ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CM2]

I must say, if this thing ever reaches its full potential and gets some of the good venting that Hanna got with more time over water, it's going to be a monster.

Yeah and what would be even more dangerous is if the high pressure ridge actually holds and it keeps together somewhat and managed to get into the gulf as a cat1/TS. Though looking at the HWRF, you can REALLY see the dry air is gonna get sucked right up into the storm.

Even more so it looks as if the gulf has quite a bit of dry air in it too which would hurt it even more. It seems the best place for rapid intensification would be right in that little area between Jacksonville and the Outer Banks. Water is real hot there and the air is kind of moist. If it ever reaches full potential, it wouldn't be in the gulf, it would be off the coast of SC. Even the GFS-Para has this storm rapidly intensifying from TS to Cat 2-3 in the span of 48 hours.

After writing this the GFS-Para just got it's 00z run in and it just pulled a real interesting solution. Now we have the potential of it coming in with more time spent over the open atlantic and a slow approach to land. I know this probabaly is getting close to belonging to the 92L model thread but I am mainly just using the models to illustrate my points.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

A TCFA issued for 92L.

[GCANE]

An interesting feature that GFS is showing is the development of a surface low over SC at 168 hrs.
Could cause it to make a left turn / wobble.
If this happens and the interaction effect, depends on many variables, foremost of which is how 92L's track evolves.
Just noting this now as something to consider and watch for down the road.

[arkestra]

That’s already a long thread for... an invest.


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[toad strangler]

92L has a tough road ahead.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1287565348359884805

huh, The National Hurricane Center says the opposite

Lets wait until it's upgraded to make any claims about what they're saying about future intensity as the discussion focuses only on development chances--and it shouldn't be a very long wait given the satellite appearance.

I never made a claim about intensity. Please don’t put words in my mouth. My comment and context were in regards to development per NHC words. As you even follow up with in the very next sentence.

[Hammy]

I must say, if this thing ever reaches its full potential and gets some of the good venting that Hanna got with more time over water, it's going to be a monster.

Yeah and what would be even more dangerous is if the high pressure ridge actually holds and it keeps together somewhat and managed to get into the gulf as a cat1/TS. Though looking at the HWRF, you can REALLY see the dry air is gonna get sucked right up into the storm.
https://imgur.com/CxAfYlQ
Even more so it looks as if the gulf has quite a bit of dry air in it too which would hurt it even more. It seems the best place for rapid intensification would be right in that little area between Jacksonville and the Outer Banks. Water is real hot there and the air is kind of moist. If it ever reaches full potential, it wouldn't be in the gulf, it would be off the coast of SC. Even the GFS-Para has this storm rapidly intensifying from TS to Cat 2-3 in the span of 48 hours.
https://imgur.com/JP0qnXU

After writing this the GFS-Para just got it's 00z run in and it just pulled a real interesting solution. Now we have the potential of it coming in with more time spent over the open atlantic and a slow approach to land. I know this probabaly is getting close to belonging to the 92L model thread but I am mainly just using the models to illustrate my points.

I swear for a second I thought somebody accidentally linked one of the Florence forecasts from 2018. Seems like there's a split between weak and strong (with not a whole lot between) and none of the latter are ending well for the coast.

[GCANE]

Large high-TPW air infeed all the way from the Amazon River.

[CM2]

I swear for a second I thought somebody accidentally linked one of the Florence forecasts from 2018. Seems like there's a split between weak and strong (with not a whole lot between) and none of the latter are ending well for the coast.

If the ridge is strong and the storm goes through the Caribbean or skims just North through the gulf, the storm does not have a good chance to survive. There is so much dry air in the area and any storm that wanders in there will not have a good time. Think of what happened to Gonzalo. A weaker ridge is going to put the storm away from the Caribbean and into more favorable waters for development off the coast of the Carolinas, northeastern Florida. If the storm is going to develop, the only real place it can go is there.

[GCANE]

GFS is forecasting this to be under an Anticyclonic Rossby Wave Break once it gets north of Hispaniola.
If this holds, intensity could be more than currently anticipated.

[GCANE]

Last ASCAT pass

[HurricaneEnzo]

Idk just me personally but I don't see anything forming from this. It is just massive and devoid of convection. Its got some serious work to do.

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[ouragans]

Finally...

Location: 12.0°N 42.2°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 180 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 150 NM

[Aric Dunn]

You can pretty much toss the all previous runs of the GFS and Euro out the door..

This mornings Visible does appear that something is trying to consolidate well to the south around 10 to 11 North.. GFS is like 15 N Euro is also 12 to 15 N for initialization of vorticity.

and it is also farther west

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/1287672859385638912

[ouragans]

You can pretty much toss the all previous runs of the GFS and Euro out the door..

This mornings Visible does appear that something is trying to consolidate well to the south around 10 to 11 North.. GFS is like 15 N Euro is also 12 to 15 N for initialization of vorticity.

and it is also farther west

6z best track is still with the circ by 12N while there is something by 10.8N. That would mean all models with the northern circ are actually wrong. They all show a system passing just north of the islands. Euro ensemble shows a direct hit between Martinique and Antigua, since at least 4 days

[SFLcane]

Less organized... just maybe euro is up to something.


1. Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located a little more than 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands has become a little less organized since last night. However, environmental conditions are still expected to become more favorable for development in a day or two and a tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form within the next couple of days. The
system is forecast to move westward to west northwestward at 15 to 20 mph and could begin to affect portions of the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday or Wednesday night. Interests on those islands should
continue to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[SFLcane]

They aren’t even running models right now I don’t see the 06z guidance being sent out.

[Aric Dunn]

Less organized... just maybe euro is up to something.


1. Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located a little more than 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands has become a little less organized since last night. However, environmental conditions are still expected to become more favorable for development in a day or two and a tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form within the next couple of days. The
system is forecast to move westward to west northwestward at 15 to 20 mph and could begin to affect portions of the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday or Wednesday night. Interests on those islands should
continue to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Though some of the convection that started to develop last night has weakened..

I disagree it has become less organized..

for the first time we have a fairly well defined circ developing between the two blobs. Let see if convection start to fire with it.

Morning visible making it quite clear.

[SouthDadeFish]

This invest looks far from impressive at this moment. Almost like a big cyclonic gyre out in the middle of the Atlantic surrounded by SAL to the north. If it wasn't for a weak Kelvin wave passing by right now, I would put the genesis chances much lower than the NHC has them right now. Anyway, I am leaning toward the Euro solution at this point in time. If 92L is to undergo genesis within the next two days, it desperately needs some sustained convection to create a local vorticity maximum. Too broad for now.

[Aric Dunn]

This invest looks far from impressive at this moment. Almost like a big cyclonic gyre out in the middle of the Atlantic surrounded by SAL to the north. If it wasn't for a weak Kelvin wave passing by right now, I would put the genesis chances much lower than the NHC has them right now. Anyway, I am leaning toward the Euro solution at this point in time. If 92L is to undergo genesis within the next two days, it desperately needs some sustained convection to create a local vorticity maximum. Too broad for now.

how about a centralized vort max ?