ATL: HANNA - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

Major infeed as shown by the nearly off-scale rain rate in the feeder band.

[drezee]

Air Force on the way

They did a test flight and landed.

30 minutes

TROPICAL STORM HANNA
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 75
A. 25/1730Z
B. AFXXX 0708A HANNA
C. 25/1530Z
D. 27.4N 96.9W
E. 25/1700Z TO 25/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[Aric Dunn]

The discussions say 85 to 90 kts at 7000 to 8000 in low convection areas..

umm the northern eyewall at 5000 to 6000 Feet has been showing 110 + mph consistently now in heavy bands..

[ColdMiser123]

Should have another 4 more hours to intensify

Guidance has Hanna making landfall later at this point, 6z HMON didn't make landfall until after 0z. HWRF closer to 21z. If that is accurate then it should be closer to 6-10 more hours left over water. In a situation where pressure falls are significant, every hour will count.

I'm not confident it will intensify the last few hours though, lots of land interaction could occur and halt progress

Land friction in this case should tighten the circulation and reduce the RMW which in turn should bump up the winds quite a bit. I would not be surprised at all to see intensification to the moment of landfall.

[Hurricane Mike]

Landfall delayed to 10-12 hrs from now per NHC

[Highteeld]

Guidance has Hanna making landfall later at this point, 6z HMON didn't make landfall until after 0z. HWRF closer to 21z. If that is accurate then it should be closer to 6-10 more hours left over water. In a situation where pressure falls are significant, every hour will count.

I'm not confident it will intensify the last few hours though, lots of land interaction could occur and halt progress

Land friction in this case should tighten the circulation and reduce the RMW which in turn should bump up the winds quite a bit. I would not be surprised at all to see intensification to the moment of landfall.

It would if dry air weren't such an issue like it is today. Harvey did very well with frictional convergence, but it was closed off better than hanna. we'll see

[Cataegis96]

Landfall delayed to 10-12 hrs from now per NHC

Was just going to mention this. Not good.

[shiny-pebble]

Looks like a ragged eye is clearing out on visible

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[GCANE]

Some how I am just not understanding the dry-air / shear commentaries.
Big towers are still obscuring most part of the eye.

[Aric Dunn]

Landfall delayed to 10-12 hrs from now per NHC

Was just going to mention this. Not good.

especially if the eye contracts down to 10 to 15 miles that will keep the potential of this reaching 100 mph in the high chance.

[Aric Dunn]

Some how I am just not understanding the dry-air / shear commentaries.
Big towers are still obscuring most part of the eye.

https://i.imgur.com/I3ZuQ7V.gif

https://i.imgur.com/YWfawue.png

That is because people think that every void is a dry air..

which its not.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Looks like the western part of the storm is becoming a bit ragged on IR. Likely some interaction with dry air over Texas, which seems to have been one of its limiting factors. Great that it did not have a perfect environment up to landfall. However, not good that landfall has been delayed by 10-12 hours. Hopefully, it intensifies slowly.

[aspen]

Landfall delayed to 10-12 hrs from now per NHC

Was just going to mention this. Not good.

especially if the eye contracts down to 10 to 15 miles that will keep the potential of this reaching 100 mph in the high chance.

Why would the eye contract that much in this short of a time span? It’s currently around 30 miles across, and I don’t see it changing size much this close to landfall.

[Aric Dunn]

Was just going to mention this. Not good.

especially if the eye contracts down to 10 to 15 miles that will keep the potential of this reaching 100 mph in the high chance.

Why would the eye contract that much in this short of a time span? It’s currently around 30 miles across, and I don’t see it changing size much this close to landfall.

Land friction..

it has already contracted looking at long radar loops.

[stormlover2013]

If she had another day then it would've been a major at landfall maybe a cat 4.

Folks in SE TX lucked out.

Upper Texas coast will has plenty of time this year!! Many opportunities arise.

[Highteeld]

Yeah, I think the eye has shrunk a bit over the last 3 or 4 hours based off radar as well, maybe 6-7 miles or so.

[GrayLancer18]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1287042466680467457




If the rate is 35mph in a 24-hour period and if the NHC says there's still 10-12 hours, Hanna could peak at 90mph before landfall.

[GCANE]

Strong 1 hr hail swaths in the feeder band

[Highteeld]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1287044615846100993

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1287044615846100993