ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tiger_deF]

Most models have shifted west and with only a tropical storm which is good news for us.
Now we are at 100% capacity, nothing available. National news is telling people it is a safe beach.
And the tourist came.
As long as the hype for the storm is aimed at someone else we will thrive.


Hoping it stays that way, to try to evac the OBX at full capacity would be a nightmare.

Remember not to pay attention to strength forecasts, as they will more than likely be wrong. I think the strength forecasts will definitely go up slowly.

I absolutely agree, and I think the current intensity guidance is also factoring in the fact that the disturbance might not form into anything at all or get shredded up by land interaction with the larger islands of the Antilles. If 92L does form into a definitive tropical storm than I think the guidance will go up reflecting that.

[aspen]

Most models have shifted west and with only a tropical storm which is good news for us.
Now we are at 100% capacity, nothing available. National news is telling people it is a safe beach.
And the tourist came.
As long as the hype for the storm is aimed at someone else we will thrive.
Hoping it stays that way, to try to evac the OBX at full capacity would be a nightmare.

I’m getting Irene vibes off this but too early to tell for now.

I was getting Irene vibes until the last 12-24 hours, with most of the globals becoming tame with intensity and trending towards a storm that recurves far later. Doesn’t seem like PTC-9 will be an East Coast Sweep like Irene or Gloria. I’m thinking there’s a better chance of this making it into the far eastern Gulf like Irma.

[RT23]

Recon finding no signs of rotation with the northeast lobe, which shows that the southwest lobe has conclusively become the dominant piece of this disturbance, and any spin there has become washed out with the wind flow. They are turning away from the northeast lobe.

Would love them to investigate that area of vort east of Barbados

[caribsue]

Recon finding no signs of rotation with the northeast lobe, which shows that the southwest lobe has conclusively become the dominant piece of this disturbance, and any spin there has become washed out with the wind flow. They are turning away from the northeast lobe.

Would love them to investigate that area of vort east of Barbados

Indeed as we are now experiencing heavy rains and hearing thunder on the south coast

[Chemmers]

I think it will be cat 1 maybe 2 by the time it get close to Florida

[weathaguyry]

The storm will more than likely stay weak and disorganized as it goes through the Caribbean because of land interaction, shear, and dry air. However, I’m concerned about what happens after it starts moving north along the east coast like some models are showing. Waters are extremely warm, with a large area of 26C anomalies stretching all the way to New York

[MGC]

Should have a tighter circulation tomorrow. Still moving westward too quickly. NHC will likely have to move the forecast track to the left if this continues......MGC

[Do_For_Love]

Yeah that's a good point. If it does ending up tracking the east coast I would be keeping an eye on it myself. We already had Fay go over us this year...

[TallyTracker]

I certainly don’t want to see this storm get into the Gulf. I was just down at St. George Island on Saturday night to view the comet. The waters are extremely warm and primed for potentially intense storms. Hanna has cleared out the dry air and left a very moist unstable atmosphere. If the upper level winds are low, this could become a significant hurricane.

[Weatherboy1]

Euro still liking a path south of FL/through the straits into the SE Gulf. Other models showing a SE FL hit and/or skirting just east of the coast. That spread between far SW and NE models is going to narrow in the next 24 hours or so, and hopefully we'll have a better idea if this Gulf bound, FL bound, or farther up the east coast. Always tough when you have a system approaching from this particular angle

[aspen]

The storm will more than likely stay weak and disorganized as it goes through the Caribbean because of land interaction, shear, and dry air. However, I’m concerned about what happens after it starts moving north along the east coast like some models are showing. Waters are extremely warm, with a large area of 26C anomalies stretching all the way to New York

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/natlanti.fc.gif

Some parts of the southern Gulf Stream are getting close to 31 C. PTC-9 could potentially become a hurricane in that region assuming it already has a decent structure, but based on today’s model runs, it’s looking less likely it’ll try for an East Coast Sweep path through the Gulf Stream.

[NDG]

I don't think recon will find a well defined LLC this afternoon, that vorticity east of Barbados is clear not at the surface by looking at the radar from Barbados.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Sorry for being a little out of the loop but...

Earlier in this thread I saw people saying this system’s large size would give it an edge on surviving the dry air around it.

However in an active storm thread last year (don’t remember which one) 1900hurricane said that larger systems have a tendency to draw in dry air from far away and damage themselves with that.

So...do smaller or larger systems have an advantage when it comes to surviving dry air, or does it depend on the situation?

[wzrgirl1]

For the reconnaissance data I am able to figure out most of it including directional heading, coordinates, wind speeds, etc. however does anyone have a link to a more detailed description. Thanks!

[northjaxpro]

Most models have shifted west and with only a tropical storm which is good news for us.
Now we are at 100% capacity, nothing available. National news is telling people it is a safe beach.
And the tourist came.
As long as the hype for the storm is aimed at someone else we will thrive.
Hoping it stays that way, to try to evac the OBX at full capacity would be a nightmare.

I’m getting Irene vibes off this but too early to tell for now.

I was getting Irene vibes until the last 12-24 hours, with most of the globals becoming tame with intensity and trending towards a storm that recurves far later. Doesn’t seem like PTC-9 will be an East Coast Sweep like Irene or Gloria. I’m thinking there’s a better chance of this making it into the far eastern Gulf like Irma.

Yes, this is my.line of thinking at this juncture currently.

[chaser1]

Most models have shifted west and with only a tropical storm which is good news for us.
Now we are at 100% capacity, nothing available. National news is telling people it is a safe beach.
And the tourist came.
As long as the hype for the storm is aimed at someone else we will thrive.
Hoping it stays that way, to try to evac the OBX at full capacity would be a nightmare.

Tourist? Safe beach? 100% capacity? Can you toss in a couple additional nouns & verbs? Good news for who?

[wxman57]

I think it will be cat 1 maybe 2 by the time it get close to Florida

Based on what? You should include the disclaimer saying that you are not a meteorologist when making such claims.

[AutoPenalti]

I think it will be cat 1 maybe 2 by the time it get close to Florida

Based on what?

Can't you read silly goose, based on his thinking of course.

[ColdMiser123]

For the reconnaissance data I am able to figure out most of it including directional heading, coordinates, wind speeds, etc. however does anyone have a link to a more detailed description. Thanks!

https://www.ofcm.gov/publications/nhop/2020_nhop.pdf

Page 134 has a decoder for the data recon puts out.

[msbee]

thanks for everyone's analyses and opinions and updates.
But now I have a question. I have a cockatoo outside in a big aviary. think I should put him in his small cage and bring him into the house tonight? when will the wind and rain start on St. Maarten? #thingsIworryabout