ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[jlauderdal]

Just for laughs and giggles, the 12z Navgem has a hurricane making landfall in South Florida

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200727/5cbe3b741f675ba18a89f0a16297450d.jpg


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South Florida would be uninhabitable if 20% of these models verified.

[DestinHurricane]

Just for laughs and giggles, the 12z Navgem has a hurricane making landfall in South Florida

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200727/5cbe3b741f675ba18a89f0a16297450d.jpg


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lol not happening

[FixySLN]

Just for laughs and giggles, the 12z Navgem has a hurricane making landfall in South Florida

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200727/5cbe3b741f675ba18a89f0a16297450d.jpg


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lol not happening

You sure? There's a bunch of people that would be happy to know the future track if you've got that hiding somewhere.

[hurrtracker79]

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/1287840025179303942

[Kingarabian]

If I'm not mistaken the Navy model might'dve pretty well with Hurricane Douglas's track. Could be an anomaly of course.

[NDG]

All I know is that the EPS shows a strong narrow ridge to the north of 92L as it tracks through the Antilles to later grow stronger over Bermuda as the trough lifts to the north. Unfortunately this means a threat to the US of whatever becomes of 92L.

[plasticup]

Just for laughs and giggles, the 12z Navgem has a hurricane making landfall in South Florida

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200727/5cbe3b741f675ba18a89f0a16297450d.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

South Florida would be uninhabitable if 20% of these models verified.

It will take more than a Cat 2 to destroy Miami

[Blown Away]

Just for laughs and giggles, the 12z Navgem has a hurricane making landfall in South Florida

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200727/5cbe3b741f675ba18a89f0a16297450d.jpg

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

South Florida would be uninhabitable if 20% of these models verified.

It will take more than a Cat 2 to destroy Miami

I think Mr. JLauderdale meant is so many times SFL is leveled by Hurricane model runs and if only 20% those really happened then SFL would be leveled...

[northjaxpro]

All I know is that the EPS shows a strong narrow ridge to the north of 92L as it tracks through the Antilles to later grow stronger over Bermuda as the trough lifts to the north. Unfortunately this means a threat to the US of whatever becomes of 92L.

https://i.imgur.com/81txuCY.gif

+ NAO

[WeatherEmperor]

All I know is that the EPS shows a strong narrow ridge to the north of 92L as it tracks through the Antilles to later grow stronger over Bermuda as the trough lifts to the north. Unfortunately this means a threat to the US of whatever becomes of 92L.

https://i.imgur.com/81txuCY.gif

+ NAO

Correct. Look how the NAO shoots up into positive territory the first few daya of August




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[Jr0d]

The invest is moving faster and has NOT moved WNW as many of the models have shown so far. This means guidence will shift further south and west. Way too early to say that South Florida is safe.

We still need a classified system with that input going into several model runs before there is any confidence in the global models. Right now everything is guess work.

Staying weak and moving faster biases the track further south and west....definately something to watch for those of us in South Florida.

[abk_0710]

The invest is moving faster and has NOT moved WNW as many of the models have shown so far. This means guidence will shift further south and west. Way too early to say that South Florida is safe.

We still need a classified system with that input going into several model runs before there is any confidence in the global models. Right now everything is guess work.

Staying weak and moving faster biases the track further south and west....definately something to watch for those of us in South Florida.

I feel like this includes the Gulf too.

[northjaxpro]

This is why EURO and its ensembles are the best imo to use as a guide with 92L It is showing the ridging in place in the medium term. Positive NAO has been forecasted since late last week to materialize by the beginning of August. 9l2L will likely track a bit farther south and I think it may end up in the GOM by early next week.

[SFLcane]

EPS looking pretty ominous for FL if something were to indeed develop.

[Jr0d]

I feel like this includes the Gulf too.

Most definately.

I do not have much confidence in the global models with this storm right now. After being classified and several models runs with that information, hopefully they will offer a reasonable solution. Tough to put much faith in the models when yesterday's forecast showed the system further north and east that where it is now.

If they cant get 24 hrs close, how can one expect their 7 day forecast to be reasonable?

[St0rmTh0r]

South Florida would be uninhabitable if 20% of these models verified.

It will take more than a Cat 2 to destroy Miami

I think Mr. JLauderdale meant is so many times SFL is leveled by Hurricane model runs and if only 20% those really happened then SFL would be leveled...

I think what he means is there would be an epic storm surge from this behemoth storm that would leave south Florida uninhabitable!

[CM2]

I'm having serious doubts that this thing even develops. The trend with most of the models is for a weaker and weaker storm to enter the Northern Antilles area which is gonna induce it with dry air and make it even harder to form. This is Gonzalo all over again!

[CM2]

Though the GFS has been trash, what is interesting note is that for the first time in 10 runs, the trend is now back to a stronger storm than the previous run which hasn't happen in 10 runs. One thing to appreciate from models, even as trash as the GFS, is the trend they put together. Individual model runs are always garbage but the trend is always very telling.

The GFS 18z is still running so this is just the first thing I noticed in its early stages,

[St0rmTh0r]

Though the GFS has been trash, what is interesting note is that for the first time in 10 runs, the trend is now back to a stronger storm than the previous run which hasn't happen in 10 runs. One thing to appreciate from models, even as trash as the GFS, is the trend they put together. Individual model runs are always garbage but the trend is always very telling.
https://imgur.com/PLPUOQu
The GFS 18z is still running so this is just the first thing I noticed in its early stages,

Was it the GFS that showed this storm weeks ago? I remember some model run showing a massive wave like this.

[Hammy]

Though the GFS has been trash, what is interesting note is that for the first time in 10 runs, the trend is now back to a stronger storm than the previous run which hasn't happen in 10 runs. One thing to appreciate from models, even as trash as the GFS, is the trend they put together. Individual model runs are always garbage but the trend is always very telling.
https://imgur.com/PLPUOQu
The GFS 18z is still running so this is just the first thing I noticed in its early stages,

Was it the GFS that showed this storm weeks ago? I remember some model run showing a massive wave like this.

GEM (CMC) followed by the Euro--the GFS was being laughed at for not showing anything, not even the massive tropical low that's presently there.