2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[gatorcane]

http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1283166472722878466?s=20

Models are literally chirping crickets for all basins across the work except the EPAC. Even in the EPAC the models have been a bit over zealous.

[Cpv17]

http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1283166472722878466?s=20

Models are literally chirping crickets for all basins across the work except the EPAC. Even in the EPAC the models have been a bit over zealous.

It’s a very boring period.

[gatorcane]

The GFS shear looks El-Niño-like if you ask me. It is ripping across the Caribbean with a huge TUTT over the Bahamas. No wonder the model can’t develop anything. Well that and the dry air too. We will need to give things some time to quiet down as far as the shear because this is downright hostile across the Caribbean and MDR. Again it is typical for this time of year but not of a hyperactive season that starts in July:

[CyclonicFury]

The GFS shear looks El-Niño-like if you ask me. It is ripping across the Caribbean with a huge TUTT over the Bahamas. No wonder the model can’t develop anything. Well that and the dry air too. We will need to give things some time to quiet down as far as the shear because this is downright hostile across the Caribbean and MDR. Again it is typical for this time of year but not of a hyperactive season that starts in July:

https://i.postimg.cc/XqrtyQQm/gfs-shear-atl-43.png

I'm seeing the opposite on the GEFS, anomalously easterly wind vectors for the entire forecast period over the deep tropics, which is a -ENSO like pattern. Once the SAL retreats north and the ITCZ lifts north, we should see the Atlantic come to life.

[AutoPenalti]

The GFS shear looks El-Niño-like if you ask me. It is ripping across the Caribbean with a huge TUTT over the Bahamas. No wonder the model can’t develop anything. Well that and the dry air too. We will need to give things some time to quiet down as far as the shear because this is downright hostile across the Caribbean and MDR. Again it is typical for this time of year but not of a hyperactive season that starts in July:
https://i.postimg.cc/XqrtyQQm/gfs-shear-atl-43.png

That’s 100% not El-Niño-like conditions.

[toad strangler]

http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1283166472722878466?s=20

Models are literally chirping crickets for all basins across the work except the EPAC. Even in the EPAC the models have been a bit over zealous.

[stormlover2013]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 71500&fh=0


Icon trying to hint at something

[TheProfessor]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2020071500&fh=0


Icon trying to hint at something

The Canadian had been showing a weak tropical wave in the Gulf around this time as well. It was less evident on the 12z run, but pretty clear on last night's 0z run.

[Ubuntwo]

The GFS comes in stronger with this eastern MDR thing, 1006mb.
The NNE-wardly motion is a climo anomaly but makes sense considering the state of trades in the area.
The Euro supports genesis here as well. A short-lived depression would be no surprise.

[TheProfessor]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/289981599448039425/732809677943078932/gfs_mslp_wind_eatl_fh0-114.gif
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/289981599448039425/732810422222061608/gfs_z850_vort_eatl_10.png
The GFS comes in stronger with this eastern MDR thing, 1006mb.
The NNE-wardly motion is a climo anomaly but makes sense considering the state of trades in the area.
The Euro supports genesis here as well. A short-lived depression would be no surprise.

I'm almost rooting for a named storm here, just to beat more records without(hopefully) threatening lives.

[IsabelaWeather]

The GFS comes in stronger with this eastern MDR thing, 1006mb.
The NNE-wardly motion is a climo anomaly but makes sense considering the state of trades in the area.
The Euro supports genesis here as well. A short-lived depression would be no surprise.

I posted in the other thread infrared satellite, it already looks like there is some weak rotation to it. 400-700mb is also moist. I wouldnt be shocked to see an invest really soon.

If any TC starts, it will be interesting to see if it really does die or if it can mosey on west.

Here is a better gif I made:

[Ubuntwo]

0z EPS is the most active run in the MDR yet

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

The GFS comes in stronger with this eastern MDR thing, 1006mb.
The NNE-wardly motion is a climo anomaly but makes sense considering the state of trades in the area.
The Euro supports genesis here as well. A short-lived depression would be no surprise.

I posted in the other thread infrared satellite, it already looks like there is some weak rotation to it. 400-700mb is also moist. I wouldnt be shocked to see an invest really soon.

If any TC starts, it will be interesting to see if it really does die or if it can mosey on west.

Here is a better gif I made:https://i.imgur.com/ya9ShCt.gif

Appears to be a close low at 850mb.
Very strong UL Divergence.

[Aric Dunn]

Looking at visible this morning.. it is probably about time we take that wave south of cape verde islands a little seriously

[GCANE]

Looking at latest GFS, it appears the current disturbance off Africa will remain off Africa and possibly move north toward the CV Islands.
Likely this will sweep SAL along the coast paving the way for the next LL vort forecast to hit the water heavy in less than 144 hrs.
GFS run-to-run is consistent with this one making it to the Carib.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1283381276616122368

[Aric Dunn]

[SFLcane]

The GFS shear looks El-Niño-like if you ask me. It is ripping across the Caribbean with a huge TUTT over the Bahamas. No wonder the model can’t develop anything. Well that and the dry air too. We will need to give things some time to quiet down as far as the shear because this is downright hostile across the Caribbean and MDR. Again it is typical for this time of year but not of a hyperactive season that starts in July:

https://i.postimg.cc/XqrtyQQm/gfs-shear-atl-43.png

Gatorcane, what exactly are you looking at? Shear is definitely not the issue right now across the basin. Once the sinking airmass moves out look for things to really get going.

[SFLcane]

https://i.ibb.co/Wv5FHh4/Capture.png

Nice monsoon surge.