ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

Has this moved at all?

[wx98]

Getting more definitive circulation.
These mesovorts keep popping up.
The ramp up in outflow will help gel this.
I would guess the anticyclone is slightly north.

https://i.imgur.com/YPH8r9j.png

That’s the blown away mid-level circulation. It’s not getting more definitive while it’s leaving the LLC behind near Bimini.

[wx98]

Has this moved at all?

LLC hasn’t moved in a few hours now...

[GCANE]

Pressure must be dropping, feed appears to be intensifying.

[TallyTracker]

I see a pulsing Tropical Storm. I don’t think it will become a hurricane again until it moves more with the shear along the Gulf Stream. Isaias will struggle to even maintain intensity as long as it can’t maintain steady convection over the LLC and keep the LLC aligned with the MLC.

[Hurricaneman]

I’m wondering if this might be starting a relocation in the convection near the MLC or it could just be too much watching radar

[wx98]

Pressure must be dropping, feed appears to be intensifying.

https://i.imgur.com/dK6otbW.png

That is nowhere near the LLC that the planes have been flying through. Pressure is steady or slightly rising there.

[GCANE]

Getting more definitive circulation.
These mesovorts keep popping up.
The ramp up in outflow will help gel this.
I would guess the anticyclone is slightly north.

https://i.imgur.com/YPH8r9j.png

That’s the blown away mid-level circulation. It’s not getting more definitive while it’s leaving the LLC behind near Bimini.

High helicity towers tend to push MLCs to the surface due to conservation of angular momentum.
That is what those mesovorts are doing.

[boca]

Hasn’t rained, haven’t heard wind and I’m in Coconut Creek right off the turnpike.


Then again I’m inside so..

I’m in the township we are neighbors.

[tropicwatch]

HH's keeping busy, another AF mission took off from Keesler.

[wx98]

I’m wondering if this might be starting a relocation in the convection near the MLC or it could just be too much watching radar

I’m sure it is possible. That could explain the current LLC stalling and pressure rising. The next recon plane needs to fly toward to MLC to see what it can find. However, if you trust the HRRR then another blowup (and another MLC) will form over the current LLC later tonight. As was said earlier, this is a mess...

[wx98]

Getting more definitive circulation.
These mesovorts keep popping up.
The ramp up in outflow will help gel this.
I would guess the anticyclone is slightly north.

https://i.imgur.com/YPH8r9j.png

That’s the blown away mid-level circulation. It’s not getting more definitive while it’s leaving the LLC behind near Bimini.

High helicity towers tend to push MLCs to the surface due to conservation of angular momentum.
That is what those mesovorts are doing.

If that does happen and the LLC reforms over there, the chances of a FL landfall go way down in my opinion.

[CronkPSU]

NHC nudges track slightly west with landfall (I think)...as a hurricane

update...yep barely on the coast

24H 03/0000Z 28.0N 80.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...ON COAST

[tropicwatch]

NHC still calling it NW at 9mph.

[GCANE]

That’s the blown away mid-level circulation. It’s not getting more definitive while it’s leaving the LLC behind near Bimini.

High helicity towers tend to push MLCs to the surface due to conservation of angular momentum.
That is what those mesovorts are doing.

If that does happen and the LLC reforms over there, the chances of a FL landfall go way down in my opinion.

Yup, agree.
Need to see how this plays out.

[Ken711]

11:00 PM NHC Discussion:

The new NHC track forecast was nudged slightly closer to the Florida east-central coast through 24 hours, with no significant changes made to the previous forecast after 36 hours.

[Hurricaneman]

Getting more definitive circulation.
These mesovorts keep popping up.
The ramp up in outflow will help gel this.
I would guess the anticyclone is slightly north.

https://i.imgur.com/YPH8r9j.png

That’s the blown away mid-level circulation. It’s not getting more definitive while it’s leaving the LLC behind near Bimini.

High helicity towers tend to push MLCs to the surface due to conservation of angular momentum.
That is what those mesovorts are doing.

I’m wondering if that’s what the 0zHMON was picking up last night having this over Freeport while every other model was with the current circulation which could reform in the convection

[CronkPSU]

11:00 PM NHC Discussion:

The new NHC track forecast was nudged slightly closer to the Florida east-central coast through 24 hours, with no significant changes made to the previous forecast after 36 hours.

24H 03/0000Z 28.0N 80.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...ON COAST

[HurricaneFrances04]

Complex situation. The last recon flight did show a small pressure drop when flying over that mid level center.

[wx98]

High helicity towers tend to push MLCs to the surface due to conservation of angular momentum.
That is what those mesovorts are doing.

If that does happen and the LLC reforms over there, the chances of a FL landfall go way down in my opinion.

Yup, agree.
Need to see how this plays out.

In the disco, Pasch seems to imply that they don’t know for sure at this point whether the LLC or the MLC is the dominant circulation. They went with LLC for position. But they said it is moving, which may be the case, but then why did the AF plane just do 5-6 Center drops all in the same place?