ATL: ISAIAS - Models

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Hybridstorm_November2001
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#441 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Sun Jul 26, 2020 4:20 pm

I do wonder how realistic that intensity is given all the SAL that's around? I suppose we'll find out.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#442 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Sun Jul 26, 2020 4:20 pm

pgoss11 wrote:
SFLcane wrote::eek: 926mb

https://iili.io/dTsjwb.gif

Hopefully that’s not happening. Would that be a Cat 5?


Yup, a cat 5, pressure wise.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#443 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 26, 2020 4:21 pm

SFLcane wrote::eek: 950’s

https://iili.io/dTsjwb.gif



Hi Adrian. Do you have the link to this experimental model?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#444 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Jul 26, 2020 4:23 pm

SFLcane wrote::eek: 950’s

https://iili.io/dTsjwb.gif

the hwrf used to be the model we could beat up on for intensity, now its this one. the hwrf isnt afraid to go sub 940 multiple times a season, it was rarely correct.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#445 Postby SFLcane » Sun Jul 26, 2020 4:23 pm

cycloneye wrote:
SFLcane wrote::eek: 950’s

https://iili.io/dTsjwb.gif



Hi Adrian. Do you have the link to this experimental model?


Hi my friend sure do. I am following this model since it did so well last season. It has a major hurricane 950’s just of FL coastline. We shall see.

https://storm.aoml.noaa.gov/basin/?projectName=BASIN
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#446 Postby SFLcane » Sun Jul 26, 2020 4:24 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
SFLcane wrote::eek: 950’s

https://iili.io/dTsjwb.gif

the hwrf used to be the model we could beat up on for intensity, now its this one. the hwrf isnt afraid to go sub 940 multiple times a season, it was rarely correct.


950’s is around the correct pressure.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#447 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Sun Jul 26, 2020 4:32 pm

SFLcane wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
SFLcane wrote::eek: 950’s

https://iili.io/dTsjwb.gif



Hi Adrian. Do you have the link to this experimental model?


Hi my friend sure do. I am following this model since it did so well last season. It has a major hurricane 950’s just of FL coastline. We shall see.

https://storm.aoml.noaa.gov/basin/?projectName=BASIN


Some pretty good stuff on that site, including verification images. Example: https://i.imgur.com/IvWlOv2.gif
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#448 Postby otowntiger » Sun Jul 26, 2020 4:33 pm

OuterBanker wrote:Until 92l slows down I don't think any model wil be accurate. Until is slows and consolidates no model will get a handle on it.

Or it may not even form, if it doesn’t slow down. :wink:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#449 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Jul 26, 2020 4:48 pm

At 36 hrs on the 18zGFS this is SW of 12z at 42 hrs
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#450 Postby chaser1 » Sun Jul 26, 2020 5:10 pm

gatorcane wrote:Global models are more than capable of handling fast moving and systems that don’t have an LLC or haven’t consolidated. That is definitely a misconception some have about the models. Here are the 18Z models from SFWMD:

https://i.postimg.cc/wTPfMNd2/storm-92.gif


That's okay, I'll pass on those. At the present moment I'd be more inclined to look at the BAMS or BAMM
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#451 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Sun Jul 26, 2020 5:16 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:At 36 hrs on the 18zGFS this is SW of 12z at 42 hrs


Another run showing weakening near the Bahamas.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#452 Postby Evan_Wilson » Sun Jul 26, 2020 5:25 pm

If this system develops it appears it’s going to be an absolutely massive storm, correct me if I’m wrong.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#453 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Sun Jul 26, 2020 5:26 pm

Evan_Wilson wrote:If this system develops it appears it’s going to be an absolutely massive storm, correct me if I’m wrong.


You aren't wrong. It'll be a true sea monster.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#454 Postby abajan » Sun Jul 26, 2020 5:29 pm

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:
pgoss11 wrote:
SFLcane wrote::eek: 926mb

https://iili.io/dTsjwb.gif

Hopefully that’s not happening. Would that be a Cat 5?


Yup, a cat 5, pressure wise.

It would depend on ambient pressure, but it certainly seems like 926 mb would be Cat5.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#455 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 26, 2020 5:30 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#456 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Sun Jul 26, 2020 5:30 pm

abajan wrote:
Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:
pgoss11 wrote:Hopefully that’s not happening. Would that be a Cat 5?


Yup, a cat 5, pressure wise.

It would depend on ambient pressure, but it certainly seems like 926 mb would be Cat5.


True, storm size also plays a role in intensity. My comment was in a general sense what such a pressure might indicate.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#457 Postby TheProfessor » Sun Jul 26, 2020 5:38 pm

18z GFS possibly beginning to change to the Euro? We'll have to watch to see if a trend develops, but obviously it's much weaker and a bit further west this run. This will definitely be a storm where the short term will decide where it goes in the long term. Where the storm begins to consolidate will be important.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#458 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Jul 26, 2020 5:40 pm

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:
Evan_Wilson wrote:If this system develops it appears it’s going to be an absolutely massive storm, correct me if I’m wrong.


You aren't wrong. It'll be a true sea monster.
Typhoon Tip is the baseline

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#459 Postby sma10 » Sun Jul 26, 2020 5:42 pm

gatorcane wrote:Global models are more than capable of handling fast moving and systems that don’t have an LLC or haven’t consolidated. That is definitely a misconception some have about the models. Here are the 18Z models from SFWMD:

https://i.postimg.cc/wTPfMNd2/storm-92.gif


This is correct, and is definitely a common misconception. Having said that, the models this year, for some reason, appear to be showing more uncertainty than usual. The failure to sniff out Hanna as a viable entity 72 hrs prior to landfalling as a hurricane is just a little concerning.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#460 Postby sma10 » Sun Jul 26, 2020 5:44 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:
Evan_Wilson wrote:If this system develops it appears it’s going to be an absolutely massive storm, correct me if I’m wrong.


You aren't wrong. It'll be a true sea monster.
Typhoon Tip is the baseline

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk


Someone with more skills than I should overlay Tip in the Gulf of Mexico to get an idea of how enormous he was
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