ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[St0rmTh0r]

I must say that is one of the largest Circulations I have ever seen lol

if it ever did become a hurricane .. you better bet it would create its own environemnt

https://i.ibb.co/bXRXCn5/26038474.gif

Good lord lmao, that thing is massive! It's like the Bowser of invests, huge and likely slow to gain momentum, but once it does it would be hard to stop, like a semi truck. Dang!

Pray that doesnt come to your city wow!

[GeneratorPower]

I’m sure everyone has heard that GOES-16 aka GOES-East is down. And specifically the imager that takes pics of the Tropical Atlantic in visible, IR, water vapor, etc. I hope they get it resolved soon because that would be a giant bummer in so many ways.

There are some suboptimal alternatives like METEOSAT but they don’t replace GOES-16. If this satellite stays out for the season we are going to have issues. 2020 strikes again.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/1287570504124112899

[tiger_deF]

If the GOES blackout happened with a major storm heading near a populated area I feel like emotions would be running higher than the mild annoyance present.

92L has all the ingredients it needs to organize, now the onus is on the disturbance

[GeneratorPower]

If the GOES blackout happened with a major storm heading near a populated area I feel like emotions would be running higher than the mild annoyance present.

92L has all the ingredients it needs to organize, now the onus is on the disturbance

I think any outage in hurricane season is bad news. At least with a major hurricane it would already be known pretty much where/when/how strong and we could track it with other sats and Hurricane Hunters. I think properly diagnosing 92L and getting the maximum possible advance notice of where this puppy is headed...well...that is going to be somewhat hampered by this outage. You’re right though. Either situation not good.

[TheStormExpert]

92L has a tough road ahead.

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1287565348359884805

[toad strangler]

92L has a tough road ahead.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1287565348359884805

huh, The National Hurricane Center says the opposite

[ColdMiser123]

There is some significant shear being forecast near the Bahamas as a result of an upper level low being present. A stronger system would theoretically be able to fend this off more compared to a weaker system, which is why intensity over the next several days will be important. Not to mention the medium range evolution itself is highly uncertain.

[IsabelaWeather]

GOES seems to be back up, 92L did some work while it was down though.

[USTropics]

92L has one of the largest vort signature's at the low-levels I've seen for an AEW in a while, hard to believe this is July:

[cycloneye]

GOES-16 is back and look what has changed with 92L.

[EquusStorm]

Glad that it seems to be back, what an awful time for an extended outage this woulda been

[tiger_deF]

GOES-16 is back and look what has changed with 92L.

https://i.imgur.com/xhh3Nhz.jpg

The fact that the convection surrounding of that area of relatively cold cloudtops has waned appreciably shows that the system is consolidating somewhat

[drezee]

GOES-16 is back and look what has changed with 92L.

https://i.imgur.com/xhh3Nhz.jpg

Need an ASCAT, but looks like consolidation near 11N

[gfsperpendicular]

Glad that it seems to be back, what an awful time for an extended outage this woulda been

It's kinda got me thinking about what would've happened in this interesting scenario. Isn't there an old GOES floating around up there somewhere? If not, between all the buoys, ascat and friends, and radars, it would probably be a much more accurate deal than the pre-satellite days.

That would be a lot of fun for the NHC forecasters, though.

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1287598033794936833

[blp]

GOES-16 is back and look what has changed with 92L.

https://i.imgur.com/xhh3Nhz.jpg

Yep, here the difference:

[tiger_deF]

According to the wind radius estimates the radius of maximum winds of the system is 150 NM. That's larger than the overall size of most hurricanes I can remember outside of Sandy, and even a moderate tropical storm at this massive size might produce appreciable surge

[GeneratorPower]

GOES-16 is back and look what has changed with 92L.

https://i.imgur.com/xhh3Nhz.jpg

Yep, here the difference:

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ecdc1ec7805dabeeb7f0c46d107d66df40e5fdcecf42a184174f51c9c6f53cc3.gif

Not only do we get a mystery outage but the storm radically changes its look in those few hours. This is a bad sign. 2020 strikes again.

[Hammy]

92L has a tough road ahead.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1287565348359884805

huh, The National Hurricane Center says the opposite

Lets wait until it's upgraded to make any claims about what they're saying about future intensity as the discussion focuses only on development chances--and it shouldn't be a very long wait given the satellite appearance.