ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Evil Jeremy
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2161 Postby Evil Jeremy » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:27 pm

HurricaneFrances04 wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:The 2pm advisory is out and no watches have been issued for Florida yet. Perhaps 5pm??


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TS Watch Key largo to Vero Beach at 5 seems reasonable, eventually ts warning and hurricane watch but never makes it to a hurricane warning for anywhere in florida


Wouldn't be surprised to see the TS Watch in the NW Bahamas get upgrades to a Hurricane Warning at 5 pm too.


NHC would never jump right to a Hurricane Warning from a TS Watch, but a TS Warning/H Watch combo for the NW Bahamas is certainly in the cards.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2162 Postby FireRat » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:27 pm

I'm not liking the shape Isaias is taking on right now, once it develops its LLC this could intensify fast over the warm waters between FL and where he is now. Hispaniola has barely done anything to disrupt Isaias, in fact he looks much more organized after interacting with the mountainous island. :eek:

It is kind of early for a major to form in this region, but the way the year has been so far, we might need to keep a wary eye on this storm in case it goes RI. Late July/ Early August is awfully early still for a big FL strike from the east, but Bahamas and Carolinas might be in for quite a surprise IMO, while FL gets a scare but hopefully not a direct landfall, which would be devastating among the current Covid crisis there now.
Last edited by FireRat on Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2163 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:28 pm

The anticipated center relocation is probably happening.

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2164 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:28 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
HurricaneFrances04 wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:TS Watch Key largo to Vero Beach at 5 seems reasonable, eventually ts warning and hurricane watch but never makes it to a hurricane warning for anywhere in florida


Wouldn't be surprised to see the TS Watch in the NW Bahamas get upgrades to a Hurricane Warning at 5 pm too.


NHC would never jump right to a Hurricane Warning from a TS Watch, but a TS Warning/H Watch combo for the NW Bahamas is certainly in the cards.


They will if they forecast it to become a hurricane in 48 hours.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2165 Postby cp79 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:29 pm

FireRat wrote:I'm not liking the shape Isaias is taking on right now, once it develops its LLC this could intensify fast over the warm waters between FL and where he is now. Hispaniola has barely done anything to disrupt Isaias, in fact he looks much more organized after interacting with the mountainous island. :eek:

It is kind of early for a major to form in this region, but the way the year has been so far, we might need to keep a wary eye on this storm in case it goes RI. Late July/ Early August is awfully early still for a FL strike from the east, but Bahamas and Carolinas might be in for quite a surprise IMO, while FL gets a scare but hopefully not a direct landfall, which would be devastating among the current Covid crisis there now.


As it gets closer to Fla there is some shear that should keep this from getting past a cat 1. It has a 24-hour window now to get ramped up before facing more hostile conditions.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2166 Postby cp79 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:31 pm

supercane4867 wrote:The anticipated center relocation is probably happening.

https://i.imgur.com/UIRtO6m.gif


You can see where the highest mountains are. Clouds on the west side of the island get torn apart as it meets them. The new center is going to stay clear of that.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2167 Postby pgoss11 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:34 pm

supercane4867 wrote:The anticipated center relocation is probably happening.

https://i.imgur.com/UIRtO6m.gif


Is that the COC in the middle of the northern coastline?
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2168 Postby Kazmit » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:38 pm

pgoss11 wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:The anticipated center relocation is probably happening.

https://i.imgur.com/UIRtO6m.gif


Is that the COC in the middle of the northern coastline?

I see it just north of the Samaná peninsula.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2169 Postby hohnywx » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:39 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
HurricaneFrances04 wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:TS Watch Key largo to Vero Beach at 5 seems reasonable, eventually ts warning and hurricane watch but never makes it to a hurricane warning for anywhere in florida


Wouldn't be surprised to see the TS Watch in the NW Bahamas get upgrades to a Hurricane Warning at 5 pm too.


NHC would never jump right to a Hurricane Warning from a TS Watch, but a TS Warning/H Watch combo for the NW Bahamas is certainly in the cards.


Technically, watches/warnings are not issued by NHC, but the governments of the respective countries. It would be odd though for a government body to go from a TS Watch to Hurricane Warning.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2170 Postby Weatherboy1 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:41 pm

Two things that I "think" I know about Isaias here: 1) He is not getting disrupted to a very serious degree by Hispanola. It seems clear to me a center is re-forming or will re-form soon along the northern coast of the island where the deep convection is. That means he didn't/won't get shredded by the highest peaks there. 2) This is going to be DARN close to east coastal Florida. Almost every main model is now showing a path either right along or <100 miles east of FL on the recurve/path north. Some like the Canadian, Euro, and UKMET are either direct hits or might as well be - even an error of 10-20 miles would bring an eyewall on shore in the latter two cases here in the Palm Beach/Martin county areas. So, definitely watching very closely. Suppose we could always get that fabled "last minute easterly shift." But we're at the point where models get pretty accurate, or should theoretically be so
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2171 Postby marciacubed » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:43 pm

Could there be an ERC north of Hispaniola? I have a very untrained eye but have followed storms here for many many years. The last frames seem like it has totally been unaffected by Hispaniola.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2172 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:46 pm

marciacubed wrote:Could there be an ERC north of Hispaniola? I have a very untrained eye but have followed storms here for many many years. The last frames seem like it has totally been unaffected by Hispaniola.

Can’t have an ERC without an eye or a LLC for that matter
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2173 Postby Evenstar » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:49 pm

marciacubed wrote:Could there be an ERC north of Hispaniola? I have a very untrained eye but have followed storms here for many many years. The last frames seem like it has totally been unaffected by Hispaniola.


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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2174 Postby NFLnut » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:50 pm

Hope these latest models hold pretty close. My niece is getting married Saturday at 530 in the Orlando area. They planned an outdoor garden wedding for Saturday (I know .. I know) but these poor kids were supposed to get married back in May and decided to postpone for 2+ months because of this stupid Covid nonsense. Then .. THIS storm had to evolve and come straight toward FL just in time .. . I really hope they have just enough of a window for a nice event (they have an indoor backup but I want them to have it outside just because of all of their hardship). The reception, fortunately, was always planned for indoors.

Before this storm evolved we joked about pestilence, calamity, disease (,alien invasion?) wouldn't keep them apart. Guess we shouldn't have joked .. :roll:
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2175 Postby Emmett_Brown » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:50 pm

Just eye balling the visible loop, the whole system seems to be moving quickly for sure. NW 20 mph per the 2pm NHC advisory. It's a race to meet the trough before turning N, so forward speed is something to watch
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2176 Postby Blown Away » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:51 pm

Image
LLC feature riding the N coast @19.5N/70W... Looks like Isaias is moving faster, supposed to pass 71.4 at 8pm, might be sooner?
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2177 Postby NDG » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:53 pm

The mid level circulation has been riding along the northern coast of Hispaniola, just like the Euro was forecasting it to do. This thing will take off as soon as it moves away from Hispaniola later tonight. Isaias chances of becoming a hurricane over the Bahamas is going up by the minute. IMO.

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2178 Postby Kat5 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:54 pm

It’s really booking it rn. Tells you a lot about the strength of the Bermuda high.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2179 Postby marciacubed » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:55 pm

Evenstar wrote:
marciacubed wrote:Could there be an ERC north of Hispaniola? I have a very untrained eye but have followed storms here for many many years. The last frames seem like it has totally been unaffected by Hispaniola.


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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2180 Postby crimi481 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:56 pm

Yes- strong high pressure. That big blob in the tail getting bigger?
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