ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Just wait until the SE flow hit the South east side of the mountains..


think of a tether ball..

[northjaxpro]

So still too early to say what if any impacts for NE FLORIDA?

Edit Prayers for those impacted

Just do preps and watch carefully or stay on.here with is for the latest. We will see impacts here JaxDude. We just do not know the severity of it yet. We will know more the next 24 hours hopefully
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[AutoPenalti]

Just wait until the SE flow hit the South east side of the mountains..


think of a tether ball..

I can only think of it slapping my face when I lose concentration for 1 second.

[Vdogg]

Looks like center reformation may have already happened.
 https://twitter.com/kevishader/status/1288828094606974981

[tropicwatch]

Sure do wish the HH would go ahead and check the Mona Passage and North of the DR.

[NDG]

Circulation is still elongated, it shouldn't be problem for the LLC reform on the northern coast of Hispaniola later today as mentioned before.

https://i.imgur.com/aLq7Atz.png

Dont count on it..

most of the energy is heading over land and high terrain.

06z Euro shows the h70 & h50 vorticity, fairly stacked on top of each other, riding the northern coast of Hispaniola.

[Aric Dunn]

Circulation is still elongated, it shouldn't be problem for the LLC reform on the northern coast of Hispaniola later today as mentioned before.

https://i.imgur.com/aLq7Atz.png

Dont count on it..

most of the energy is heading over land and high terrain.

06z Euro shows the h70 & h50 vorticity, fairly stacked on top of each other, riding the northern coast of Hispaniola.

well we dont need models right now..

we can see it has now moved over land.. so now we just wait to see what happens.

[Weatherboy1]

Palm Beach post headline:

“Isaias Storm: Tropical Storm now but could be hurricane strength as it nears Florida.”

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/

I'm definitely getting a Hurricane David (1979) vibe from this one. Fortunately nowhere near the strength David was when it hit the island of Hispanola. But in terms of future track? If midday U.S. models (GFS etc) today continue the morning shift west (after the overnight shift east), I'm going to be very concerned for a grazing-of-East-Coast-FL scenario

[Hurricaneman]

Is it possible the center relocation maybe too close to Hispaniola for them to fly into and need for it to move away a bit before checking it out, it’s up to the officials of the Dominican Republic as it’s their airspace

[Kazmit]

If the center is indeed over land, it is over one of the least mountainous regions of the island.

[jlauderdal]

Dont count on it..

most of the energy is heading over land and high terrain.

06z Euro shows the h70 & h50 vorticity, fairly stacked on top of each other, riding the northern coast of Hispaniola.

well we dont need models right now..

we can see it has now moved over land.. so now we just wait to see what happens.

we have moved into NOWCAST territory

[NDG]

Dont count on it..

most of the energy is heading over land and high terrain.

06z Euro shows the h70 & h50 vorticity, fairly stacked on top of each other, riding the northern coast of Hispaniola.

well we dont need models right now..

we can see it has now moved over land.. so now we just wait to see what happens.

I disagree, is riding the northern coast.

[Aric Dunn]

If the center is indeed over land, it is over one of the least mountainous regions of the island.

https://i.imgur.com/bAfNd7p.jpeg

yeah.. the lowest areas are still 100 to 1000 meters. . and the strip along the north coast is from 1500 to 2000 meters.

[northjaxpro]

Palm Beach post headline:

“Isaias Storm: Tropical Storm now but could be hurricane strength as it nears Florida.”

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/

I'm definitely getting a Hurricane David (1979) vibe from this one. Fortunately nowhere near the strength David was when it hit the island of Hispanola. But in terms of future track? If midday U.S. models (GFS etc) today continue the morning shift west (after the overnight shift east), I'm going to be very concerned for a grazing-of-East-Coast-FL scenario

I remember David very well back in "79. This indeed has a chance to mimick that analog just in terms of track.

[tiger_deF]

Looks like team west blob and team east blog have metamorphasized into team riding the coast and team over land

[Aric Dunn]

06z Euro shows the h70 & h50 vorticity, fairly stacked on top of each other, riding the northern coast of Hispaniola.

well we dont need models right now..

we can see it has now moved over land.. so now we just wait to see what happens.

I disagree, is riding the northern coast.

will be crossing areas of lows and very highs..

just have to wait till it passes HIspaniola to see how it emerges.

[Aric Dunn]

Palm Beach post headline:

“Isaias Storm: Tropical Storm now but could be hurricane strength as it nears Florida.”

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/

I'm definitely getting a Hurricane David (1979) vibe from this one. Fortunately nowhere near the strength David was when it hit the island of Hispanola. But in terms of future track? If midday U.S. models (GFS etc) today continue the morning shift west (after the overnight shift east), I'm going to be very concerned for a grazing-of-East-Coast-FL scenario

I remember David very well back in "79. This indeed has a chance to mimick that analog just in terms of track.

more closely relates to Debbie.

[NDG]

Punta Cana now reporting wind gusts to 60 mph. 1005mb.


METAR for: MDPC (Punta Cana Intl, --, DR)
Text: MDPC 301400Z 13032G52KT 7000 RS FEW012CB BKN014 OVC07027/25 Q1005 CB/E/SE/S/N
Temperature: 27.0°C ( 81°F)
Dewpoint: 25.0°C ( 77°F) [RH = 89%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.68 inches Hg (1005.0 mb)
Winds: from the SE (130 degrees) at 37 MPH (32 knots; 16.5 m/s) gusting to 60 MPH (52 knots; 26.7 m/s)
Visibility: 4 sm ( 7 km)
Ceiling: 1400 feet AGL

[northjaxpro]

I'm definitely getting a Hurricane David (1979) vibe from this one. Fortunately nowhere near the strength David was when it hit the island of Hispanola. But in terms of future track? If midday U.S. models (GFS etc) today continue the morning shift west (after the overnight shift east), I'm going to be very concerned for a grazing-of-East-Coast-FL scenario

I remember David very well back in "79. This indeed has a chance to mimick that analog just in terms of track.

more closely relates to Debbie.

David was a Cat 5 hurricane before getting badly disrupted after striking Hispaniola. However,he recovered to become a Cat 1 cane and moved North , making landfall in Palm Beach, then.moved parallel up along the Florida East Coast, with the eyewall passing just 35 miles off of Jacksonville Beach. .It made a second landfall up the coast near Savannah. Jax had storm force winds up to 50 mph on the outer edge of the western eyewall as he passed just east of here off the coast.

[Meteophile]

 https://twitter.com/Meteophile1/status/1288839461359493120