ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[aspen]

With the exception of the Euro (which gets really unlucky and rams this system in every island in the northern Caribbean), all of the global models show development in 2-4 days, followed by a Jose-like turn to the north and pass near the NW Leeward Islands, and then a mix of an Irene/Dorian track north of the Caribbean and through the Bahamas. The GFS and NAVGEM are the most aggressive and show a Cat 1 hurricane in 5 days passing near Antigua and Barbuda; the CMC and ICON are a little tamer and show a run-of-the-mill TS in that region. The CMC does get this to a hurricane, but the 06z ICON model doesn’t go far enough out to see whether it follows suit.

I’m starting to get Irene vibes from 92L. The tracks are surprisingly similar as of now, and there’s a decent chance future Isaias could become a Cat 3 and threaten the East Coast if it adheres to the models.

[hurrtracker79]

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/1287367169093840897

[toad strangler]

6z GFS ensembles show a heavy signal for a classic climatological correct re-curving cyclone that scrapes Hatteras aka the "Cow Catcher" on it's way to the N Atlantic

[NDG]

I would expect a trend towards the west by the models as time goes by.

[Evil Jeremy]

Barely misses SFL just offshore.

https://iili.io/dTjJRt.gif

https://iili.io/dTj2bn.gif

Does this HAFS model have a known good/bad track record yet? This is the first time I'm seeing it.... I think I saw someone earlier say that it's intended to replace the HWRF (which itself was a replacement for GFDL) but otherwise it's new to me. Seems to be consistent on taking this to SE FL, but the timeframe is laughably faster than the rest of the model suite.

[drezee]

I would expect a trend towards the west by the models as time goes by.

On cue...

 https://twitter.com/_jwall/status/1287369369530413057

[St0rmTh0r]

How many times has GFS had to adjust left the closer to landfall a storm gets? I can name several.

[SFLcane]

This run not done yet but it’s seems to be doing a stair step towards the southeast.

[MetroMike]

https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/1287367169093840897

A weaker system getting into the Caribbean is most certainly doomed, reguardless of what the say about the lower shear there.

[cybercane]

https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/1287367169093840897

A weaker system getting into the Caribbean is most certainly doomed, reguardless of what the say about the lower shear there.

that's so not true lol

[TheStormExpert]

At this point a weaker further south and west solution might be more likely a lot like the operational 00z Euro run shows in my opinion.

[toad strangler]

At this point a weaker further south and west solution might be more likely a lot like the operational 00z Euro run shows in my opinion.

Yesterday you were reminding us that you thought the Carolina's were favored in "this set up"

[karenfromheaven]

Barely misses SFL just offshore.

https://iili.io/dTjJRt.gif

https://iili.io/dTj2bn.gif

Does this HAFS model have a known good/bad track record yet? This is the first time I'm seeing it.... I think I saw someone earlier say that it's intended to replace the HWRF (which itself was a replacement for GFDL) but otherwise it's new to me. Seems to be consistent on taking this to SE FL, but the timeframe is laughably faster than the rest of the model suite.

HAFS is a new development intended to bring 5 day accuracy to a 7 day forecast.

White paper: http://www.hfip.org/documents/HFIP_Stra ... 190625.pdf
Model Viewer: https://storm.aoml.noaa.gov/basin/?projectName=BASIN

[SFLcane]

Intensifying TC heading WNW...

[Aric Dunn]

Intensifying TC heading WNW...

https://iili.io/dTer92.gif

Forgot about this model.. I remember it doing really well last year.

Does appear that there is plenty of 500 mb ridging here to be a SE Florida threat.

but it is still too far out.

[HurricaneFrances04]

12Z GFS coming in much stronger through 42 hours

And also looks further north. Assuming nothing changes, may not impact any land on this run

[Shell Mound]

At this point a weaker further south and west solution might be more likely a lot like the operational 00z Euro run shows in my opinion.

This is the same ECMWF that, like the GFS, failed to detect Gonzalo and significantly underestimated the organisation/intensification of Hanna.

If anything, 92L is likely to become (significantly?) stronger than many people anticipate at this time. Of course, as is usual, “time will tell.”

[HurricaneFrances04]

No model has performed worse than the NAVGEM, which until 18Z yesterday had Gonzalo becoming a major hurricane in the GOM

[SFLcane]

12Z GFS coming in much stronger through 42 hours

And also looks further north. Assuming nothing changes, may not impact any land on this run

No ridging.

[AutoPenalti]

There’s a lack of ridging on the 12z...