ATL: HANNA - Remnants - Discussion

[catskillfire51]

I'm guessing they will up it to 60 kt at the next advisory. Probably no higher though.

Do you think it's only jumped up that little amount or is it just NHC being conservative without recon?

[Aric Dunn]

There is about to a rude awaking in the morning for many and possibly much more serious problem,

They should seriously upgrade right about now..

[CrazyC83]

I'm guessing they will up it to 60 kt at the next advisory. Probably no higher though.

Do you think it's only jumped up that little amount or is it just NHC being conservative without recon?

Probably the latter. I don't see barring something that really sticks out (i.e. a ship or oil rig reporting a pressure of like 985 or lower) them jumping to hurricane status without Recon.

[storminabox]

Oh my....Eye see you?

https://i.imgur.com/A9mhFCX.jpg

This really doesn’t look like a July system.

[ronyan]

Anyone remember the June 2010 storm called Alex that looked like a cat 4 but was a 2.

[Chris90]

There is about to a rude awaking in the morning for many and possibly much more serious problem,

They should seriously upgrade right about now..

https://i.ibb.co/D1RvY5S/33333.gif

That radar loop is really impressive. Eye and eyewall tightened pretty quickly. A pressure drop of 4-6mb could potentially be associated with that development. It's going to be a long night.

[Aric Dunn]

Anyone remember the June 2010 storm called Alex that looked like a cat 4 but was a 2.

Sure do.. and it would have very rapidly become more than a cat 2..

it was undergoing RI when it made landfall at 105 mph I think..

[CrazyC83]

Not saying this will happen, but in the same area at the same time of year, Hurricane Celia in 1970 fell from 988 mb to 945 mb in about 14 hours (winds went from 75 kt to 120 kt).

[ronyan]

Anyone remember the June 2010 storm called Alex that looked like a cat 4 but was a 2.

Sure do.. and it would have very rapidly become more than a cat 2..

it was undergoing RI when it made landfall and 105 mph I think..

Yeah I watched that one all the way thinking it would be a 4 because it had pretty ideal conditions. It had some odd internal structure because I think pressure was 940s.

[FLpanhandle91]

I always appreciate radar in this situation. Seems as though a good bit of the rapidly improving structure is hidden under CDO on IR.

[Chris90]

Not saying this will happen, but in the same area at the same time of year, Hurricane Celia in 1970 fell from 988 mb to 945 mb in about 14 hours (winds went from 75 kt to 120 kt).

Interestingly enough, 1970 is the top analog for this year based on SSTA analysis over in the analog section at Tropical Tidbits.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Is it too far to get velocity from radar? NHC seems to upgrade based off radar in lieu of recon.

[mcheer23]

It’s going to be hard for storm chasers to get in position with where this is making landfall. Not many roads

[Fancy1001]

Let's all be glad that Hanna doesn't have an extra day or so to strengthen.

[TheProfessor]

Not saying this will happen, but in the same area at the same time of year, Hurricane Celia in 1970 fell from 988 mb to 945 mb in about 14 hours (winds went from 75 kt to 120 kt).

My dad was in Celia, it gave him nightmares for years.

[EquusStorm]

Already seeing some 70mph velocity bins on Radarscope north of center, but obviously that's going to be at ~18k ft

[CrazyC83]

Already seeing some 70mph velocity bins on Radarscope north of center, but obviously that's going to be at ~18k ft

It's too far away to get any reliable wind measurements. Once it gets to closer to 10,000 feet, it becomes more reliable.

[Hurricane Mike]

Not to be a wet blanket, but Hanna still needs to strengthen her eyewall on radar, and wrap convection better on her western side. It's impressive, and strengthening, but I still don't think it's a hurricane yet, and it still needs one more good burst.

[jasons2k]

Well i think it's pretty obvious at this point that the globals will win-out. Landfall south of Corpus. But I think most of us knew that by this morning

[CrazyC83]

Well i think it's pretty obvious at this point that the globals will win-out. Landfall south of Corpus. But I think most of us knew that by this morning

This could be closer to Brownsville than Corpus Christi at this rate.