ATL: ISAIAS - Models
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
HWFR deepening to 964 mb heading straight for South Florida after clobbering Nassau with the northern eyewall
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
caneseddy wrote:HWFR deepening to 964 mb heading straight for the coast after clobbering Nassau with the northern eyewall
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
I think I found the actual trend earlier in the formation with the HMON. You see a complete change in the moisture composition of the storm and the 00z just adds on to the similar moisture composition. too bad we don't get an HMON-p for greater enviromental view.
0 likes
Large Signatures are for losers.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4806
- Age: 41
- Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
- Location: South Florida
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Here is how the HWRF run ends...hitting the NW Bahamas hard and dangerously close to the Florida east coast

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Alright, the Euro is coming out and it's so far is going in the shoes of the HWRF and the HMON and going crazy with this storm from the beat.
0 likes
Large Signatures are for losers.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
With the exception of the GFS, all other models on this run show a hurricane in the Bahamas. Let’s see what Euro does
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
CM2 wrote:Alright, the Euro is coming out and it's so far is going in the shoes of the HWRF and the HMON and going crazy with this storm from the beat.
https://imgur.com/XA3Kv9n
Only about a 4kt difference so far from the 12z tbh.
0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4806
- Age: 41
- Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
- Location: South Florida
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Looks like the Euro has the core on the North side of Hispanola this time

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
STRiZZY wrote:CM2 wrote:Alright, the Euro is coming out and it's so far is going in the shoes of the HWRF and the HMON and going crazy with this storm from the beat.
https://imgur.com/XA3Kv9n
Only about a 4kt difference so far from the 12z tbh.
True but the trend on these runs are showing that unlike the GFS all other models are starting to sniff out favorable conditions north of the islands. Will it happen. No one knows
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
caneseddy wrote:With the exception of the GFS, all other models on this run show a hurricane in the Bahamas. Let’s see what Euro does
I do not know if anybody has said this yet but All the models that showed this rapid change also showed it moving MUCH faster. It shows 92L being a few hundred miles infront of where the previous model had it. Maybe it's suggesting a faster storm will get it through the dryer area quicker and thus now impead on it as much? It should be something to talk about.
1 likes
Large Signatures are for losers.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4806
- Age: 41
- Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
- Location: South Florida
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Euro 96hrs at the north coast of Cuba as a TS maybe??

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Looking at the GEM, I also noticed it was in the Bahamas but it has been there for quite a while. Granted the 00z saw it a bit more intense than the previous runs (granted a little but the trend is what's important here)
Also the Navgem has been quite constant on this front and I remember somebody saying they're sticking with the Navgem and somebody called them silly, well who's laughing now? (though the 00z of the Navgem also has it moving much faster.)
Also the Navgem has been quite constant on this front and I remember somebody saying they're sticking with the Navgem and somebody called them silly, well who's laughing now? (though the 00z of the Navgem also has it moving much faster.)
0 likes
Large Signatures are for losers.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4806
- Age: 41
- Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
- Location: South Florida
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Into South Florida as a TS at 120hrs

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
2 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
WeatherEmperor wrote:Euro 96hrs at the north coast of Cuba as a TS maybe??
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200728/04f78c9fe63aa80ba332c9f90d49a3a1.jpg
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
at 90hr the 10m wind map is showing 56.6mph. The next few frames it interacts with Cuba and weakens a bit back down to 42mph. Again this is at 10m.
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
WeatherEmperor wrote:Into South Florida as a TS at 120hrs
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200728/308b1bacaca0a1dd1ea362e49a45e618.jpg
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Yeah I saw this, Is a gulf storm back on the table 120 hours from now! JESUS tonight has been quite eventful! I would really like to hear from the NHS on how the models changed to radically overnight. It was like 4 days ago we disreguarded it as a gulf storm and just thought it would simply go out to sea or fizzle before that, now we're talking about a gulf storm again. Wow I don't remember dealing with a storm like this in my life time. Honestly It could hit Houston at this point. All the models are bananas atm. BANANAS!
1 likes
Large Signatures are for losers.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
WeatherEmperor wrote:Into South Florida as a TS at 120hrs
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200728/308b1bacaca0a1dd1ea362e49a45e618.jpg
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
It would be really moving fast to be there by Sunday.
1 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
WeatherEmperor wrote:Into South Florida as a TS at 120hrs
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200728/308b1bacaca0a1dd1ea362e49a45e618.jpg
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Well that’s a shift for the Euro from past runs. For me track is more important than intensity. It’s probably a good bet that if the Euro hadn’t gone into Hispaniola but gone north of it it would be more strong than depicted
That’s the trend on these runs. Stronger storm in the Bahamas than previous runs, except for GFS
Not an official forecast
0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4806
- Age: 41
- Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
- Location: South Florida
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
FWIW, the Navgem is very close to the HWRF in terms of intensity and track. Very close to the FL east coast

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests