ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Evil Jeremy]

The 2pm advisory is out and no watches have been issued for Florida yet. Perhaps 5pm??


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TS Watch Key largo to Vero Beach at 5 seems reasonable, eventually ts warning and hurricane watch but never makes it to a hurricane warning for anywhere in florida

Wouldn't be surprised to see the TS Watch in the NW Bahamas get upgrades to a Hurricane Warning at 5 pm too.

NHC would never jump right to a Hurricane Warning from a TS Watch, but a TS Warning/H Watch combo for the NW Bahamas is certainly in the cards.

[FireRat]

I'm not liking the shape Isaias is taking on right now, once it develops its LLC this could intensify fast over the warm waters between FL and where he is now. Hispaniola has barely done anything to disrupt Isaias, in fact he looks much more organized after interacting with the mountainous island.

It is kind of early for a major to form in this region, but the way the year has been so far, we might need to keep a wary eye on this storm in case it goes RI. Late July/ Early August is awfully early still for a big FL strike from the east, but Bahamas and Carolinas might be in for quite a surprise IMO, while FL gets a scare but hopefully not a direct landfall, which would be devastating among the current Covid crisis there now.

[supercane4867]

The anticipated center relocation is probably happening.

[HurricaneFrances04]

TS Watch Key largo to Vero Beach at 5 seems reasonable, eventually ts warning and hurricane watch but never makes it to a hurricane warning for anywhere in florida

Wouldn't be surprised to see the TS Watch in the NW Bahamas get upgrades to a Hurricane Warning at 5 pm too.

NHC would never jump right to a Hurricane Warning from a TS Watch, but a TS Warning/H Watch combo for the NW Bahamas is certainly in the cards.

They will if they forecast it to become a hurricane in 48 hours.

[cp79]

I'm not liking the shape Isaias is taking on right now, once it develops its LLC this could intensify fast over the warm waters between FL and where he is now. Hispaniola has barely done anything to disrupt Isaias, in fact he looks much more organized after interacting with the mountainous island.

It is kind of early for a major to form in this region, but the way the year has been so far, we might need to keep a wary eye on this storm in case it goes RI. Late July/ Early August is awfully early still for a FL strike from the east, but Bahamas and Carolinas might be in for quite a surprise IMO, while FL gets a scare but hopefully not a direct landfall, which would be devastating among the current Covid crisis there now.

As it gets closer to Fla there is some shear that should keep this from getting past a cat 1. It has a 24-hour window now to get ramped up before facing more hostile conditions.

[cp79]

The anticipated center relocation is probably happening.

https://i.imgur.com/UIRtO6m.gif

You can see where the highest mountains are. Clouds on the west side of the island get torn apart as it meets them. The new center is going to stay clear of that.

[pgoss11]

The anticipated center relocation is probably happening.

https://i.imgur.com/UIRtO6m.gif

Is that the COC in the middle of the northern coastline?

[Kazmit]

The anticipated center relocation is probably happening.

https://i.imgur.com/UIRtO6m.gif

Is that the COC in the middle of the northern coastline?

I see it just north of the Samaná peninsula.

[hohnywx]

TS Watch Key largo to Vero Beach at 5 seems reasonable, eventually ts warning and hurricane watch but never makes it to a hurricane warning for anywhere in florida

Wouldn't be surprised to see the TS Watch in the NW Bahamas get upgrades to a Hurricane Warning at 5 pm too.

NHC would never jump right to a Hurricane Warning from a TS Watch, but a TS Warning/H Watch combo for the NW Bahamas is certainly in the cards.

Technically, watches/warnings are not issued by NHC, but the governments of the respective countries. It would be odd though for a government body to go from a TS Watch to Hurricane Warning.

[Weatherboy1]

Two things that I "think" I know about Isaias here: 1) He is not getting disrupted to a very serious degree by Hispanola. It seems clear to me a center is re-forming or will re-form soon along the northern coast of the island where the deep convection is. That means he didn't/won't get shredded by the highest peaks there. 2) This is going to be DARN close to east coastal Florida. Almost every main model is now showing a path either right along or <100 miles east of FL on the recurve/path north. Some like the Canadian, Euro, and UKMET are either direct hits or might as well be - even an error of 10-20 miles would bring an eyewall on shore in the latter two cases here in the Palm Beach/Martin county areas. So, definitely watching very closely. Suppose we could always get that fabled "last minute easterly shift." But we're at the point where models get pretty accurate, or should theoretically be so

[marciacubed]

Could there be an ERC north of Hispaniola? I have a very untrained eye but have followed storms here for many many years. The last frames seem like it has totally been unaffected by Hispaniola.

[Hurricaneman]

Could there be an ERC north of Hispaniola? I have a very untrained eye but have followed storms here for many many years. The last frames seem like it has totally been unaffected by Hispaniola.

Can’t have an ERC without an eye or a LLC for that matter

[Evenstar]

Could there be an ERC north of Hispaniola? I have a very untrained eye but have followed storms here for many many years. The last frames seem like it has totally been unaffected by Hispaniola.

Marciacubed has to be one of the best usernames ever. Hilarious.

[NFLnut]

Hope these latest models hold pretty close. My niece is getting married Saturday at 530 in the Orlando area. They planned an outdoor garden wedding for Saturday (I know .. I know) but these poor kids were supposed to get married back in May and decided to postpone for 2+ months because of this stupid Covid nonsense. Then .. THIS storm had to evolve and come straight toward FL just in time .. . I really hope they have just enough of a window for a nice event (they have an indoor backup but I want them to have it outside just because of all of their hardship). The reception, fortunately, was always planned for indoors.

Before this storm evolved we joked about pestilence, calamity, disease (,alien invasion?) wouldn't keep them apart. Guess we shouldn't have joked ..

[Emmett_Brown]

Just eye balling the visible loop, the whole system seems to be moving quickly for sure. NW 20 mph per the 2pm NHC advisory. It's a race to meet the trough before turning N, so forward speed is something to watch

[Blown Away]

LLC feature riding the N coast @19.5N/70W... Looks like Isaias is moving faster, supposed to pass 71.4 at 8pm, might be sooner?

[NDG]

The mid level circulation has been riding along the northern coast of Hispaniola, just like the Euro was forecasting it to do. This thing will take off as soon as it moves away from Hispaniola later tonight. Isaias chances of becoming a hurricane over the Bahamas is going up by the minute. IMO.

[Kat5]

It’s really booking it rn. Tells you a lot about the strength of the Bermuda high.

[marciacubed]

Could there be an ERC north of Hispaniola? I have a very untrained eye but have followed storms here for many many years. The last frames seem like it has totally been unaffected by Hispaniola.

Marciacubed has to be one of the best usernames ever. Hilarious.

I decided years ago to just embrace it!!! I still get Marcia Marcia Marcia all the time when I have to give my name. Lol

[crimi481]

Yes- strong high pressure. That big blob in the tail getting bigger?