ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3761 Postby NDG » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:09 am

Landfall central Andros Island after a WNW jog.

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3762 Postby GCANE » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:13 am

AF306
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3763 Postby Blown Away » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:14 am

gatorcane wrote:
Frank P wrote:


That looks like a pretty good jog to the west in that radar loop as it goes over the island..


Big west jog there.


I’ve been noticing this for a few hours and waiting for the NHC or local TV Mets to acknowledge it.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3764 Postby Highteeld » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:16 am

not seeing much evidence of hurricane force winds. NHC shouldn't change it to TS though for communications reasons
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3765 Postby SFLcane » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:17 am

This could very well come very close to SFL if it stays weak like this. Watching
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3766 Postby drewschmaltz » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:18 am

Stick a fork in it. Amazing evolution. I saw a post on here earlier yesterday that pointed out the lack of dry air in the NHC's discussion. Downgraded to TS on next advisory?
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3767 Postby GCANE » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:19 am

Organizing ULL directly east at 25N 60W helping to deepen poleward outflow channel.

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3768 Postby SFLcane » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:19 am

Wow just noticed the west turn there over Andros. :eek:
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3769 Postby Kat5 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:19 am

No Hurricane winds associated with the storm according to recon...
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3770 Postby StormingB81 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:20 am

drewschmaltz wrote:Stick a fork in it. Amazing evolution. I saw a post on here earlier yesterday that pointed out the lack of dry air in the NHC's discussion. Downgraded to TS on next advisory?


I doubt he is done just yet. People said that yesterday morning as well and he came right back.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3771 Postby Blown Away » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:20 am

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis
CDO really expanding to the W & SW again.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3772 Postby DestinHurricane » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:22 am

SFLcane wrote:Wow just noticed the west turn there over Andros. :eek:


Maybe feeling the ridging to the north still?
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3773 Postby GCANE » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:24 am

A more west jog / track would impinge winds more at a right angle against the west shore of Andros and up LL convergence which in turn allows for a burst of convection to occur then.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3774 Postby GCANE » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:26 am

Blown Away wrote:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=vis
CDO really expanding to the W & SW again.


Slowly taking out the dry slot
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3775 Postby Blown Away » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:26 am

GCANE wrote:A more west jog / track would impinge winds more at a right angle against the west shore of Andros and up LL convergence which in turn allows for a burst of convection to occur then.


Yeah, you called that earlier. On radar you can see the eyewall trying to close off the SW.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3776 Postby eastcoastFL » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:26 am

drewschmaltz wrote:Stick a fork in it. Amazing evolution. I saw a post on here earlier yesterday that pointed out the lack of dry air in the NHC's discussion. Downgraded to TS on next advisory?


I’d hold the fork until after he clears andros
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3777 Postby SFLcane » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:26 am

@tropicaltidbits

#Isaias beginning to struggle more with shear and dry air this morning, with the core becoming more ragged. Data from recon planes indicates slight weakening occurring.

The track is slightly left of yesterday's expectation, over Andros Island, increasing odds of #Florida impacts.


https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/sta ... 25792?s=21
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3778 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:26 am

The worse of the effects will be felt here across Northeast Florida coast beginning late Sunday iinto Sunday night/early Monday morning. We will see winds to TS force at times inland from the coast, but gusts at the beach wil lbe stronger.

But my big worry is tbe storm surge as the storm moving up the coast will have a prolonged onshore flow for about 18-24hours beginning tomorrow morning. Forecast is 2-4 feet above flood stage right now. We will of course be monitoring the Intracoastal Waterway, and especially the Saint Johns River as the storms moves up the coast tomorrow.

Also, Isaias will be arriving here off the Northeast Florida by tomorrow evening, which would be at the time of high tide at the beaches, which could really compound potential flood issues from storm surge.

Be careful out there everyone. I an not going to be getting much sleep this weekend that's for sure.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:35 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3779 Postby Do_For_Love » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:26 am

What is "Miss Piggy" lol?
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3780 Postby GCANE » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:27 am

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