gif

This is looking more than suspicious

[Aric Dunn]

NHC should probably... you know.... say something..

or there will likely be TS making landfall over night lol

https://i.ibb.co/0FVWt4h/CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-subregional-E-Gulf-Coast-02-14-56-Z-20200705-map-plot-30-1n-5-150.gif

This is looking more than suspicious

yeah lol..

like 60 to 80 percent more than suspicious..

[northjaxpro]

NHC should probably... you know.... say something..

or there will likely be TS making landfall over night lol

https://i.ibb.co/0FVWt4h/CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-subregional-E-Gulf-Coast-02-14-56-Z-20200705-map-plot-30-1n-5-150.gif

The vort is looking pretty good right now. I would find it very incredulous if the NHC would not follow up with reference to this vort developing I will say that.

[Javlin]

Looking at MIMIC whatever it does should impact the Big Bend area a TS looks like the panhandle and E?

[Aric Dunn]

Looking at MIMIC whatever it does should impact the Big Bend area a TS looks like the panhandle and E?

it does appear to be caught in the flow around the larger GYRE. Could head towards big bend west to mobile.

steerinng would suggest such a track.

[psyclone]

Looks like a version of 2017's Emily (structure wise not landfall location). looks fairly harmless. perfect wish cast storm to break the heat. Let's see if it survives... Getting a couple morning showers off the gulf locally. heavier stuff has been to the north.

[SouthDadeFish]

Very interesting disturbance. These small systems can spin-up quickly. Right now, it looks like the convection is battling dry air, as a big outflow boundary is scooting off to the NE side of the system. However, it looks like there is still ongoing convection, potentially driven by a convergent flow on the west side of the system.

 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1279801156449992710

[northjaxpro]

This is one of the most interesting days I have seen in the Gulf of Mexico in quite awhile, with 2 active vigorous vortices in the Northeast GOM, and the area of interest in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico.

The vort in Apalachee Bay is just about on shore . I am fully expecting to see something shortly from NHC on the well developed vort south of the MS/AL coast.

I am expecting some type of mention as well in the 2:00 TWO on the area of interest in the Southeast GOM. This area has built up quickly since overnight into this morning, and there is definite mid-level rotation on satellite imagery.

[Aric Dunn]

oil rig just to the north of the center. has switched to ese. it appears we have a closed surface circ.

[Steve]

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES1 ... 0x1000.gif

Really nice banding is setting up on the S/SW side of the circulation. I don't think it will get strong enough to warrant classification in the Gulf, but you never know. I'm more interested to see what it does crossing land and then out into the SW Atlantic.

Here are two things to take away from this with the caveat that yeah, it's July. Last night was the full moon. Also the MJO is moving out of the circle/Phase 1 into Phase 2. We've saw the combination of the almost full moon and Phase 2 in June as well when we got Cristobal.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... r_wh.shtml

[psyclone]

outflow on the east, massive outflow boundary blasting northeast of the system...but that looks to be somewhat offset by evident inflow from the south and southwest and some banding features along with convective persistence. Certainly worth monitoring. If the convection can continue to pulse we might get a little something..