ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[caneseddy]

HWFR deepening to 964 mb heading straight for South Florida after clobbering Nassau with the northern eyewall

[caneseddy]

HWFR deepening to 964 mb heading straight for the coast after clobbering Nassau with the northern eyewall

[CM2]

I think I found the actual trend earlier in the formation with the HMON. You see a complete change in the moisture composition of the storm and the 00z just adds on to the similar moisture composition. too bad we don't get an HMON-p for greater enviromental view.

[STRiZZY]

Euro slightly north 36hrs out.

[WeatherEmperor]

Here is how the HWRF run ends...hitting the NW Bahamas hard and dangerously close to the Florida east coast




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[CM2]

Alright, the Euro is coming out and it's so far is going in the shoes of the HWRF and the HMON and going crazy with this storm from the beat.

[caneseddy]

With the exception of the GFS, all other models on this run show a hurricane in the Bahamas. Let’s see what Euro does

[STRiZZY]

Alright, the Euro is coming out and it's so far is going in the shoes of the HWRF and the HMON and going crazy with this storm from the beat.
https://imgur.com/XA3Kv9n

Only about a 4kt difference so far from the 12z tbh.

[STRiZZY]

Euro slamming into Hispaniola again.

[WeatherEmperor]

Looks like the Euro has the core on the North side of Hispanola this time




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[caneseddy]

Alright, the Euro is coming out and it's so far is going in the shoes of the HWRF and the HMON and going crazy with this storm from the beat.
https://imgur.com/XA3Kv9n

Only about a 4kt difference so far from the 12z tbh.

True but the trend on these runs are showing that unlike the GFS all other models are starting to sniff out favorable conditions north of the islands. Will it happen. No one knows

[CM2]

With the exception of the GFS, all other models on this run show a hurricane in the Bahamas. Let’s see what Euro does

I do not know if anybody has said this yet but All the models that showed this rapid change also showed it moving MUCH faster. It shows 92L being a few hundred miles infront of where the previous model had it. Maybe it's suggesting a faster storm will get it through the dryer area quicker and thus now impead on it as much? It should be something to talk about.

[WeatherEmperor]

Euro 96hrs at the north coast of Cuba as a TS maybe??




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[CM2]

Looking at the GEM, I also noticed it was in the Bahamas but it has been there for quite a while. Granted the 00z saw it a bit more intense than the previous runs (granted a little but the trend is what's important here)

Also the Navgem has been quite constant on this front and I remember somebody saying they're sticking with the Navgem and somebody called them silly, well who's laughing now? (though the 00z of the Navgem also has it moving much faster.)

[WeatherEmperor]

Into South Florida as a TS at 120hrs




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[STRiZZY]

Euro 96hrs at the north coast of Cuba as a TS maybe??

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200728/04f78c9fe63aa80ba332c9f90d49a3a1.jpg


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at 90hr the 10m wind map is showing 56.6mph. The next few frames it interacts with Cuba and weakens a bit back down to 42mph. Again this is at 10m.

[CM2]

Into South Florida as a TS at 120hrs

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200728/308b1bacaca0a1dd1ea362e49a45e618.jpg


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Yeah I saw this, Is a gulf storm back on the table 120 hours from now! JESUS tonight has been quite eventful! I would really like to hear from the NHS on how the models changed to radically overnight. It was like 4 days ago we disreguarded it as a gulf storm and just thought it would simply go out to sea or fizzle before that, now we're talking about a gulf storm again. Wow I don't remember dealing with a storm like this in my life time. Honestly It could hit Houston at this point. All the models are bananas atm. BANANAS!

[SoupBone]

Into South Florida as a TS at 120hrs

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200728/308b1bacaca0a1dd1ea362e49a45e618.jpg


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It would be really moving fast to be there by Sunday.

[caneseddy]

Into South Florida as a TS at 120hrs

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200728/308b1bacaca0a1dd1ea362e49a45e618.jpg


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Well that’s a shift for the Euro from past runs. For me track is more important than intensity. It’s probably a good bet that if the Euro hadn’t gone into Hispaniola but gone north of it it would be more strong than depicted

That’s the trend on these runs. Stronger storm in the Bahamas than previous runs, except for GFS

Not an official forecast

[WeatherEmperor]

FWIW, the Navgem is very close to the HWRF in terms of intensity and track. Very close to the FL east coast




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