ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Evil Jeremy]

Huh...

https://i.imgur.com/SwaX6QJ.png

What are you seeing?

[NDG]

So that's an open wave....

Look at the recon data. No well-defined closed circulation. I.E., a wave axis. That big blob of convection does not have a surface center, yet. It's developing one now.

With all due respect, recon didn’t even go far enough west to sample the area where the center should be now.

ASCAT this morning showed that it had a dying LLC further south, with MSLPs higher than closer to eastern Hispaniola, it was also elongated like the recon indicated.

Edit, you can the effects the high mountains over Hispaniola due to the circulation on the NW quadrant.

[Evenstar]

I’m still hoping the eastern side of this stays clear of us here in the treasure coast. My wife put a sign up in my office saying “buy a generator” 3 days ago and I’ve been slacking... I’ll never here the end of it if a generator is actually necessary.

I laughed at this, only because my wife would do the same. We have one in the garage, but haven't fired it up this year (yet). Best of luck... (And go get one....)

I think I’ll take lunch around 11 and go grab one instead of the pain that’ll come if I don’t

A cautionary tale... I taped a large sign over my husband's workbench in the garage threatening violence if he didn't go buy a generator. That seemed to do the trick and we are both much happier now...

[AutoPenalti]

Huh...

https://i.imgur.com/SwaX6QJ.png

What are you seeing?

Orientation of the shortwave, not sure the GFS is right with the strength of the trough.

[ScottNAtlanta]

JB mentioned the 15 degree rule today (I've heard it elsewhere too). A troff axis 15 degrees or more ventilates and helps strengthening...closer, you get shear.

[WeatherEmperor]

The 2pm advisory is out and no watches have been issued for Florida yet. Perhaps 5pm??


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[psyclone]

The 2pm advisory is out and no watches have been issued for Florida yet. Perhaps 5pm??


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unless something crazy happens you won't get watch/warning updates on intermediate advisories.

[southportwxfan]

I certainly hope the GFS ensemble tracks right. As of now that black center line has it coming in right over me

[HurricaneEnzo]

Some sort of pressure wave or something can be seen emanating from the SE portion of the storm. Do those typically mean anything as far as strengthening or weakening?

https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satloop ... roduct=vis

[Hurricaneman]

Those people from Miami to Boston need to keep an eye on this, the models want to send a hurricane through eastern North Carolina/outer banks to Long Island/New England

I for one see redevelopment of the low north of Hispaniola as we speak and this could intensify more quickly than forecast depending on shear

[jlauderdal]

The 2pm advisory is out and no watches have been issued for Florida yet. Perhaps 5pm??


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TS Watch Key largo to Vero Beach at 5 seems reasonable, eventually ts warning and hurricane watch but never makes it to a hurricane warning for anywhere in florida

[stormhunter7]

May have to disagree with the 2pm location by NHC... looks like an eye trying to develop over the northern coast in the circulation which looks to be offshore.

[GCANE]

That 925mb vort south of Haiti is getting more orange.
The vort to the east of it is getting less red.
Biggest rain rate convection is south of Hispaniola and just about between the two.

[cp79]

I think the models have a grasp on this now. Definitely looking like another Dorian and Matthew where it will get dangerously close to the coast. If I had to guess, I would say it will just stay offshore just based off history. These things always seem to have minds of their own and know where The East Coast is and scare it before becoming a fish. They always hate the Bahamas though.

[FireRat]

Huh...

https://i.imgur.com/SwaX6QJ.png

What are you seeing?

Isaias looking kind of ominous huh. Like a buzz saw trying to spin up per that image, despite interacting with Hispaniola.

[HurricaneFrances04]

The 2pm advisory is out and no watches have been issued for Florida yet. Perhaps 5pm??


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TS Watch Key largo to Vero Beach at 5 seems reasonable, eventually ts warning and hurricane watch but never makes it to a hurricane warning for anywhere in florida

Wouldn't be surprised to see the TS Watch in the NW Bahamas get upgrades to a Hurricane Warning at 5 pm too.

[GCANE]

The anti-cyclone is over the high rain-rate convection south of Hispaniola.
The convection north of Hispaniola is running into heavy shear.

[aspen]

May have to disagree with the 2pm location by NHC... looks like an eye trying to develop over the northern coast in the circulation which looks to be offshore.

I agree. Looks like the actual center is either on or just a little off of the coast, around 19.5N/69.7W.

[Jr0d]

The 2pm advisory is out and no watches have been issued for Florida yet. Perhaps 5pm??


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TS Watch Key largo to Vero Beach at 5 seems reasonable, eventually ts warning and hurricane watch but never makes it to a hurricane warning for anywhere in florida

Im thinking further norrth, at least to Cape Caneveral. Unless there is new model data that trends more west, I think Key Largo will be the start. Doubtful I will see a watch in here in Key West.

[cp79]

The center is just going to stay north of the hurricane graveyard which are the high mountains in Hispaniola which have destroyed many a storm. The north of the island isn’t that bad. Some mountains but not nearly the elevation as those on the west central side.

This means intensification which should also mean a more easterly track like the GFS/Euro have it. A weak storm ripped apart wouldn’t feel the influence of the trough as much and would prolly Have even gotten into the Gulf.