ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1981 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 30, 2020 8:36 am

Just wait until the SE flow hit the South east side of the mountains..


think of a tether ball..
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1982 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Jul 30, 2020 8:39 am

jaxfladude wrote:So still too early to say what if any impacts for NE FLORIDA?

Edit Prayers for those impacted


Just do preps and watch carefully or stay on.here with is for the latest. We will see impacts here JaxDude. We just do not know the severity of it yet. We will know more the next 24 hours hopefully
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1983 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Jul 30, 2020 8:39 am

Aric Dunn wrote:Just wait until the SE flow hit the South east side of the mountains..


think of a tether ball..

I can only think of it slapping my face when I lose concentration for 1 second.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1984 Postby Vdogg » Thu Jul 30, 2020 8:43 am

Looks like center reformation may have already happened.
 https://twitter.com/kevishader/status/1288828094606974981


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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1985 Postby tropicwatch » Thu Jul 30, 2020 8:43 am

Sure do wish the HH would go ahead and check the Mona Passage and North of the DR.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1986 Postby NDG » Thu Jul 30, 2020 8:44 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
NDG wrote:Circulation is still elongated, it shouldn't be problem for the LLC reform on the northern coast of Hispaniola later today as mentioned before.

https://i.imgur.com/aLq7Atz.png


Dont count on it..

most of the energy is heading over land and high terrain.


06z Euro shows the h70 & h50 vorticity, fairly stacked on top of each other, riding the northern coast of Hispaniola.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1987 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 30, 2020 8:47 am

NDG wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
NDG wrote:Circulation is still elongated, it shouldn't be problem for the LLC reform on the northern coast of Hispaniola later today as mentioned before.

https://i.imgur.com/aLq7Atz.png


Dont count on it..

most of the energy is heading over land and high terrain.


06z Euro shows the h70 & h50 vorticity, fairly stacked on top of each other, riding the northern coast of Hispaniola.


well we dont need models right now..

we can see it has now moved over land.. so now we just wait to see what happens.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1988 Postby Weatherboy1 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 8:49 am

gatorcane wrote:Palm Beach post headline:

Isaias Storm: Tropical Storm now but could be hurricane strength as it nears Florida.”

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/


I'm definitely getting a Hurricane David (1979) vibe from this one. Fortunately nowhere near the strength David was when it hit the island of Hispanola. But in terms of future track? If midday U.S. models (GFS etc) today continue the morning shift west (after the overnight shift east), I'm going to be very concerned for a grazing-of-East-Coast-FL scenario
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1989 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Jul 30, 2020 8:51 am

Is it possible the center relocation maybe too close to Hispaniola for them to fly into and need for it to move away a bit before checking it out, it’s up to the officials of the Dominican Republic as it’s their airspace
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1990 Postby Kazmit » Thu Jul 30, 2020 8:53 am

If the center is indeed over land, it is over one of the least mountainous regions of the island.

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1991 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Jul 30, 2020 8:53 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
NDG wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
Dont count on it..

most of the energy is heading over land and high terrain.


06z Euro shows the h70 & h50 vorticity, fairly stacked on top of each other, riding the northern coast of Hispaniola.


well we dont need models right now..

we can see it has now moved over land.. so now we just wait to see what happens.
we have moved into NOWCAST territory
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1992 Postby NDG » Thu Jul 30, 2020 8:54 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
NDG wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
Dont count on it..

most of the energy is heading over land and high terrain.


06z Euro shows the h70 & h50 vorticity, fairly stacked on top of each other, riding the northern coast of Hispaniola.


well we dont need models right now..

we can see it has now moved over land.. so now we just wait to see what happens.


I disagree, is riding the northern coast.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1993 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 30, 2020 8:57 am

Kazmit wrote:If the center is indeed over land, it is over one of the least mountainous regions of the island.

https://i.imgur.com/bAfNd7p.jpeg


yeah.. the lowest areas are still 100 to 1000 meters. . and the strip along the north coast is from 1500 to 2000 meters.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1994 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Jul 30, 2020 8:57 am

Weatherboy1 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Palm Beach post headline:

Isaias Storm: Tropical Storm now but could be hurricane strength as it nears Florida.”

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/


I'm definitely getting a Hurricane David (1979) vibe from this one. Fortunately nowhere near the strength David was when it hit the island of Hispanola. But in terms of future track? If midday U.S. models (GFS etc) today continue the morning shift west (after the overnight shift east), I'm going to be very concerned for a grazing-of-East-Coast-FL scenario


I remember David very well back in "79. This indeed has a chance to mimick that analog just in terms of track.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1995 Postby tiger_deF » Thu Jul 30, 2020 8:59 am

Looks like team west blob and team east blog have metamorphasized into team riding the coast and team over land :D
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1996 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 30, 2020 8:59 am

NDG wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
NDG wrote:
06z Euro shows the h70 & h50 vorticity, fairly stacked on top of each other, riding the northern coast of Hispaniola.


well we dont need models right now..

we can see it has now moved over land.. so now we just wait to see what happens.


I disagree, is riding the northern coast.


will be crossing areas of lows and very highs..

just have to wait till it passes HIspaniola to see how it emerges.

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1997 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:00 am

northjaxpro wrote:
Weatherboy1 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Palm Beach post headline:

Isaias Storm: Tropical Storm now but could be hurricane strength as it nears Florida.”

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/


I'm definitely getting a Hurricane David (1979) vibe from this one. Fortunately nowhere near the strength David was when it hit the island of Hispanola. But in terms of future track? If midday U.S. models (GFS etc) today continue the morning shift west (after the overnight shift east), I'm going to be very concerned for a grazing-of-East-Coast-FL scenario


I remember David very well back in "79. This indeed has a chance to mimick that analog just in terms of track.


more closely relates to Debbie.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1998 Postby NDG » Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:11 am

Punta Cana now reporting wind gusts to 60 mph. 1005mb.


METAR for: MDPC (Punta Cana Intl, --, DR)
Text: MDPC 301400Z 13032G52KT 7000 RS FEW012CB BKN014 OVC07027/25 Q1005 CB/E/SE/S/N
Temperature: 27.0°C ( 81°F)
Dewpoint: 25.0°C ( 77°F) [RH = 89%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.68 inches Hg (1005.0 mb)
Winds: from the SE (130 degrees) at 37 MPH (32 knots; 16.5 m/s) gusting to 60 MPH (52 knots; 26.7 m/s)
Visibility: 4 sm ( 7 km)
Ceiling: 1400 feet AGL
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1999 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:13 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
Weatherboy1 wrote:
I'm definitely getting a Hurricane David (1979) vibe from this one. Fortunately nowhere near the strength David was when it hit the island of Hispanola. But in terms of future track? If midday U.S. models (GFS etc) today continue the morning shift west (after the overnight shift east), I'm going to be very concerned for a grazing-of-East-Coast-FL scenario


I remember David very well back in "79. This indeed has a chance to mimick that analog just in terms of track.


more closely relates to Debbie.


David was a Cat 5 hurricane before getting badly disrupted after striking Hispaniola. However,he recovered to become a Cat 1 cane and moved North , making landfall in Palm Beach, then.moved parallel up along the Florida East Coast, with the eyewall passing just 35 miles off of Jacksonville Beach. .It made a second landfall up the coast near Savannah. Jax had storm force winds up to 50 mph on the outer edge of the western eyewall as he passed just east of here off the coast.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2000 Postby Meteophile » Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:13 am

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