Interesting flareup in the GOM this morning

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
abajan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4247
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Barbados

Interesting flareup in the GOM this morning

#1 Postby abajan » Tue Oct 28, 2003 5:10 am

Image

I haven't checked the animation so I don't know if there's any rotation but it sure looks like something's cooking up there.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146106
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#2 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 28, 2003 6:54 am

Surely looks impressive that area but that is a cold front that has made it into the GOM and the divergent flow is causing that flareup but nothing is cooking and no rotation is noted in that area however rain for Florida is a sure thing.
Last edited by cycloneye on Tue Oct 28, 2003 7:09 am, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 23008
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

#3 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 28, 2003 6:55 am

No rotation at all - just a tropical wave zipping up the frontal boundary into Florida. It'll be moving across Florida during the day today, producing a lot of rain for the Peninsula.
0 likes   

User avatar
vbhoutex
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 29113
Age: 73
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
Location: Cypress, TX
Contact:

#4 Postby vbhoutex » Tue Oct 28, 2003 8:14 am

I wonder if that is the one Katdaddy is saying the GFS is picking up on?? Sure won't be coming this way!!!
0 likes   
Skywarn, C.E.R.T.
Please click below to donate to STORM2K to help with the expenses of keeping the site going:
Image

Rainband

#5 Postby Rainband » Tue Oct 28, 2003 8:20 am

Gonna be wet here!!!! 90% today and tonight :eek: . http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc ... ort_Richey
0 likes   

User avatar
stormchazer
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2462
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 12:00 pm
Location: Lakeland, Florida
Contact:

#6 Postby stormchazer » Tue Oct 28, 2003 8:21 am

Yep looking SW from Tampa, I see a deluge approaching!!
0 likes   
The posts or stuff said are NOT an official forecast and my opinion alone. Please look to the NHC and NWS for official forecasts and products.

Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged

Opinions my own.

Rainband

#7 Postby Rainband » Tue Oct 28, 2003 8:29 am

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
600 AM EST TUE OCT 28 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TOWARDS NORTH FLORIDA TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THIS LOW INTENSIFIES. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM THIS
LOW PRESSURE AREA...CROSSING CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY..AND THEN CENTRAL AND SOUTH
FLORIDA TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...DEEP
MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD PREVENT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM FORMATION...HOWEVER SOME STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME
STRONG WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH BEING THE MAIN THREAT. IN
ADDITION...ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS AND SHORT LIVED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ALL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN ORGANIZED LINES...LEADING
TO PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS
IN SOME LOCATIONS.


RESIDENTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA PLANNING OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES TODAY SHOULD STAY ALERT AND CLOSELY MONITOR LATER
FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. BE PREPARED TO MOVE INDOORS IF
WEATHER CONDITIONS DETERIORATE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:

THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT
A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY OVER CHARLOTTE AND
LEE COUNTY. SKIES WILL CLEAR WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AFTER THAT THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

$$

EJ
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146106
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#8 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 28, 2003 8:35 am

But Johnnathan the important thing is that nothing tropical will develop from that area due to strong upper shear.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Josephine96

#9 Postby Josephine96 » Tue Oct 28, 2003 9:57 am

Lots of rain and potential severe weather coming with those short lived tornadoes huh. Could get kinda wet around here..
0 likes   

ColdFront77

#10 Postby ColdFront77 » Tue Oct 28, 2003 2:09 pm

The pressure is down to 29.71 inches here.

As of 1:00pm EST, the low pressure in the eastern Gulf of Mexico was 1004 mb, 29.65 in.
0 likes   

User avatar
Lindaloo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 22658
Joined: Sat Mar 29, 2003 10:06 am
Location: Pascagoula, MS

#11 Postby Lindaloo » Tue Oct 28, 2003 2:53 pm

That front blew through here a few days ago. Brought out severe weather watches and tornado watches. We only received about a quarter inch of rain from it though, but am enjoying the cool temps it left behind. :)
0 likes   

User avatar
Stormsfury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10549
Age: 53
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
Location: Summerville, SC

#12 Postby Stormsfury » Tue Oct 28, 2003 6:44 pm

Josephine96 wrote:Lots of rain and potential severe weather coming with those short lived tornadoes huh. Could get kinda wet around here..


That same upper divergent shear and the overall setup in North Florida earlier today was what prompted the SPC to issue the tornado watch.

SF
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot], mcheer23, Pelicane, saila, Stratton23, TampaWxLurker, TheBurn, Tireman4 and 122 guests