Low pressure trough along the NE Gulf Coast (Is Invest 98L)

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Re: Low pressure trough along the NE Gulf Coast

#141 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jul 05, 2020 8:49 am

ScottNAtlanta wrote:Are you guys looking at the one south of the MS Delta or the one on the Panhandle Coast?



south of delta..

panhandle one is elongated and will be inland shortly.
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Re: Low pressure trough along the NE Gulf Coast

#142 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sun Jul 05, 2020 8:52 am

Thanks...I thought I read someone talking about FL. I agree, that one south of the delta looks like the low level flow is starting to bend in its direction...although there is some energy west of the FL Keys that is competing a bit
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Re: Low pressure trough along the NE Gulf Coast

#143 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Jul 05, 2020 9:01 am

ScottNAtlanta wrote:Thanks...I thought I read someone talking about FL. I agree, that one south of the delta looks like the low level flow is starting to bend in its direction...although there is some energy west of the FL Keys that is competing a bit


Yeah, I was about to mention that vorticity just to the nortwest off the northern coast of Cuba this morning, which is peaking my interest this morning as well.
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Re: Low pressure trough along the NE Gulf Coast

#144 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sun Jul 05, 2020 9:04 am

northjaxpro wrote:
ScottNAtlanta wrote:Thanks...I thought I read someone talking about FL. I agree, that one south of the delta looks like the low level flow is starting to bend in its direction...although there is some energy west of the FL Keys that is competing a bit


Yeah, I was about to mention that vorticity just to the nortwest off the northern coast of Cuba this morning, which is peaking my interest this morning as well.


That area doesnt seem to have much vorticity associated with it though. Some good convergence
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Re: Low pressure trough along the NE Gulf Coast

#145 Postby tailgater » Sun Jul 05, 2020 9:08 am

I was wrong Yesterday thinking that the eastern Vort near Pensacola would dominate over the western one, models 97 me 3. Aric and others were right. Watching this little guy and the one just north of the western tip of Cuba, should bring some weather to south Fla.
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Re: Low pressure trough along the NE Gulf Coast

#146 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Jul 05, 2020 9:10 am

ScottNAtlanta wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
ScottNAtlanta wrote:Thanks...I thought I read someone talking about FL. I agree, that one south of the delta looks like the low level flow is starting to bend in its direction...although there is some energy west of the FL Keys that is competing a bit


Yeah, I was about to mention that vorticity just to the nortwest off the northern coast of Cuba this morning, which is peaking my interest this morning as well.



That area doesnt seem to have much vorticity associated with it though. Some good convergence


Looks to me Scott, at least in the mid levels , that the vorticity I believe is beginning to increase there. The ssts down there near the Gulf Current loop are running around 90 degrees. Shear still seems at least marginally conducive down there I would watch that area closely in the short term. These are the type of systems that can sneak up and surprise rather quickly.
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Re: Low pressure trough along the NE Gulf Coast

#147 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jul 05, 2020 9:34 am

Here is what we have.. the oil rig has switched to SE direction. meaning the circ is at the surface and pressure is slowly falling.

wind field should continue to expand. Locally, close to the center it is likely closed and nearly completely pinched off the farther north you go.. Should see a TD today if things continue to the way they are.

Image
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Re: Low pressure trough along the NE Gulf Coast

#148 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Jul 05, 2020 10:02 am

Our vort due south of the MS coast is beginning to coalesce and for the first time I am seeing a good covective burst near the llc. It is feeding off the piece of energy diving southeast toward it from the Louisiana coast.

Also, the area in the extreme Southeast GOM northwest of the NW coast of Cuba is really getting my interest currently. Convection is really increasing down there. There is definite rotation , at least in the mid levels in progress there. This is definitely an area to watch closely! It is in area of boiling ssts, that I mentioned a while ago in a previous post.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Sun Jul 05, 2020 10:10 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Low pressure trough along the NE Gulf Coast

#149 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jul 05, 2020 10:07 am

NHC should probably... you know.... say something..

or there will likely be TS making landfall over night lol

Image
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Re: Low pressure trough along the NE Gulf Coast

#150 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jul 05, 2020 10:10 am

Aric Dunn wrote:NHC should probably... you know.... say something..

or there will likely be TS making landfall over night lol

https://i.ibb.co/0FVWt4h/CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-subregional-E-Gulf-Coast-02-14-56-Z-20200705-map-plot-30-1n-5-150.gif


This is looking more than suspicious
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Re: Low pressure trough along the NE Gulf Coast

#151 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jul 05, 2020 10:12 am

Ivanhater wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:NHC should probably... you know.... say something..

or there will likely be TS making landfall over night lol

https://i.ibb.co/0FVWt4h/CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-subregional-E-Gulf-Coast-02-14-56-Z-20200705-map-plot-30-1n-5-150.gif


This is looking more than suspicious


yeah lol..

like 60 to 80 percent more than suspicious..
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Re: Low pressure trough along the NE Gulf Coast

#152 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Jul 05, 2020 10:12 am

Aric Dunn wrote:NHC should probably... you know.... say something..

or there will likely be TS making landfall over night lol

https://i.ibb.co/0FVWt4h/CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-subregional-E-Gulf-Coast-02-14-56-Z-20200705-map-plot-30-1n-5-150.gif


The vort is looking pretty good right now. I would find it very incredulous if the NHC would not follow up with reference to this vort developing I will say that.
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Re: Low pressure trough along the NE Gulf Coast

#153 Postby Javlin » Sun Jul 05, 2020 10:31 am

Looking at MIMIC whatever it does should impact the Big Bend area a TS looks like the panhandle and E?
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Re: Low pressure trough along the NE Gulf Coast

#154 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jul 05, 2020 10:35 am

Javlin wrote:Looking at MIMIC whatever it does should impact the Big Bend area a TS looks like the panhandle and E?


it does appear to be caught in the flow around the larger GYRE. Could head towards big bend west to mobile.

steerinng would suggest such a track.

Image
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Re: Low pressure trough along the NE Gulf Coast

#155 Postby psyclone » Sun Jul 05, 2020 10:40 am

Looks like a version of 2017's Emily (structure wise not landfall location). looks fairly harmless. perfect wish cast storm to break the heat. Let's see if it survives... Getting a couple morning showers off the gulf locally. heavier stuff has been to the north.
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Re: Low pressure trough along the NE Gulf Coast

#156 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sun Jul 05, 2020 10:43 am

Very interesting disturbance. These small systems can spin-up quickly. Right now, it looks like the convection is battling dry air, as a big outflow boundary is scooting off to the NE side of the system. However, it looks like there is still ongoing convection, potentially driven by a convergent flow on the west side of the system.

 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1279801156449992710


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Re: Low pressure trough along the NE Gulf Coast

#157 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Jul 05, 2020 10:44 am

This is one of the most interesting days I have seen in the Gulf of Mexico in quite awhile, with 2 active vigorous vortices in the Northeast GOM, and the area of interest in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico.

The vort in Apalachee Bay is just about on shore . I am fully expecting to see something shortly from NHC on the well developed vort south of the MS/AL coast.

I am expecting some type of mention as well in the 2:00 TWO on the area of interest in the Southeast GOM. This area has built up quickly since overnight into this morning, and there is definite mid-level rotation on satellite imagery.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Sun Jul 05, 2020 10:57 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Low pressure trough along the NE Gulf Coast

#158 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jul 05, 2020 10:56 am

oil rig just to the north of the center. has switched to ese. it appears we have a closed surface circ.
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Re: Low pressure trough along the NE Gulf Coast

#159 Postby Steve » Sun Jul 05, 2020 10:59 am

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES1 ... 0x1000.gif

Really nice banding is setting up on the S/SW side of the circulation. I don't think it will get strong enough to warrant classification in the Gulf, but you never know. I'm more interested to see what it does crossing land and then out into the SW Atlantic.

Here are two things to take away from this with the caveat that yeah, it's July. Last night was the full moon. Also the MJO is moving out of the circle/Phase 1 into Phase 2. We've saw the combination of the almost full moon and Phase 2 in June as well when we got Cristobal.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... r_wh.shtml
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Re: Low pressure trough along the NE Gulf Coast

#160 Postby psyclone » Sun Jul 05, 2020 11:07 am

outflow on the east, massive outflow boundary blasting northeast of the system...but that looks to be somewhat offset by evident inflow from the south and southwest and some banding features along with convective persistence. Certainly worth monitoring. If the convection can continue to pulse we might get a little something..
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