ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[chaser1]

I am seeing a subtle short term expansion of the ridge to the east; a combination of this along with a somewhat sheared environment and mitigated inflow, would appear to bump the storm a bit more westerly then prior TVCN runs have suggested. I see surface convergence improving as the storm gains a bit more latitude however that might allow it to put back a little more "meat on it's bones". I think the storm will hold it's own but there might be the possibility of slight weakening as it approaches closer to the Florida coastline. My guess is that NHC will pull the "Warning" card for portions of the current Watch area and possibly increase the T.S. Watch to a Hurricane Watch. I think that NHC has little choice other then follow a west shift that models project, at least as a precautionary move.

[caneseddy]

Don't know if anyone mentioned but NAM (I know I know) has landfall in Palm Beach County after being offshore for the past several runs



6z NAVGEM has landfall in the Upper Keys similar to the CMC

[chris_fit]

12Z Models gonna start rolling in soon - Gonna be an important suite of runs to see if the Westward shifts coninue.

[gatorcane]

A little stronger a slightly more west on the 12Z GFS through 18 hours

[gatorcane]

[gatorcane]

36 hours, slight SW shift from 06Z:

[NDG]

Chances for a direct hit by Isaias in FL are going up with the GFS trending westward. IMO.

[gatorcane]

Landfall a little south of Melbourne?

[WeatherEmperor]

36 hours, slight SW shift from 06Z:

[img]https://i.postimg.cc/c1Xhv722/gfs-mslp-pcpn-seus-6.pn]

This looks a hair west of the 11am NHC track. Could get really bad in Palm Beach county, Gator


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[chris_fit]

GFS still trending W....

[cp79]

For anyone living in Tampa Bay, Irma and Charley are evidence of how models can change just six hours out from landfall. Both models showed those canes were supposed to hit that area the morning of landfall and both took hard unexpected right turns. Just evidence that all should still keep their guard up.

[Weatherboy1]

Well well well. GFS showing landfall around Vero or so? Looks like only 20 miles offshore now here in northern PBC Vs 80ish last night. Trend not our friend if others follow GFS

[Evil Jeremy]

If the rest of the model suite has a similar SW shift as the GFS is showing, I think that would warrant a southward extension of the Florida Hurricane Watch at 5pm.... Lets see what the rest of the suite shows.

[tolakram]

landfall this run

[tolakram]

12Z

[SouthFLTropics]

Well, the time has come to put my preps into action. Can't wait any longer. Isaias is coming and is gonna be a real close call here on the Treasure Coast. Shutters going up this afternoon. Been through this time and time again. As much of a problem this is, I'll take this over what could have been with Dorian last year.

[tolakram]

Much weaker after Florida scrape.

[tolakram]

[funster]

GFS must take it a little way inland to weaken it or it stays inland along the coast for many miles.

[tolakram]

GFS 12Z run