2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[toad strangler]

The GFS shear looks El-Niño-like if you ask me. It is ripping across the Caribbean with a huge TUTT over the Bahamas. No wonder the model can’t develop anything. Well that and the dry air too. We will need to give things some time to quiet down as far as the shear because this is downright hostile across the Caribbean and MDR. Again it is typical for this time of year but not of a hyperactive season that starts in July:

https://i.postimg.cc/XqrtyQQm/gfs-shear-atl-43.png

Gatorcane, what exactly are you looking at? Shear is definitely not the issue right now across the basin. Once the sinking airmass moves out look for things to really get going.

He posted a 252 hour 200-850 mb GFS millibar sheer map when making those points. I assume that's is what he was looking at.

[SFLcane]

The GFS shear looks El-Niño-like if you ask me. It is ripping across the Caribbean with a huge TUTT over the Bahamas. No wonder the model can’t develop anything. Well that and the dry air too. We will need to give things some time to quiet down as far as the shear because this is downright hostile across the Caribbean and MDR. Again it is typical for this time of year but not of a hyperactive season that starts in July:

https://i.postimg.cc/XqrtyQQm/gfs-shear-atl-43.png

Gatorcane, what exactly are you looking at? Shear is definitely not the issue right now across the basin. Once the sinking airmass moves out look for things to really get going.

He posted a 252 hour 200-850 mb GFS millibar sheer map when making those points. I assume that's is what he was looking at.

Well he did mention El Niño like which is definitely not the case. The Caribbean for example has seen very low shear in July which is a precursor of things to come.

[alienstorm]

Nice robust wave with a circulation not sure it will survive the dry stable atmosphere as it treks through the Atlantic

https://weather.us/satellite/264-w-107- ... 1400z.html

[Steve]

GFS is out to 294 hours on TT. It spins up a first low off Africa and heads up to the Cabo Verdes. The low right behind it is just south of Puerto Rico, closed-ish, 2 weeks from yesterday.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 512&fh=294

Closer to home, ICON wants to hint at a closed low in the Gulf of Mexico during its run. First an ULL forms in the central GOM and then moves toward Texas. You can see the shape in the rainbands along the MS/Al Coastlines. This is valid for the 23rd or 7 1/2 days.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 512&fh=180

Here's a look at mslp and 10m winds. You can see the hook barely close off just before it goes in on the SC LA Coast. Not much, but we're talking a week. So it's something to keep an eye out for.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1512&fh=33

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Long-range EPS is starting to pick up on some (scattershot) activity by the end of the month:

This is by far the most active run in a while.

[Steve]

GFS ends its run with a closed 1010/1009mb low crossing extreme SFL and heading into the Gulf at 1008mb. Obviously July 31st (2 weeks from Friday) is fantasyland for models. But it tracks the low across the Atlantic to where it gets.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 512&fh=384

While the low comes up from the SE, you can see it crosses Florida East to West. Very limited chance this occurs, but it's on the model map.

[AutoPenalti]

Long-range EPS is starting to pick up on some (scattershot) activity by the end of the month:
https://i.ibb.co/jbGQ6tw/eps-cyclones-atlantic-360-2020071500-1.png
This is by far the most active run in a while.

I was about to mention where the heck you see how this run is the most active, until I saw the far right of the plot.

[floridasun78]

no talk about wave on 2pm outlook

[wxman57]

I see the 12Z GFS has a TS entering the Gulf past south Florida on the 31st. I'm sure we can believe it. The rest of July looks more "normal" for July. No activity. Things should pick up considerably by the second week of August, as they typically do. Until then, I'll enjoy the quiet and will take some time off work.

[aspen]

I see the 12Z GFS has a TS entering the Gulf past south Florida on the 31st. I'm sure we can believe it. The rest of July looks more "normal" for July. No activity. Things should pick up considerably by the second week of August, as they typically do. Until then, I'll enjoy the quiet and will take some time off work.

That’s from the strong wave the GFS and Euro have shown coming off the coast of Africa in 180-200 hours.

[Aric Dunn]

12z euro also showing similar to gfs.. i guess we can believe it now ? lol

[TheStormExpert]

I see the 12Z GFS has a TS entering the Gulf past south Florida on the 31st. I'm sure we can believe it. The rest of July looks more "normal" for July. No activity. Things should pick up considerably by the second week of August, as they typically do. Until then, I'll enjoy the quiet and will take some time off work.

Looks like the energy spits off the northern edge of a TW expected to exit the west coast of Africa on Monday.

[TheStormExpert]

12z euro also showing similar to gfs.. i guess we can believe it now ? lol

The Euro must be showing a different wave entering the SE Bahamas at day 10 because at day 10 the 12z GFS has it just at or west of 50°W in the Tropical Atlantic.

All I know is the waves seem to be getting more intense looking so the lid is likely to come off the next few weeks.

[NDG]

That's one heck of a strong TW that is on the Euro's long range forecast, it has been trending stronger with it.

[AutoPenalti]

That's one heck of a strong TW that is on the Euro's long range forecast, it has been trending stronger with it.

https://i.imgur.com/8r054Jm.gif

That looks like a 'cane.

[AnnularCane]

Yeah, for a minute there I thought it was an archived satellite image of some past TS or hurricane.

[stormlover2013]

It’s going to heat up soon to the people that always man I don’t know if the season will be active and etc come on man common sense it’s coming

[Aric Dunn]

12z EPS starts showing that wave develop as early as 120 to 140 hours. well east of the carrib. Not a lot of members but as always, it typically slowly increases as we get closer.. or decreases.

[Kingarabian]

Yup very interesting Euro run.

[TheProfessor]

Meanwhile the 12z GEPS shows some support to the TD that the ICON is trying to form in the Northwest GoM early next week.