ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I do wonder how realistic that intensity is given all the SAL that's around? I suppose we'll find out.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

:eek: 926mb

https://iili.io/dTsjwb.gif

Hopefully that’s not happening. Would that be a Cat 5?

Yup, a cat 5, pressure wise.

[cycloneye]

:eek: 950’s

https://iili.io/dTsjwb.gif

Hi Adrian. Do you have the link to this experimental model?

[jlauderdal]

:eek: 950’s

https://iili.io/dTsjwb.gif

the hwrf used to be the model we could beat up on for intensity, now its this one. the hwrf isnt afraid to go sub 940 multiple times a season, it was rarely correct.

[SFLcane]

:eek: 950’s

https://iili.io/dTsjwb.gif

Hi Adrian. Do you have the link to this experimental model?

Hi my friend sure do. I am following this model since it did so well last season. It has a major hurricane 950’s just of FL coastline. We shall see.

https://storm.aoml.noaa.gov/basin/?projectName=BASIN

[SFLcane]

:eek: 950’s

https://iili.io/dTsjwb.gif

the hwrf used to be the model we could beat up on for intensity, now its this one. the hwrf isnt afraid to go sub 940 multiple times a season, it was rarely correct.

950’s is around the correct pressure.

[HurricaneFrances04]

:eek: 950’s

https://iili.io/dTsjwb.gif

Hi Adrian. Do you have the link to this experimental model?

Hi my friend sure do. I am following this model since it did so well last season. It has a major hurricane 950’s just of FL coastline. We shall see.

https://storm.aoml.noaa.gov/basin/?projectName=BASIN

Some pretty good stuff on that site, including verification images. Example: https://i.imgur.com/IvWlOv2.gif

[otowntiger]

Until 92l slows down I don't think any model wil be accurate. Until is slows and consolidates no model will get a handle on it.

Or it may not even form, if it doesn’t slow down.

[Hurricaneman]

At 36 hrs on the 18zGFS this is SW of 12z at 42 hrs

[chaser1]

Global models are more than capable of handling fast moving and systems that don’t have an LLC or haven’t consolidated. That is definitely a misconception some have about the models. Here are the 18Z models from SFWMD:

https://i.postimg.cc/wTPfMNd2/storm-92.gif

That's okay, I'll pass on those. At the present moment I'd be more inclined to look at the BAMS or BAMM

[HurricaneFrances04]

At 36 hrs on the 18zGFS this is SW of 12z at 42 hrs

Another run showing weakening near the Bahamas.

[Evan_Wilson]

If this system develops it appears it’s going to be an absolutely massive storm, correct me if I’m wrong.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

If this system develops it appears it’s going to be an absolutely massive storm, correct me if I’m wrong.

You aren't wrong. It'll be a true sea monster.

[abajan]

:eek: 926mb

https://iili.io/dTsjwb.gif

Hopefully that’s not happening. Would that be a Cat 5?

Yup, a cat 5, pressure wise.

It would depend on ambient pressure, but it certainly seems like 926 mb would be Cat5.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1287512930389557249

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Hopefully that’s not happening. Would that be a Cat 5?

Yup, a cat 5, pressure wise.

It would depend on ambient pressure, but it certainly seems like 926 mb would be Cat5.

True, storm size also plays a role in intensity. My comment was in a general sense what such a pressure might indicate.

[TheProfessor]

18z GFS possibly beginning to change to the Euro? We'll have to watch to see if a trend develops, but obviously it's much weaker and a bit further west this run. This will definitely be a storm where the short term will decide where it goes in the long term. Where the storm begins to consolidate will be important.

[jlauderdal]

If this system develops it appears it’s going to be an absolutely massive storm, correct me if I’m wrong.

You aren't wrong. It'll be a true sea monster.

Typhoon Tip is the baseline

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

[sma10]

Global models are more than capable of handling fast moving and systems that don’t have an LLC or haven’t consolidated. That is definitely a misconception some have about the models. Here are the 18Z models from SFWMD:

https://i.postimg.cc/wTPfMNd2/storm-92.gif

This is correct, and is definitely a common misconception. Having said that, the models this year, for some reason, appear to be showing more uncertainty than usual. The failure to sniff out Hanna as a viable entity 72 hrs prior to landfalling as a hurricane is just a little concerning.

[sma10]

If this system develops it appears it’s going to be an absolutely massive storm, correct me if I’m wrong.

You aren't wrong. It'll be a true sea monster.

Typhoon Tip is the baseline

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

Someone with more skills than I should overlay Tip in the Gulf of Mexico to get an idea of how enormous he was