2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[EquusStorm]

I dunno about anyone truly being off the hook this year, seems like there might be a LOT of hooks

[Shell Mound]

Why do you keep saying that Florida is off the hook? Florida, especially South Florida along with the Carolinas, and the North-Central Gulf Coast are hotspots for U.S. landfalling hurricanes.

If we don’t get a hurricane by November 30th then yes we’re off the hook.

The image I posted clearly indicates that the ECMWF ensemble members evince a strong consensus as to the tracks and formations of hurricanes in 2020. Note that hurricane-force winds are concentrated from the Carolinas northward and in the Gulf of Mexico, primarily from South TX to AL. Florida is right in the middle and seems relatively unscathed. Also, the chart I posted covers ASO and shows practically nothing in a) the Caribbean and b) between the Leeward Islands and (most of) the Bahamas. This means the ECMWF ensembles are implying unfavourable conditions for hurricanes in the Caribbean and/or the western MDR, with systems tending to attain hurricane status in the subtropics, that is, the GoM or along the Eastern Seaboard, as in 1954, a year that devastated the Carolinas and New England, but left FL unscathed. And the ECMWF ensembles suggest that this year we may not have a late season in the Caribbean, for some reason. I would like to know why the ECMWF ensembles and some other models suggest such a strong TUTT near the Leeward Islands, as well as why the ECMWF ensembles in particular show such an inactive Caribbean.

All kidding aside, you are analyzing these VERBATIM and there is nothing wrong with that. I kid. Good luck with your ever changing theories

Honestly, my actual prognosis for this season is here (and here), and the latest trends only reinforce it. I think we could see a record number of major landfalls over a wide area between South TX and southern New England, along with Mexico and the northeastern Caribbean (Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico). As I noted in my post above, “For example, we could see a) a powerful W-Caribbean system that crosses the Yucatán and strikes South TX; b) an intense CV long-tracker that strikes the NE Caribbean, Southeast FL (Miami area), and MS/AL; and c) a MH impact to the Mid-Atlantic that rapidly heads NNE from eastern NC to over or just west of NYC, à la 1821.” Normally, such a wide range of (intense) landfalls does not occur in a single season, but 2020 may prove the exception in this regard. The tracks of the systems observed thus far in 2020 do hint at a potentially wide range of landfalls in the Caribbean and the mainland U.S.

Perhaps the very strong TUTT, if properly timed and located in relation to other features such as TCHP, could favour some exceptionally intense major hurricanes in the SW Atlantic, the Caribbean, and/or the GoM. Many factors are setting up to favour long-tracking, intense hurricanes during ASO, regardless of overall activity. Maybe 2020 will be similar to 2005 in terms of numerous MH landfalls, including in some of the same regions, e.g., South Florida and the GoM; only this time the landfalls may be steady-state or strengthening Cat-4+ cyclones instead of weakening Cat-3 events. Additionally, the presence of blocking just off the Eastern Seaboard could favour some slow-moving systems in the col region, meaning even “weak” systems such as tropical storms could have plenty of moisture to work with. One should never underestimate the effects of even weak but lumbering depressions under certain circumstances.

I also have mentioned the possibility that we may see a landfall, possibly in South FL, that matches or exceeds the strength/intensity of the 1935 Labor Day hurricane. Perhaps in 2020 we may see storms in the Atlantic that one would normally expect to find in the Pacific and/or the Indian Ocean/Bay of Bengal, that is, in the league of or somewhat contending with the 1935 hurricane, Typhoon Haiyan, Hurricane Patricia, et al.—at the very least another Gilbert- or Wilma-type event at some point in the season. This could be the counter-2013: in which the rest of the world is quiet but all the intense activity is concentrated in the Atlantic.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

The long-range CFS forecast makes no sense to me. You're telling me this strong African Standing Wave that's been in place for months is gonna break down just like that as we head into ASO? Yeah, I don't see that happening.


What's even more head-scratching is that it still shows a generally active pattern in the Atlantic despite this:

Add on the fact that every other (sub)seasonal model maintains -VP over Africa/the western IO and it just makes the CFS even less believable:



Does anyone have an explanation as to why the CFS is such an outlier? Is it too progressive with the pattern, maybe?

[Steve]

Come on y'all. Don't take personal offense. He was describing the models and put the term in quotes. Don't be so state-sensitive. No one with any credibility would say that Florida gets a pass this year.

Shell,

September's maps look particularly ominous for those of us on or near the Gulf Coast. :/

[TheHurricaneGod]

The season's gonna wake up in a big way come late July/early August. Nothing has really deviated from a potentially hyperactive hurricane season for months. Haven't felt this worried since 2017.

[AutoPenalti]

Obviously it a general discussion about the background state to prior years, but pretty interesting nonetheless.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1283828536965570560



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1283835658700763136



 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1283831048455979008

[MarioProtVI]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1283828536965570560
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1283835658700763136
https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1283831048455979008

1970 was the start of -AMO. Don’t think he knows that, and preliminary analysis shows that it shows a bit more activity then originally thought.

[AutoPenalti]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1283828536965570560
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1283835658700763136
https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1283831048455979008

1970 was the start of -AMO. Don’t think he knows that, and preliminary analysis shows that it shows a bit more activity then originally thought.

He mentions that briefly here.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1283843293613297665

[Shell Mound]

Interestingly, ASO of 1970 also featured a large-scale TUTT, similar to that on the CFSv2 and some other models. Why? Cool SSTs in the central N ATL?

Also note the strong African easterly jet in 1970 and also projected to be in place in ASO of 2020. Perhaps that could offset the AWB/TUTT somewhat.


Tracks look rather similar to many model projections, too, especially in the Gulf of Mexico and along the Southeastern U.S. coastline. Interesting...

Note Celia: a system that rapidly intensified to a high-end Cat-3 or low-end Cat-4 shortly prior to landfall (in TX). A premonition of 2020, perhaps?




Could the cold pool north of the deep tropics result in a stronger TUTT near the islands in 2020, as in 1970?

[NDG]

https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1283124998358605827

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EdC9pDCWsAQXn75?format=jpg&name=large
The July ECMWF ensembles for ASO strongly suggest hurricane threats from the Carolinas to New England, along with homegrown ‘canes in the Gulf. FL is mostly “off the hook,” even in October, excluding a small portion of the NW Panhandle. Interestingly, the ensembles suggest a quiet Caribbean. Additionally, note that there seems to be a strong TUTT over and just north of the Leeward Islands, in the vicinity of the southernmost Sargasso Sea, given that there is a “gap” in the frequency of days with wind gusts of >70 mph (61 knots). The overall setup looks rather similar to that of 1954, which featured three hurricane impacts, including two majors (the notorious Carol and Hazel), from the Carolinas to New England, along with some homegrown development in the Gulf. Interestingly, 1954 both featured weak La Niña conditions and either a) did not have much of a CV season or b) the CV systems that did form curved OTS and presumably went undetected, given the pre-satellite era.

Why do you keep saying that Florida is off the hook? Florida, especially South Florida along with the Carolinas, and the North-Central Gulf Coast are hotspots for U.S. landfalling hurricanes.

If we don’t get a hurricane by November 30th then yes we’re off the hook.

The image I posted clearly indicates that the ECMWF ensemble members evince a strong consensus as to the tracks and formations of hurricanes in 2020. Note that hurricane-force winds are concentrated from the Carolinas northward and in the Gulf of Mexico, primarily from South TX to AL. Florida is right in the middle and seems relatively unscathed. Also, the chart I posted covers ASO and shows practically nothing in a) the Caribbean and b) between the Leeward Islands and (most of) the Bahamas. This means the ECMWF ensembles are implying unfavourable conditions for hurricanes in the Caribbean and/or the western MDR, with systems tending to attain hurricane status in the subtropics, that is, the GoM or along the Eastern Seaboard, as in 1954, a year that devastated the Carolinas and New England, but left FL unscathed. And the ECMWF ensembles suggest that this year we may not have a late season in the Caribbean, for some reason. I would like to know why the ECMWF ensembles and some other models suggest such a strong TUTT near the Leeward Islands, as well as why the ECMWF ensembles in particular show such an inactive Caribbean.

Do you have an actual picture of the forecast showing the TUTT? Can you share?

[abajan]

https://i.imgur.com/m6VxZFV.gif

This is really looking nice, to my noob eye. It looks like there is some rotation here; invest incoming?

400-700mb RH is moist as well.

Current GFS has some definite vorticity in this general area around 48hrs from now, but it seems to peter out ...

Fast forward to today and, to quote from the latest TWD, "Less convective activity is currently being observed with this wave compared to 24 hours ago as it is beginning to move through a more stable surrounding atmospheric environment." Just as I'd expected.

Oh well, that's July for ya.

[toad strangler]

https://i.imgur.com/m6VxZFV.gif

This is really looking nice, to my noob eye. It looks like there is some rotation here; invest incoming?

400-700mb RH is moist as well.

Current GFS has some definite vorticity in this general area around 48hrs from now, but it seems to peter out ...

Fast forward to today and, to quote from the latest TWD, "Less convective activity is currently being observed with this wave compared to 24 hours ago as it is beginning to move through a more stable surrounding atmospheric environment." Just as I'd expected.

Oh well, that's July for ya.

Nah, it can't be standard climo for this time of year. It MUST be some undetected condition that will cause the Atlantic to shut down right through October

[JPmia]

https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1283124998358605827

:eek:

https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1283737670963920897?s=21

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EdC9pDCWsAQXn75?format=jpg&name=large
The July ECMWF ensembles for ASO strongly suggest hurricane threats from the Carolinas to New England, along with homegrown ‘canes in the Gulf. FL is mostly “off the hook,” even in October, excluding a small portion of the NW Panhandle. Interestingly, the ensembles suggest a quiet Caribbean. Additionally, note that there seems to be a strong TUTT over and just north of the Leeward Islands, in the vicinity of the southernmost Sargasso Sea, given that there is a “gap” in the frequency of days with wind gusts of >70 mph (61 knots). The overall setup looks rather similar to that of 1954, which featured three hurricane impacts, including two majors (the notorious Carol and Hazel), from the Carolinas to New England, along with some homegrown development in the Gulf. Interestingly, 1954 both featured weak La Niña conditions and either a) did not have much of a CV season or b) the CV systems that did form curved OTS and presumably went undetected, given the pre-satellite era.

Is that what this graphic means? Chances of winds greater than 70mph? I'm not seeing that. I'm not exactly sure what this map is saying.

[storminabox]

I just want some activity to track somewhere. This complete lack of global TC activity is getting quite annoying.

[FireRat]

I just want some activity to track somewhere. This complete lack of global TC activity is getting quite annoying.

Don't worry, you're gonna have plenty to track soon enough!
It's 2020, the storms are just in midsummer quarantine!

[IsabelaWeather]

https://i.imgur.com/m6VxZFV.gif

This is really looking nice, to my noob eye. It looks like there is some rotation here; invest incoming?

400-700mb RH is moist as well.

Current GFS has some definite vorticity in this general area around 48hrs from now, but it seems to peter out ...

Fast forward to today and, to quote from the latest TWD, "Less convective activity is currently being observed with this wave compared to 24 hours ago as it is beginning to move through a more stable surrounding atmospheric environment." Just as I'd expected.

Oh well, that's July for ya.

Yeah, its totally void of convection. Too bad. I was really starting to think it would get going

[Ubuntwo]

Early August looks like the timeframe to watch for our first considerable, MDR system in the Atlantic.
Shear looks to relax basin wide, especially so in the MDR:

Much more favorable velocities too, far less subsidence over the western basin with a rising pool over Africa.

With all this in place it would be no surprise to see a long track AEW-borne system, as the CFS has pretty consistently insisted on.

[cycloneye]

Just in time before the peak of the season begins.What a change from cooler waters a few weeks ago to warmer now and is warming more.

[aspen]

I think all of the signs we’re seeing now are indicative that the Atlantic will enter its ASO active phase sometime within the next two weeks. Most models are suggesting at least one system could spawn from an AEW in the next ten days, SSTs in the MDR are rising to above-average levels, shear might be going down basin-wide within the next few weeks, and a favorable pattern for AEWs is expected for at least August. My unprofessional bet is that we will see the Atlantic’s first hurricane spawn from an AEW somewhere around Cuba, the Bahamas, the E Gulf, and the NW Caribbean by the end of July or start of August.

[toad strangler]

Just in time before the peak of the season begins.What a change from cooler waters a few weeks ago to warmer now and is warming more.

The MDR SST hand wringing last month was comical, as will be the SAL hand wringing this month.