Strong Tropical Wave SSE of Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 92L)

[aspen]

Looks like the Euro, UKMET, and ICON show development while the GFS, CMC, and NAVGEM do not. There are a few GFS ensembles that show some weak development now but most continue to show nothing.

I see three development scenarios with this wave:

1.) it’s a low-riding Caribbean cruiser that develops in 3-5 days (00z Euro)

2.) it develops in 4-6 days and gets pulled north (Euro/EPS ensembles)

3.) it does not develop within 6 days but will track through the Caribbean and could be something to watch as it nears the west Carib/Gulf of Mexico; this could explain why the GFS and CMC aren’t showing anything as of now

Or it doesn’t develop at all and that potential STC the Euro ensembles are showing off the east coast snipes the I name.

[PTrackerLA]

This is going to be interesting lol

 https://twitter.com/spann/status/1286624096529391616

[AutoPenalti]

This is going to be interesting lol

https://twitter.com/spann/status/1286624096529391616

and here I thought it was (aye-sae-ahs)

[EquusStorm]

I mean I'm still trying to figure out the proper pronunciation of Georges from 22 years ago so Spanish gives me little trouble but French, ouch haha

Joaquin was another one that was widely mispronounced

[gfsperpendicular]

This is going to be interesting lol

https://twitter.com/spann/status/1286624096529391616

Forget Isaias, have I been pronouncing Laura wrong all this time?

[AnnularCane]

They must have had several suggestions for the new I name. Surely they could have gone with one not so awkward to pronounce?

I really REALLY just want to call him Isaiah.

[OuterBanker]

This is going to be interesting lol

https://twitter.com/spann/status/1286624096529391616

I assume it's pronounced as the biblical name.

Of course we all remember Georges'

And the tsunami in Phuket Thailand (I'm sure there were a lot of newscasters saying "Uh, how do I pronounce that")

[sma10]

This is going to be interesting lol

https://twitter.com/spann/status/1286624096529391616

Yeesh. No one is going to pronounce it right

[Evil Jeremy]

I nominate "Ichabod" for the next replacement "I" name.

Anyway, I'm following this one closely. If it does head toward Florida, looks like it will be 10ish days from now. A long ways to go, though...

[SFLcane]

I nominate "Ichabod" for the next replacement "I" name.

Anyway, I'm following this one closely. If it does head toward Florida, looks like it will be 10ish days from now. A long ways to go, though...

Hey Jeremy!

Glad to see on here again. Yep this is one to watch much better moist environment surrounded it.It’s going to head west for a while.

[Cpv17]

Out of all the storms going on right now this one interests me the most.

[Siker]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 13.0N 44.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.07.2020 72 13.0N 44.6W 1008 31
0000UTC 28.07.2020 84 13.4N 48.8W 1007 33
1200UTC 28.07.2020 96 14.0N 53.2W 1006 35
0000UTC 29.07.2020 108 14.7N 56.9W 1004 39
1200UTC 29.07.2020 120 16.3N 60.9W 1001 42
0000UTC 30.07.2020 132 17.3N 64.7W 996 50
1200UTC 30.07.2020 144 17.9N 67.8W 993 51

[HurricaneAndre2008]

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 13.0N 44.6W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 27.07.2020 13.0N 44.6W WEAK

00UTC 28.07.2020 13.4N 48.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 28.07.2020 14.0N 53.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 29.07.2020 14.7N 56.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 29.07.2020 16.3N 60.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 30.07.2020 17.3N 64.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 30.07.2020 17.9N 67.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

[gatorcane]

The GFS doesn’t have much left of this in a few days as you can see by the simulated IR with a few pops SW of the Cape Verde islands. The real question is once it gets to the Western Atlantic later next week into next weekend, will this wave find some favorable conditions? The GFS says there won’t be enough left of this wave while the Euro insists it will develop.

Notice also from sat imagery how this wave is heavily embedded in the SAL. I expect convection to be on the downward trend the next few days:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... =truecolor

[CyclonicFury]

Definitely a concerning sign to see a possible CV longtracker in late July.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like the Euro, UKMET, and ICON show development while the GFS, CMC, and NAVGEM do not. There are a few GFS ensembles that show some weak development now but most continue to show nothing.

The way the models are acting seems completely backwards from normal. Typically the GFS and CMC would be developing everything and the Euro and UKMET would be more conservative. Not sure what the GFS and CMC aren't seeing. Every indication is that this wave is going to be a problem. Meanwhile, the NAVGEM keeps wanting to develop Gonzalo further and send it into South Florida.

I guess that's what we get with it being 2020. Nothing is normal.

2020 has been anything but a normal year so far. So for models to not act themselves or in the usual way we’re used to seeing is not a shocker to me. These models have been throwing fits since day one, just take the East Pacific for example.

[SouthFLTropics]

12z ICON still likes this one. 981MB on the North coast of Hispaniola in 180 hours.

[TheStormExpert]

I nominate "Ichabod" for the next replacement "I" name.

Anyway, I'm following this one closely. If it does head toward Florida, looks like it will be 10ish days from now. A long ways to go, though...

Hey Jeremy!

Glad to see on here again. Yep this is one to watch much better moist environment surrounded it.It’s going to head west for a while.

This one is definitely going to have a much more favorable environment as a favorable Kelvin Wave passes. The GFS is lost in my opinion.

[sma10]

The GFS doesn’t have much left of this in a few days as you can see by the simulated IR with a few pops SW of the Cape Verde islands. The real question is once it gets to the Western Atlantic later next week into next weekend, will this wave find some favorable conditions? The GFS says there won’t be enough left of this wave while the Euro insists it will develop.

Notice also from sat imagery how this wave is heavily embedded in the SAL. I expect convection to be on the downward trend the next few days:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... =truecolor

https://i.postimg.cc/j5mpfcFd/gfs-ir-atl-13.png

I'm not sure the GFS performance this year fills me with confidence that it is prepared to pull a coup over the ICON/UK/EURO alliance

[Cpv17]

I nominate "Ichabod" for the next replacement "I" name.

Anyway, I'm following this one closely. If it does head toward Florida, looks like it will be 10ish days from now. A long ways to go, though...

Hey Jeremy!

Glad to see on here again. Yep this is one to watch much better moist environment surrounded it.It’s going to head west for a while.

This one is definitely going to have a much more favorable environment as a favorable Kelvin Wave passes. The GFS is lost in my opinion.

The GFS has been lost for a while now. It can’t even see genesis till it’s already happening.