2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#1921 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Jul 26, 2020 7:45 pm

When does SAL usually start to calm down? And when does shear in the Caribbean start to relax?
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#1922 Postby cainjamin » Sun Jul 26, 2020 7:54 pm

Cpv17 wrote:When does SAL usually start to calm down? And when does shear in the Caribbean start to relax?


Image

SAL usually starts to abate by early August and reaches a minimum in the Fall. Shear in the Caribbean is usually around the minimum in August and September.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#1923 Postby MarioProtVI » Sun Jul 26, 2020 8:18 pm

I think we can all agree CFS is a garbage model to hold onto for season predictions especially considering the Atlantic cranked out two systems in a SUPPRESSED phase of the MJO, one of which was almost a Cat 2 and the other a fairly strong MDR TS in July which you don’t see very often and usually indicates a good possibility of a hyperactive season. Let’s revisit this CFS thing on November 30 and see where we stand since 2020 clearly does not want to abide by the rules of climatology :lol:
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#1924 Postby hurricaneCW » Sun Jul 26, 2020 8:46 pm

CFS is garbage, expect a hyperactive season minus a possible lull sometime in August.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#1925 Postby Hammy » Sun Jul 26, 2020 9:38 pm

MarioProtVI wrote:I think we can all agree CFS is a garbage model to hold onto for season predictions especially considering the Atlantic cranked out two systems in a SUPPRESSED phase of the MJO, one of which was almost a Cat 2 and the other a fairly strong MDR TS in July which you don’t see very often and usually indicates a good possibility of a hyperactive season. Let’s revisit this CFS thing on November 30 and see where we stand since 2020 clearly does not want to abide by the rules of climatology :lol:


It's been accurate with trends but I'll agree that 2020 certainly isn't following the rules at all. :D

BYG Jacob wrote:Hugging the CFS is a weird hill to die on.


Once again, I post it here every few days during July/August as part of the discussion on the indicators. It's the same model that's used to predict precipitation and such on monthly basis.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#1926 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:14 pm

gatorcane wrote:Anybody have any thoughts how/if the much warmer than normal pocket of water in the northern Pacific might impact potentially any steering in the Atlantic? One thought I have is maybe it causes a more progressive pattern as lows that track over the area might get stronger than normal which might cause perturbations in the jet stream across North America and Atlantic especially in the fall as mid-latitude lows traverse the Pacific. This progressive pattern might in turn impact the strength and and location of the Bermuda high causing it to be a bit weaker and more transient than normal?

https://i.postimg.cc/9FC3BQYd/ssta-daily-current.png

I’ve noticed the pattern has become more progressive in recent weeks. Likely has to do with that warm blob.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#1927 Postby USTropics » Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:19 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Anybody have any thoughts how/if the much warmer than normal pocket of water in the northern Pacific might impact potentially any steering in the Atlantic? One thought I have is maybe it causes a more progressive pattern as lows that track over the area might get stronger than normal which might cause perturbations in the jet stream across North America and Atlantic especially in the fall as mid-latitude lows traverse the Pacific. This progressive pattern might in turn impact the strength and and location of the Bermuda high causing it to be a bit weaker and more transient than normal?

https://i.postimg.cc/9FC3BQYd/ssta-daily-current.png

I’ve noticed the pattern has become more progressive in recent weeks. Likely has to do with that warm blob.


There's still quite a bit of research into the warm "Blob" (or marine heatwave) that's situated off the coast of Alaska/Canada. It's more of a reflection of localized weather patterns, meaning the marine heatwave is a result of other atmospheric processes (i.e. a persistent ridge of high pressure relaxes winds and ocean surface mixing in that localized area, affecting the upper layers of the ocean). Looking further, a persistent band of high pressure extending to the Bering Sea/Alaska (as observed in 2014/2015) is a leading cause for the ridging and this persistent marine heatwave. Prolonged blocking events (which actually occur more frequently when the atmosphere is favoring La Nina in the North Pacific) and pattern shifts in the MJO are contributing factors as well.

TL;DR the prolonged marine heatwave likely has no effect (or research support) on steering patterns over North America/Atlantic basin, but is more of a reflection of larger atmospheric processes at play. Effects are contained locally (mainly marine life).

If you want to read more, check out this article - https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/seeing-red-across-north-pacific-ocean
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#1928 Postby BYG Jacob » Mon Jul 27, 2020 4:49 am

Hammy wrote:
MarioProtVI wrote:I think we can all agree CFS is a garbage model to hold onto for season predictions especially considering the Atlantic cranked out two systems in a SUPPRESSED phase of the MJO, one of which was almost a Cat 2 and the other a fairly strong MDR TS in July which you don’t see very often and usually indicates a good possibility of a hyperactive season. Let’s revisit this CFS thing on November 30 and see where we stand since 2020 clearly does not want to abide by the rules of climatology :lol:


It's been accurate with trends but I'll agree that 2020 certainly isn't following the rules at all. :D

BYG Jacob wrote:Hugging the CFS is a weird hill to die on.


Once again, I post it here every few days during July/August as part of the discussion on the indicators. It's the same model that's used to predict precipitation and such on monthly basis.

Predicting hurricane intensity and track is basically impossible 3 days out right now and you expect me to care about a models forecast for ASO?
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#1929 Postby tolakram » Mon Jul 27, 2020 6:30 am

To all who are criticizing the CFS post.

This IS the place to discuss what the longer range models are showing. You don't have to like it, but the proper response would be to discuss how the CFS has done in the past and not criticize a poster for discussing it. Telling us not to believe the long range models in a thread about discussing long range trends and models is a bit awkward, to say the least.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#1930 Postby NDG » Mon Jul 27, 2020 7:13 am

tolakram wrote:To all who are criticizing the CFS post.

This IS the place to discuss what the longer range models are showing. You don't have to like it, but the proper response would be to discuss how the CFS has done in the past and not criticize a poster for discussing it. Telling us not to believe the long range models in a thread about discussing long range trends and models is a bit awkward, to say the least.


I agree, if we are going to disagree with a forecast and or model lets show our evidence.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#1931 Postby SconnieCane » Mon Jul 27, 2020 7:52 am

Amazing the things you learn on this forum. Before I started frequenting this forum I didn't even realize SAL was a thing. I basically took water temps and (lack of) shear as the main ingredients for TC development/intensification, moisture content of air didn't really come into it except for landfalling Gulf Coast hurricanes pulling in dry continental air and desiccating themselves (Ivan, Dennis, Katrina, Rita NOT Harvey and Michael). I guess I just assumed that air over the middle of the ocean had to be moist, I certainly didn't realize air and dust from Africa could blow all the way across the Atlantic.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#1932 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:17 am

Looks like CFS is forecasting 3-4 storms developing in August with mostly recurve tracks. The path in week 1 should be 92L.

Storm Count Forecast

RAW NUMBERS

PERIOD START END ATL ENP WNP NI SI AUS SP
-----------------------------------------------------------
Week 1 20200726 20200801 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.2
Week 2 20200802 20200808 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1
Week 3 20200809 20200815 0.7 2.4 1.6 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.1
Week 4 20200816 20200822 1.8 3.1 2.5 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.1
Week 5 20200823 20200829 1.3 1.7 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Week 6 20200830 20200905 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
30 Day 20200726 20200824 3.4 4.3 3.5 1.4 0.5 0.0 0.3


BIAS CORRECTED

PERIOD START END ATL ENP WNP NI SI AUS SP
-----------------------------------------------------------
Week 1 20200726 20200801 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Week 2 20200802 20200808 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Week 3 20200809 20200815 0.1 2.0 0.8 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Week 4 20200816 20200822 1.2 2.3 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Week 5 20200823 20200829 0.9 1.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Week 6 20200830 20200905 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
30 Day 20200726 20200824 3.0 3.6 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


Image
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#1933 Postby St0rmTh0r » Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:47 am

supercane4867 wrote:Looks like CFS is forecasting 3-4 storms developing in August with mostly recurve tracks. The path in week 1 should be 92L.

Storm Count Forecast

RAW NUMBERS

PERIOD START END ATL ENP WNP NI SI AUS SP
-----------------------------------------------------------
Week 1 20200726 20200801 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.2
Week 2 20200802 20200808 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1
Week 3 20200809 20200815 0.7 2.4 1.6 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.1
Week 4 20200816 20200822 1.8 3.1 2.5 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.1
Week 5 20200823 20200829 1.3 1.7 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Week 6 20200830 20200905 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
30 Day 20200726 20200824 3.4 4.3 3.5 1.4 0.5 0.0 0.3


BIAS CORRECTED

PERIOD START END ATL ENP WNP NI SI AUS SP
-----------------------------------------------------------
Week 1 20200726 20200801 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Week 2 20200802 20200808 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Week 3 20200809 20200815 0.1 2.0 0.8 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Week 4 20200816 20200822 1.2 2.3 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Week 5 20200823 20200829 0.9 1.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Week 6 20200830 20200905 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
30 Day 20200726 20200824 3.0 3.6 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


https://i.imgur.com/Z0fxlo1.gif

So how many did it predict for July?
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#1934 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:55 am

St0rmTh0r wrote:So how many did it predict for July?

This is from a month ago on June 26. It predicted a mere 1 storm for the next 30 days.

Storm Count Forecast

RAW NUMBERS

PERIOD START END ATL ENP WNP NI SI AUS SP
-----------------------------------------------------------
Week 1 20200626 20200702 0.1 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Week 2 20200703 20200709 0.4 2.3 0.9 0.9 0.0 0.1 0.0
Week 3 20200710 20200716 0.9 2.5 0.6 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.1
Week 4 20200717 20200723 0.9 2.1 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.0 0.1
Week 5 20200724 20200730 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.0 0.1
Week 6 20200731 20200806 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
30 Day 20200626 20200725 1.4 4.5 1.8 1.7 0.8 0.1 0.1


BIAS CORRECTED

PERIOD START END ATL ENP WNP NI SI AUS SP
-----------------------------------------------------------
Week 1 20200626 20200702 0.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Week 2 20200703 20200709 0.0 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Week 3 20200710 20200716 0.3 1.4 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Week 4 20200717 20200723 0.4 1.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
Week 5 20200724 20200730 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
Week 6 20200731 20200806 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
30 Day 20200626 20200725 0.1 2.9 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#1935 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Jul 27, 2020 9:00 am

Also you can notice a high bias for EPAC on those NCEP models(which includes the CFS). They have modeled many phantom storms over there that didn't pan out.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#1936 Postby StruThiO » Mon Jul 27, 2020 9:13 am

Surface pressures have been extremely low in the MDR lately:

Image

Image

Image

note the monsoon trof extending along 13N in July
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#1937 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jul 27, 2020 9:42 am

USTropics wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Anybody have any thoughts how/if the much warmer than normal pocket of water in the northern Pacific might impact potentially any steering in the Atlantic? One thought I have is maybe it causes a more progressive pattern as lows that track over the area might get stronger than normal which might cause perturbations in the jet stream across North America and Atlantic especially in the fall as mid-latitude lows traverse the Pacific. This progressive pattern might in turn impact the strength and and location of the Bermuda high causing it to be a bit weaker and more transient than normal?

https://i.postimg.cc/9FC3BQYd/ssta-daily-current.png

I’ve noticed the pattern has become more progressive in recent weeks. Likely has to do with that warm blob.


There's still quite a bit of research into the warm "Blob" (or marine heatwave) that's situated off the coast of Alaska/Canada. It's more of a reflection of localized weather patterns, meaning the marine heatwave is a result of other atmospheric processes (i.e. a persistent ridge of high pressure relaxes winds and ocean surface mixing in that localized area, affecting the upper layers of the ocean). Looking further, a persistent band of high pressure extending to the Bering Sea/Alaska (as observed in 2014/2015) is a leading cause for the ridging and this persistent marine heatwave. Prolonged blocking events (which actually occur more frequently when the atmosphere is favoring La Nina in the North Pacific) and pattern shifts in the MJO are contributing factors as well.

TL;DR the prolonged marine heatwave likely has no effect (or research support) on steering patterns over North America/Atlantic basin, but is more of a reflection of larger atmospheric processes at play. Effects are contained locally (mainly marine life).

If you want to read more, check out this article - https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/seeing-red-across-north-pacific-ocean


Thanks this looks like a good read!
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#1938 Postby St0rmTh0r » Mon Jul 27, 2020 10:49 am

St0rmTh0r wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:Looks like CFS is forecasting 3-4 storms developing in August with mostly recurve tracks. The path in week 1 should be 92L.

Storm Count Forecast

RAW NUMBERS

PERIOD START END ATL ENP WNP NI SI AUS SP
-----------------------------------------------------------
Week 1 20200726 20200801 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.2
Week 2 20200802 20200808 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1
Week 3 20200809 20200815 0.7 2.4 1.6 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.1
Week 4 20200816 20200822 1.8 3.1 2.5 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.1
Week 5 20200823 20200829 1.3 1.7 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Week 6 20200830 20200905 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
30 Day 20200726 20200824 3.4 4.3 3.5 1.4 0.5 0.0 0.3


BIAS CORRECTED

PERIOD START END ATL ENP WNP NI SI AUS SP
-----------------------------------------------------------
Week 1 20200726 20200801 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Week 2 20200802 20200808 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Week 3 20200809 20200815 0.1 2.0 0.8 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Week 4 20200816 20200822 1.2 2.3 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Week 5 20200823 20200829 0.9 1.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Week 6 20200830 20200905 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
30 Day 20200726 20200824 3.0 3.6 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


https://i.imgur.com/Z0fxlo1.gif

So how many did it predict for July?

Epic fail is an understatement.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#1939 Postby St0rmTh0r » Mon Jul 27, 2020 10:55 am

StruThiO wrote:Surface pressures have been extremely low in the MDR lately:

https://i.imgur.com/DE7ZsXV.png

https://i.imgur.com/zePCMR2.png

https://i.imgur.com/vVPdlxv.png

note the monsoon trof extending along 13N in July

Well no wonder there has been early CV activity. This is a very bad sign for the peak of hurricane season. I see another strong wave behind 92L so this is getting serious. I think August and September is gonna break records. I've never seen signs this strong for hyperactivity in a season. 5 storms in July I made a prediction of 10 storms forming in the August poll. I'm sticking to that. September could see even more activity
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#1940 Postby St0rmTh0r » Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:04 am

NDG wrote:
tolakram wrote:To all who are criticizing the CFS post.

This IS the place to discuss what the longer range models are showing. You don't have to like it, but the proper response would be to discuss how the CFS has done in the past and not criticize a poster for discussing it. Telling us not to believe the long range models in a thread about discussing long range trends and models is a bit awkward, to say the least.


I agree, if we are going to disagree with a forecast and or model lets show our evidence.

Well the fact that 4 going on 5 storms have formed this month when the CFS predicted 1 is all the evidence we need.
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