ATL: HANNA - Remnants - Discussion

[catskillfire51]

Now we're talking.

https://i.imgur.com/dklxPJk.jpg

Makes me want to stay up to watch but I know there will be more to see tomorrow

[Steve]

Now we're talking.

https://i.imgur.com/dklxPJk.jpg

Makes me want to stay up to watch but I know there will be more to see tomorrow

Yeah, it's going to be good tomorrow. Saturday am will be the time to watch live feeds if we can get some.

[Ian2401]

big blow up of convection

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

System still not perfectly aligned vertically, hence the offset of the heaviest convection to the south of the LLC. It's not terrible, and they're moving closer together, but until Hanna can unify the MLC and the LLC in one place, expect only slow strengthening and pulsing convection.

Still a very good looking minimal TS.

[Ubuntwo]

System still not perfectly aligned vertically, hence the offset of the heaviest convection to the south of the LLC. It's not terrible, and they're moving closer together, but until Hanna can unify the MLC and the LLC in one place, expect only slow strengthening and pulsing convection.

Still a very good looking minimal TS.

I don't see much to indicate a tilted vortex? Mind giving some support? The offset convection is moving towards and rotating around the LLC, which seems to hint at a stacked system.

[Aric Dunn]

That is very distinct curved band building up around the center...

now things start to get interesting if that continues.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

System still not perfectly aligned vertically, hence the offset of the heaviest convection to the south of the LLC. It's not terrible, and they're moving closer together, but until Hanna can unify the MLC and the LLC in one place, expect only slow strengthening and pulsing convection.

Still a very good looking minimal TS.

I don't see much to indicate a tilted vortex? Mind giving some support? The offset convection is moving towards and rotating around the LLC, which seems to hint at a stacked system.

It was actually mentioned that the MLC is slightly offset to the SE of the LLC in the tropicaltidbits video for today, but I believe that still is partially the case when viewing the vorticity analysis of the GoM.

Here is the 850mb analysis:


By contrast, here is the 500mb analysis:

Here, there's a subtle offset of the vorticity between the two levels, which implies to me that the system may not be completely stacked just yet.
Admittedly, these screenshots are taken of the 03z analysis, and so may be slightly outdated. The energy at 500mb also appears to be shifting to being over the LLC, as can be seen when going back through the archived analysis for the area. However, there's still a bit of a sign in current IR imagery that the MLC is still slightly offset to the south of the LLC.

Here, the LLC is outlined in blue, while the majority of tonight's heaviest convection is outlined in grey.

Now, this does not necessarily mean that the MLC is within that heavier convection, but it still seems like the storm is not perfectly aligned to have that convection fire more directly over the LLC. It's definitely subtle, and as you said, that convection is indeed beginning to rotate around that LLC, but to me it still seems like Hanna is not quite perfectly stacked, and that may be another factor limiting intensification for now.

Please correct me if I'm off about this.

[Ubuntwo]

System still not perfectly aligned vertically, hence the offset of the heaviest convection to the south of the LLC. It's not terrible, and they're moving closer together, but until Hanna can unify the MLC and the LLC in one place, expect only slow strengthening and pulsing convection.

Still a very good looking minimal TS.

I don't see much to indicate a tilted vortex? Mind giving some support? The offset convection is moving towards and rotating around the LLC, which seems to hint at a stacked system.

It was actually mentioned that the MLC is slightly offset to the SE of the LLC in the tropicaltidbits video for today, but I believe that still is partially the case when viewing the vorticity analysis of the GoM.

Here is the 850mb analysis:
https://i.imgur.com/GkTbeQJ.png

By contrast, here is the 500mb analysis:
https://i.imgur.com/s5E9Cgm.png
Here, there's a subtle offset of the vorticity between the two levels, which implies to me that the system may not be completely stacked just yet.
Admittedly, these screenshots are taken of the 03z analysis, and so may be slightly outdated. The energy at 500mb also appears to be shifting to being over the LLC, as can be seen when going back through the archived analysis for the area. However, there's still a bit of a sign in current IR imagery that the MLC is still slightly offset to the south of the LLC.

Here, the LLC is outlined in blue, while the majority of tonight's heaviest convection is outlined in grey.
https://i.imgur.com/rrN2fmO.png
Now, this does not necessarily mean that the MLC is within that heavier convection, but it still seems like the storm is not perfectly aligned to have that convection fire more directly over the LLC. It's definitely subtle, and as you said, that convection is indeed beginning to rotate around that LLC, but to me it still seems like Hanna is not quite perfectly stacked, and that may be another factor limiting intensification for now.

Please correct me if I'm off about this.

Hadn't checked the CIMSS vorticity analysis, but yep that seems to check out (though it is a few hours old). The tight vortex with well-defined symmetrical outflow had me fooled - just goes to show that there's more than meets the eye. As long as convection persists over the center, though, this should become more vertically aligned and further intensify.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

TXNT27 KNES 240542
TCSNTL

A. 08L (HANNA)

B. 24/0531Z

C. 26.5N

D. 92.0W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.0/3.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...6/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT ARE ALSO
3.0 BASED ON RAPID 24 HOUR DEVELOPMENT. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...CLARK

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 JUL 2020 Time : 065024 UTC
Lat : 26:21:31 N Lon : 91:59:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 / 997.0mb/ 41.0kt

[Jr0d]

Been working all night, just took a look at Hanna fir the first time as an official tropical storm. I think the chances of rapid intensification are high right now. Looking heathy and ready to pop in my gumble amatuer opinion.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Been working all night, just took a look at Hanna fir the first time as an official tropical storm. I think the chances of rapid intensification are high right now. Looking heathy and ready to pop in my gumble amatuer opinion.

I think a 45moh to 50mph storm is happening right now.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Next recon leaves in 2 hours.

[Hurricane Mike]

Next recon leaves in 2 hours.

Excellent.

[Extratropical94]

Who would've thought that the season would already be looking like this in July...

[USTropics]

Fun fact: Since records dating back to 1842, Hannah is the first H storm to be active in the month of July. Tropical Storm Harvey in 2005, which formed on August 3rd, held the previous record for earliest named H storm.

[Hammy]

That is some massive outflow and I dare say this is starting to resemble Katrina while it was over the Bahamas.

[Chris90]

If I was in the potential landfall area I'd be watching closely. Hanna is producing some really nice convection and seems to be getting herself together. I think she might be one of those that puts on a good burst of intensification in the last 12-18 hours before landfall. The sooner she builds a core the more time she'll have to do some serious intensifying. I don't think it's unreasonable to say she's got about a 50/50 shot at hurricane status.

But since I'm tossing around my personal beliefs on her chance for hurricane status and she's threatening land, I'm just going to add the disclaimer that I'm an amateur with no degree in meteorology and you should refer to the officials for actual, legitimate information from experts.

[Nightwatch]

Who would've thought that the season would already be looking like this in July...

https://i.imgur.com/GVHdKdc.png

Makes me think off 2005 where we had TS Zeta on December 30th or so...

[Aric Dunn]

Alrighty ,,, now we might have a slightly bigger issue than a TS heading into saturday morning.. ....