ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

ADT has the center just off the south shore of Greater Inagua

Update, its on the south shore now.

[Highteeld]

Dominican Republic has been in a major drought for years. I’m sure this helped

Too much of a good thing though

 https://twitter.com/InformativosCa1/status/1288997519091957760

[AdamFirst]

I anticipate hurricane warnings to go up for the east central Florida coast later this morning. Trends have not been our friend here.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[jlauderdal]

With the latest Euro and latest 06z GFS trending westward, Hurricane Watches if not warnings will have to go up for the FL east coast soon.

I wouldnt assume that, the gfs and euro have struggled with the finer details of the system and in their case the finer details of 50 miles makes all the difference of hoisting hurricane watches....there is a huge difference(money) in terms of a hurricanewatch/warning vs TS. Not saying the NHC is making the decision based on money but they know the implications and they know the where the bodies are buried in the modeling

[GCANE]

Miss Piggy should hit that north-shore tower in a few minutes, if they don't change course.
Flying at 700mb, 10,000 ft.

[jlauderdal]

We have an outflow boundry heading into SE FLorida this morning from the system...interesting feature that is generating convection

[artist]

With the latest Euro and latest 06z GFS trending westward, Hurricane Watches if not warnings will have to go up for the FL east coast soon.

I wouldnt assume that, the gfs and euro have struggled with the finer details of the system and in their case the finer details of 50 miles makes all the difference of hoisting hurricane watches....there is a huge difference(money) in terms of a hurricanewatch/warning vs TS. Not saying the NHC is making the decision based on money but they know the implications and they know the where the bodies are buried in the modeling

It’s a nail biter here in north Palm Beach county. Recon is headed back in now, but the last recon found the highest wind field out nw of the center for more than a hundred miles. And with several of the models brushing or just coming inland I am a little concerned. Can’t wait to see what recon finds.

[eastcoastFL]

With the latest Euro and latest 06z GFS trending westward, Hurricane Watches if not warnings will have to go up for the FL east coast soon.

I wouldnt assume that, the gfs and euro have struggled with the finer details of the system and in their case the finer details of 50 miles makes all the difference of hoisting hurricane watches....there is a huge difference(money) in terms of a hurricanewatch/warning vs TS. Not saying the NHC is making the decision based on money but they know the implications and they know the where the bodies are buried in the modeling

I agree. I think we'll see our ts watches change to TS warnings before anything else. They still have time to go to cane warnings if necessary.

[xironman]

Miss Piggy should hit that north-shore tower in a few minutes, if they don't change course.
Flying at 700mb, 10,000 ft.

I was wondering if they would fly over Great Iguana...

[NDG]

With the latest Euro and latest 06z GFS trending westward, Hurricane Watches if not warnings will have to go up for the FL east coast soon.

I wouldnt assume that, the gfs and euro have struggled with the finer details of the system and in their case the finer details of 50 miles makes all the difference of hoisting hurricane watches....there is a huge difference(money) in terms of a hurricanewatch/warning vs TS. Not saying the NHC is making the decision based on money but they know the implications and they know the where the bodies are buried in the modeling

You are talking nonsense, about money? With the 0z Euro shifting west, Euro ensembles mean on top of the coast of FL, 06z GFS shifting west, the 12z TVCN will shift west and so will the track at 11 AM and so will Hurricane Watches and or Warnings for parts of the FL East Coast.

[NDG]

CoC, a little further south than thought.

100230 2107N 07332W 6955 03108 9909 +150 +097 094017 019 /// /// 03

[northjaxpro]

With the latest Euro and latest 06z GFS trending westward, Hurricane Watches if not warnings will have to go up for the FL east coast soon.

Probably. They may do it at 8.a.m.

[jlauderdal]

With the latest Euro and latest 06z GFS trending westward, Hurricane Watches if not warnings will have to go up for the FL east coast soon.

I wouldnt assume that, the gfs and euro have struggled with the finer details of the system and in their case the finer details of 50 miles makes all the difference of hoisting hurricane watches....there is a huge difference(money) in terms of a hurricanewatch/warning vs TS. Not saying the NHC is making the decision based on money but they know the implications and they know the where the bodies are buried in the modeling

You are talking nonsense, about money? With the 0z Euro shifting west, Euro ensembles mean on top of the coast of FL, 06z GFS shifting west, the 12z TVCN will shift west and so will the track at 11 AM and so will Hurricane Watches and or Warnings for parts of the FL East Coast.

k, will see what they do at 11

[Highteeld]

[GCANE]

Took at right and did fly over the island

[DestinHurricane]

Models shifting west while still initializing too far north. This could go further west than some people are thinking.

[Highteeld]

Chances of hurricane watches going up somewhere along the east coast today seem to be increasing quickly

[GCANE]

2mb drop from last recon

[northjaxpro]

Another blow up near the center. Looks like great outflow!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv-mid

High holding strong for now.



Where exactly is the trough?

At the current time, it is well back to the west over the Mississippi River Valley extending southwest into Texas.

700 mb ridge in.place (thumb ridge) extends to about 90 degrees Longitude (Central GOM)

[Steve H.]

Interesting that they included lake Okeechobee in the advisory. Don't think that was in the original. That's about 40 miles west of Stuart.