ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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GCANE
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#2681 Postby GCANE » Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:50 am

GCANE wrote:ADT has the center just off the south shore of Greater Inagua


Update, its on the south shore now.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#2682 Postby Highteeld » Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:53 am

lando wrote:Dominican Republic has been in a major drought for years. I’m sure this helped

Too much of a good thing though

 https://twitter.com/InformativosCa1/status/1288997519091957760


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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#2683 Postby AdamFirst » Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:54 am

I anticipate hurricane warnings to go up for the east central Florida coast later this morning. Trends have not been our friend here.


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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#2684 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:56 am

NDG wrote:With the latest Euro and latest 06z GFS trending westward, Hurricane Watches if not warnings will have to go up for the FL east coast soon.
I wouldnt assume that, the gfs and euro have struggled with the finer details of the system and in their case the finer details of 50 miles makes all the difference of hoisting hurricane watches....there is a huge difference(money) in terms of a hurricanewatch/warning vs TS. Not saying the NHC is making the decision based on money but they know the implications and they know the where the bodies are buried in the modeling
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#2685 Postby GCANE » Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:02 am

Miss Piggy should hit that north-shore tower in a few minutes, if they don't change course.
Flying at 700mb, 10,000 ft.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#2686 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:05 am

We have an outflow boundry heading into SE FLorida this morning from the system...interesting feature that is generating convection
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#2687 Postby artist » Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:06 am

jlauderdal wrote:
NDG wrote:With the latest Euro and latest 06z GFS trending westward, Hurricane Watches if not warnings will have to go up for the FL east coast soon.
I wouldnt assume that, the gfs and euro have struggled with the finer details of the system and in their case the finer details of 50 miles makes all the difference of hoisting hurricane watches....there is a huge difference(money) in terms of a hurricanewatch/warning vs TS. Not saying the NHC is making the decision based on money but they know the implications and they know the where the bodies are buried in the modeling

It’s a nail biter here in north Palm Beach county. Recon is headed back in now, but the last recon found the highest wind field out nw of the center for more than a hundred miles. And with several of the models brushing or just coming inland I am a little concerned. Can’t wait to see what recon finds.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#2688 Postby eastcoastFL » Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:06 am

jlauderdal wrote:
NDG wrote:With the latest Euro and latest 06z GFS trending westward, Hurricane Watches if not warnings will have to go up for the FL east coast soon.
I wouldnt assume that, the gfs and euro have struggled with the finer details of the system and in their case the finer details of 50 miles makes all the difference of hoisting hurricane watches....there is a huge difference(money) in terms of a hurricanewatch/warning vs TS. Not saying the NHC is making the decision based on money but they know the implications and they know the where the bodies are buried in the modeling



I agree. I think we'll see our ts watches change to TS warnings before anything else. They still have time to go to cane warnings if necessary.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#2689 Postby xironman » Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:06 am

GCANE wrote:Miss Piggy should hit that north-shore tower in a few minutes, if they don't change course.
Flying at 700mb, 10,000 ft.


I was wondering if they would fly over Great Iguana...
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#2690 Postby NDG » Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:07 am

jlauderdal wrote:
NDG wrote:With the latest Euro and latest 06z GFS trending westward, Hurricane Watches if not warnings will have to go up for the FL east coast soon.
I wouldnt assume that, the gfs and euro have struggled with the finer details of the system and in their case the finer details of 50 miles makes all the difference of hoisting hurricane watches....there is a huge difference(money) in terms of a hurricanewatch/warning vs TS. Not saying the NHC is making the decision based on money but they know the implications and they know the where the bodies are buried in the modeling


You are talking nonsense, about money? With the 0z Euro shifting west, Euro ensembles mean on top of the coast of FL, 06z GFS shifting west, the 12z TVCN will shift west and so will the track at 11 AM and so will Hurricane Watches and or Warnings for parts of the FL East Coast.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#2691 Postby NDG » Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:10 am

CoC, a little further south than thought.

100230 2107N 07332W 6955 03108 9909 +150 +097 094017 019 /// /// 03
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#2692 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:11 am

NDG wrote:With the latest Euro and latest 06z GFS trending westward, Hurricane Watches if not warnings will have to go up for the FL east coast soon.


Probably. They may do it at 8.a.m.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#2693 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:12 am

NDG wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
NDG wrote:With the latest Euro and latest 06z GFS trending westward, Hurricane Watches if not warnings will have to go up for the FL east coast soon.
I wouldnt assume that, the gfs and euro have struggled with the finer details of the system and in their case the finer details of 50 miles makes all the difference of hoisting hurricane watches....there is a huge difference(money) in terms of a hurricanewatch/warning vs TS. Not saying the NHC is making the decision based on money but they know the implications and they know the where the bodies are buried in the modeling


You are talking nonsense, about money? With the 0z Euro shifting west, Euro ensembles mean on top of the coast of FL, 06z GFS shifting west, the 12z TVCN will shift west and so will the track at 11 AM and so will Hurricane Watches and or Warnings for parts of the FL East Coast.


k, will see what they do at 11
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#2694 Postby Highteeld » Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:12 am

Image
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#2695 Postby GCANE » Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:14 am

Took at right and did fly over the island

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#2696 Postby DestinHurricane » Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:14 am

Models shifting west while still initializing too far north. This could go further west than some people are thinking.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#2697 Postby Highteeld » Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:15 am

Chances of hurricane watches going up somewhere along the east coast today seem to be increasing quickly

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#2698 Postby GCANE » Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:16 am

2mb drop from last recon
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#2699 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:18 am

eastcoastFL wrote:
sponger wrote:Another blow up near the center. Looks like great outflow!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv-mid

High holding strong for now.



Where exactly is the trough?


At the current time, it is well back to the west over the Mississippi River Valley extending southwest into Texas.

700 mb ridge in.place (thumb ridge) extends to about 90 degrees Longitude (Central GOM)
Last edited by northjaxpro on Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:20 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#2700 Postby Steve H. » Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:18 am

Interesting that they included lake Okeechobee in the advisory. Don't think that was in the original. That's about 40 miles west of Stuart.
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