ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[toad strangler]

:uarrow: ahh, there is a reason folks why the latest west shifts in the models are happening.

Just take a good look at the 700 mb steering. The ridge is stout currently extendind west to the Central Gulf.

The ttough is well back yo the west currently and I do not think the trough will deeply amplify like what GFS showed yesterday in its model runs.

I really hope I am wrong and that the GFS is going to send a Fall like amplified trough to come and get shoved away off the U.S. East Coast. However, I do not see that hsppening fast enough. Isaias likely willl be a major problem for many this weekend. into early next week from Florida north up the U.S. East Coast.

I can not believe the Bahamss is likely going to get heavily impacted by another cyclone so soon after the Dorian catastrophe.

The Bahamas are a HUGE climo hot spot. Even more so than the "Cow Catcher" of the Outer Banks. I'm not surprised at all. That island chain almost literally has cyclone railroad tracks laid out in the atmosphere above them.

[pgoss11]

:uarrow: ahh, there is a reason folks why the latest west shifts in the models are happening.

Just take a good look at the 700 mb steering. The ridge is stout currently extendind west to the Central Gulf.

The ttough is well back yo the west currently and I do not think the trough will deeply amplify like what GFS showed yesterday in its model runs.

I really hope I am wrong and that the GFS is going to send a Fall like amplified trough to come and get shoved away off the U.S. East Coast. However, I do not see that hsppening fast enough. Isaias likely willl be a major problem for many this weekend. into early next week from Florida north up the U.S. East Coast.

I can not believe the Bahamss is likely going to get heavily impacted by another cyclone so soon after the Dorian catastrophe.

Looks like the ridge will be much more stout than what we saw in yesterday’s modeling. That along with the shortwave not nearly as deep or strong as previously forecast the whole eastern seaboard could be in for a nerve-wracking week.

[Evil Jeremy]

Hold up, some of you are saying the GFS underestimated Atlantic ridging and over-amplified a coastal shortwave?

Not once, ever, in all my life, did I think that could happen.

[northjaxpro]

Oh I agree PGoss that certainly the Bahamas is the hot spot in the N Atlantic basin virtually every year. I am just looking at the humanity aspect of this in that they sre about the get whacked again, not even a full year after Ďorian. I just pray somehow this cyvlone does not get as severe as thst monster was last year.

[ronjon]

:uarrow: ahh, there is a reason folks why the latest west shifts in the models are happening.

Just take a good look at the 700 mb steering. The ridge is stout currently extendind west to the Central Gulf.

The ttough is well back yo the west currently and I do not think the trough will deeply amplify like what GFS showed yesterday in its model runs.

I really hope I am wrong and that the GFS is going to send a Fall like amplified trough to come and get shoved away off the U.S. East Coast. However, I do not see that hsppening fast enough. Isaias likely willl be a major problem for many this weekend. into early next week from Florida north up the U.S. East Coast.

I can not believe the Bahamss is likely going to get heavily impacted by another cyclone so soon after the Dorian catasttophe.

Since I'm not the most adept at this, what are the dynamics that will restrict this from strengthening beyond a tropical storm like the nhc map suggests when it'll be riding the gulf stream?

There is a huge almost full latitude trough setting up from the upper midwest to the west gulf coast. CMC and Euro have a slightly positively tilted orientation (SW-NE) with the southern axis near the Tx-La line. GFS has the trough more neutral (N-S) axis with it centered a little further east near NO. The result of these trough positions makes the mid-level ridge get stronger (pumped up) off the SW Atlantic coast for the Euro and CMC and eroded away on the western end in the GFS. The strong trough also imparts some significant SW shear over ISAIAS which some of the globals like Euro, CMC, UKMET are showing keeping the storm relatively weak (TS vs a hurricane). In contrast, the GFS, ICON, NAVGEM erode the ridge enough to keep the strong SW shear in check as the storm is further offshore.

[NDG]

06z Euro is fairly similar to its earlier 0z run, is getting persistent on a landfall, perhaps 10 miles further south and a little slower.

[chris_fit]

Anyone have the 06Z Euro Ens?

[Blown Away]

06z HWRF... Trended W, @1 degree near FL, stays just offshore and landfalls in OBX. Near FL it's @Cat 1/2 and Cat 2 near OBX.

[aspen]

A quick rundown of the latest global model runs:

The Euro and CMC are insistent on either a south Florida or Gulf coast Florida landfall. However, the GFS, GFS-Para, NAVGEM, and ICON all have Isaias stay to the east of Florida and over the Gulf Stream. The difference is likely due to center reformation. The models showing an eastward track have an easy center reformation to the north after interacting with Hispaniola, while the Euro and CMC struggle to do so, especially the latter. Given the new massive convective burst, I think the eastern solutions are the most likely as of now.

[NDG]

As expected, the 12z TVCN consensus model shifted a little to the left.

[AutoPenalti]

A quick rundown of the latest global model runs:

The Euro and CMC are insistent on either a south Florida or Gulf coast Florida landfall. However, the GFS, GFS-Para, NAVGEM, and ICON all have Isaias stay to the east of Florida and over the Gulf Stream. The difference is likely due to center reformation. The models showing an eastward track have an easy center reformation to the north after interacting with Hispaniola, while the Euro and CMC struggle to do so, especially the latter. Given the new massive convective burst, I think the eastern solutions are the most likely as of now.

Well that, and it’s forecasting a deeper ridge and weaker trough.

[NDG]

12z intensity models back down in intensity again.

[DestinHurricane]

A quick rundown of the latest global model runs:

The Euro and CMC are insistent on either a south Florida or Gulf coast Florida landfall. However, the GFS, GFS-Para, NAVGEM, and ICON all have Isaias stay to the east of Florida and over the Gulf Stream. The difference is likely due to center reformation. The models showing an eastward track have an easy center reformation to the north after interacting with Hispaniola, while the Euro and CMC struggle to do so, especially the latter. Given the new massive convective burst, I think the eastern solutions are the most likely as of now.

If the ridge is stronger like the GFS and to lesser extent Euro are suggesting then the strong eastern tracks could be a little closer to S FL.

[caneman]

I think it has more to do with how quickly it ramps back up. If it takes a little longer the Western solutions, if it ramps quicker the Eastern solutions.

[SFLcane]

As expected, the 12z TVCN consensus model shifted a little to the left.

https://i.imgur.com/6hdjBir.gif

Track will be offshore at 11am. We will see. Interesting intensity is back down.

[Weatherboy1]

As expected, the 12z TVCN consensus model shifted a little to the left.

https://i.imgur.com/6hdjBir.gif

I'm getting a real Hurricane David (1979) vibe from this one. Will be very interesting to see the midday model cycle in a few hours. If U.S. models continue the slight shift back to the west from this morning (Vs. overnight), then that would only increase that feeling on my part.

[SouthFLTropics]

Not sure if anyone posted it or not but the 00z NAVGEM has a pretty significant shift left from last evenings 18z and looks stronger as well.

[aspen]

The latest HWRF, HWRF-P, HWRF-Para, and HMON runs all show a successful center reformation to the north, with Isaias becoming a Cat 1 hurricane over the Gulf Stream before hitting North Carolina and riding up the East Coast into New England.

[SoupBone]

06z Euro is fairly similar to its earlier 0z run, is getting persistent on a landfall, perhaps 10 miles further south and a little slower.

https://i.imgur.com/DG0eXGl.png

For whatever reason (likely that trough), the models seems to be honing in. Whether they are right or wrong remains to be seen.

[chris_fit]

Not sure if anyone posted it or not but the 06z NAVGEM has a pretty significant shift left from the 00z and looks stronger as well.

https://i.imgur.com/OOGvU4u.gif

that's the 18Z from yesterday and the 00Z