ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

I will say that if 92l takes a track north of the islands and makes it into the vicinity of the Bahamas or around there without getting too disrupted by land, we could see some significant development. I am seeing some favorable conditions there possibly, a bit early to say for sure.

[Aric Dunn]

LLC visible it looks like.

https://i.imgur.com/bFI3ffB.jpg

Yep that is the one we were tracking earlier on visible. It swung north now turning west .. meaning its is rotating around a larger circ to the south ... likley in that convection.

[SFLcane]

I will say that if 92l takes a track north of the islands and makes it into the vicinity of the Bahamas or around there without getting too disrupted by land, we could see some significant development. I am seeing some favorable conditions there possibly, a bit early to say for sure.

Hi Gatorcane, sure? No chance per HWRF paints an ugly picture. Sheared dry blob

[Weatherboy1]

Much deeper convection firing now to the W and SW of the overall circulation. As I posted earlier, expect this to be designated by tomorrow morning or maybe midday

[HurricaneFrances04]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1287922788427272198

[Evil Jeremy]

A big swing toward the west in vorticity this evening.

5pm: https://i.ibb.co/D490YJV/5pm.gif

8pm: https://i.ibb.co/LkZkYjV/8pm.gif


Once this consolidates around the western convective mass, I think this will ramp up quickly. You can break out your shear and SAL charts, but this has sustained it's own moisture plume since Africa. It's vigorous.

[Aric Dunn]

new ASCAT. a little elongated still but much more defined than this mornings ASCAT

the SW Lobe does appears to be consolidating under the convection.

[chaser1]

I believe we'll be looking at a T.S. approaching the ROCK late Thursday

[gatorcane]

I will say that if 92l takes a track north of the islands and makes it into the vicinity of the Bahamas or around there without getting too disrupted by land, we could see some significant development. I am seeing some favorable conditions there possibly, a bit early to say for sure.

Hi Gatorcane, sure? No chance per HWRF paints an ugly picture. Sheared dry blob

https://iili.io/dusJ0N.png

If 92l can build a solid core and is a storm heading into that area, it could probably fend off the SAL given the system’s large size with ideal upper-level winds and high SSTs. See GFS parallel as an example. That model does look a bit too bullish in the short to medium term though.

[STRiZZY]

I will say that if 92l takes a track north of the islands and makes it into the vicinity of the Bahamas or around there without getting too disrupted by land, we could see some significant development. I am seeing some favorable conditions there possibly, a bit early to say for sure.

Hi Gatorcane, sure? No chance per HWRF paints an ugly picture. Sheared dry blob

https://iili.io/dusJ0N.png

The euro is showing a lot of dry air from the SAL getting sucked in the high pressure lobe to the north of 92l.

It then carries it across the Atlantic with it towards the Bahamas and east coast.

I think 92l's best chance for significant development is if the southern lobe consolidates and tracks south into the Caribbean where it's more moist and more favorable wind shear according to the euro.

[Aric Dunn]

I will say that if 92l takes a track north of the islands and makes it into the vicinity of the Bahamas or around there without getting too disrupted by land, we could see some significant development. I am seeing some favorable conditions there possibly, a bit early to say for sure.

Hi Gatorcane, sure? No chance per HWRF paints an ugly picture. Sheared dry blob

https://iili.io/dusJ0N.png

The euro is showing a lot of dry air from the SAL getting sucked in the high pressure lobe to the north of 92l.

It then carries it across the Atlantic with it towards the Bahamas and east coast.

I think 92l's best chance for significant development is if the southern lobe consolidates and tracks south into the Caribbean where it's more moist and more favorable wind shear according to the euro.

Which is weird.. becasue it pretty much ATE the entire SAL plume today lol

Cut the plume in half..

Models are likely way off on the dry air issue.. especially given its current state of not having moisture issues.

[tiger_deF]

Can anyone think of another invest that looked even remotely like this one in this location? Not only is it absolutely massive, but it has a vigor that I've never seen, and has been tapping into moisture streams all the way from the equator. With the current climatology and amount of dry air that was around this system, I think that any smaller wave would have been completely consumed.

[sma10]

I will say that if 92l takes a track north of the islands and makes it into the vicinity of the Bahamas or around there without getting too disrupted by land, we could see some significant development. I am seeing some favorable conditions there possibly, a bit early to say for sure.

Hi Gatorcane, sure? No chance per HWRF paints an ugly picture. Sheared dry blob

https://iili.io/dusJ0N.png

The euro is showing a lot of dry air from the SAL getting sucked in the high pressure lobe to the north of 92l.

It then carries it across the Atlantic with it towards the Bahamas and east coast.

I think 92l's best chance for significant development is if the southern lobe consolidates and tracks south into the Caribbean where it's more moist and more favorable wind shear according to the euro.

This would be a very interesting solution, one not yet shown by any model. I imagine given the complexity, that it's possible for all models to bust. The question would be, what track would it most likely take? Towards Yucatan I guess?

[SouthFloridawx]

It's a large system. It'll take a little time to get going.

Sent from my SM-G981U using Tapatalk

[STRiZZY]

Hi Gatorcane, sure? No chance per HWRF paints an ugly picture. Sheared dry blob

https://iili.io/dusJ0N.png

The euro is showing a lot of dry air from the SAL getting sucked in the high pressure lobe to the north of 92l.

It then carries it across the Atlantic with it towards the Bahamas and east coast.

I think 92l's best chance for significant development is if the southern lobe consolidates and tracks south into the Caribbean where it's more moist and more favorable wind shear according to the euro.

Which is weird.. becasue it pretty much ATE the entire SAL plume today lol

Cut the plume in half..

Models are likely way off on the dry air issue.. especially given its current state of not having moisture issues.

Pretty dry to the north of 92l. That's probably why the convection to the south is more robust.

[STRiZZY]

Hi Gatorcane, sure? No chance per HWRF paints an ugly picture. Sheared dry blob

https://iili.io/dusJ0N.png

The euro is showing a lot of dry air from the SAL getting sucked in the high pressure lobe to the north of 92l.

It then carries it across the Atlantic with it towards the Bahamas and east coast.

I think 92l's best chance for significant development is if the southern lobe consolidates and tracks south into the Caribbean where it's more moist and more favorable wind shear according to the euro.

This would be a very interesting solution, one not yet shown by any model. I imagine given the complexity, that it's possible for all models to bust. The question would be, what track would it most likely take? Towards Yucatan I guess?

I would assume it would track pretty similar to the 0z from the 24th (which is where this idea came from) which was into the Yucatan Channel. From there I'm not sure.

There looks to be two lobes of high pressure to the north of it at that time and I would figure it squeeze between them perhaps towards the northern Gulf coast.

[Aric Dunn]

The euro is showing a lot of dry air from the SAL getting sucked in the high pressure lobe to the north of 92l.

It then carries it across the Atlantic with it towards the Bahamas and east coast.

I think 92l's best chance for significant development is if the southern lobe consolidates and tracks south into the Caribbean where it's more moist and more favorable wind shear according to the euro.

Which is weird.. becasue it pretty much ATE the entire SAL plume today lol

Cut the plume in half..

Models are likely way off on the dry air issue.. especially given its current state of not having moisture issues.

Pretty dry to the north of 92l. That's probably why the convection to the south is more robust.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/g16split/g16split.jpg

It has a massive moisture feed and very large buffer zone from what is left of the SAL ( these images are pretty bad sometimes). COnvection building well up the east side and to the north side as the moisture flux pushes north.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The way this is barreling west...I dont see it gaining much latitude, The 18z GFS starts to develop the southern lobe and at 36 hours just kills it and develops the northern lobe which makes zero sense.

[CourierPR]

Can anyone think of another invest that looked even remotely like this one in this location? Not only is it absolutely massive, but it has a vigor that I've never seen, and has been tapping into moisture streams all the way from the equator. With the current climatology and amount of dry air that was around this system, I think that any smaller wave would have been completely consumed.

Climatology is the scientific study of climate (= general or long-term weather conditions) The last part of the definition is key--General or long-term weather conditions. Climatology is not a force unto itself and using the phrase "current climatology" is a misnomer.

[eastcoastFL]

Cold tops firing off right now. 92L seems to be making a move tonight.