2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[TheHurricaneGod]

Yikes.

[cheezyWXguy]

We're already on a record four year streak of category five hurricane occurrences, and remarkably also a record streak of three straight years with category five landfalls; if any season has the potential to continue at least one of those dubious streaks, this one has the looks of it

This year feels like a culmination of a very active phase
that started in 2016. Which is why all signs point to hyperactivity.

Is 4 years in a row with a cat 5 really a record though? I never knew that, and it feels like it must have occurred before, but then again I can’t recall a 4 year cat5 streak in the past off the top of my head. Man, hurricane season is weird...

[AnnularCane]

Yikes.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eeme8v3XYAU0_wJ?format=png&name=large

What is that?

[aspen]

Yikes.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eeme8v3XYAU0_wJ?format=png&name=large

Suppression over much of the Pacific and enhanced convection over much of the Atlantic, coupled with the standing wave over Africa and the suppressive CCKW leaving...I sense the lid coming off in mid-August.

[supercane4867]

We're already on a record four year streak of category five hurricane occurrences, and remarkably also a record streak of three straight years with category five landfalls; if any season has the potential to continue at least one of those dubious streaks, this one has the looks of it

This year feels like a culmination of a very active phase
that started in 2016. Which is why all signs point to hyperactivity.

Is 4 years in a row with a cat 5 really a record though? I never knew that, and it feels like it must have occurred before, but then again I can’t recall a 4 year cat5 streak in the past off the top of my head. Man, hurricane season is weird...

There are only 36 official CAT5s since the record begin. However due to changes of observation and assessment techniques over the years, such record is really not that meaningful.

Storms like Matthew would not be assessed as CAT5 over a decade ago when SFMR was not widely used. Probably won't be a CAT5 this year either since they later found SFMR numbers can be easily inflated in these intense systems(Irma was downgraded from 160kt to 155kt because of that).

[Ubuntwo]

This year feels like a culmination of a very active phase
that started in 2016. Which is why all signs point to hyperactivity.

Is 4 years in a row with a cat 5 really a record though? I never knew that, and it feels like it must have occurred before, but then again I can’t recall a 4 year cat5 streak in the past off the top of my head. Man, hurricane season is weird...

There are only 36 official CAT5s since the record begin. However due to changes of observation and assessment techniques over the years, such record is really not that meaningful.

Storms like Matthew would not be assessed as CAT5 over a decade ago when SFMR was not widely used. Probably won't be a CAT5 this year either since they later found SFMR numbers can be easily inflated in these intense systems(Irma was downgraded from 160kt to 155kt because of that).

Irma, Maria, Dorian, and Michael would all have likely been classed as category 5 hurricanes per the standard applied to Emily + without SFMR. Matthew and Lorenzo, almost certainly not IMO.

[USTropics]

This year feels like a culmination of a very active phase
that started in 2016. Which is why all signs point to hyperactivity.

Is 4 years in a row with a cat 5 really a record though? I never knew that, and it feels like it must have occurred before, but then again I can’t recall a 4 year cat5 streak in the past off the top of my head. Man, hurricane season is weird...

There are only 36 official CAT5s since the record begin. However due to changes of observation and assessment techniques over the years, such record is really not that meaningful.

Storms like Matthew would not be assessed as CAT5 over a decade ago when SFMR was not widely used. Probably won't be a CAT5 this year either since they later found SFMR numbers can be easily inflated in these intense systems(Irma was downgraded from 160kt to 155kt because of that).

There has only been one streak of 3 straight years of recorded Cat5 hurricanes (2003, 2004, 2005 - not including the current 4 straight years we're currently on). There have been multiple 3/4 years, with some close cases. 2006 was void of a Cat5 hurricane, otherwise 2003-2007 would have recorded Cat5 hurricanes.


1932 ("Camaguey"), 1933 ("Cuba-Brownsville"), and 1935 ("Labor Day") had recorded Cat5s. 1934 did not (highest record was cat3).
1977 (Anita),1979 (David), 1980 (Allen) had recorded Cat5s. 1978 did not (Ella and Greta were both recorded as Cat4 hurricanes).
2003 (Isabel), 2004 (Ivan), 2005 (Emily/Katrina/Rita/WIlma), 2007 (Dean/Felix) had recorded Cat5s. 2006 did not (highest recorded was cat3).
2016 (Matthew), 2017 (Irma/Maria), 2018 (Michael), 2019 (Dorian/Lorenzo) is the only recorded streak of 4 consecutive years of Cat5 hurricanes.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The MJO has been in phases 1,2 or 3 all summer long. Those are also the positive phases for the Atlantic Basin. It's currently in 4 which isnt very favorable, but it is taking a shortcut through the center to go back to phase 1...The JMA has it backtrack to 3...everything seems to indicate 2 weeks of calm before they start popping.

[Steve]

You have to be impressed with how much of the Eastern US has been impacted by the 2020 Atlantic Season this early. Most states from Texas northeastward (I counted 25 plus Washington D.C.) have experienced at least tropical storm conditions. The only ones I'm not sure are Minnesota (Cristobal ?), West Virginia (Isaias?), Michigan, Tennessee, Ohio, Kentucky and Indiana.

It's hard to derive any hints from the landfalls or the movements of some of these early season systems except to infer that many or all of us near the coast and in the interior southeast and east might be at risk in similar patterns. We haven't ever been this active, so we don't really know if the wide open/across the board early season landfalls will translate into the late summer and fall. Maybe we were just unlucky in the early season and patterns will evolve and balance out later in the season. Maybe tracks will coalesce around certain areas that will take repeated hits. Maybe many or even every state that has already experienced TS conditions will experience them again. There are a lot of questions yet to be answered about potential landfall areas as the season gets stronger.

I feel like it's a reasonable assumption to guess that there will be 8-10 hurricanes to come between mid-late August and Halloween (12 1/2 weeks). I think it's also safe to assume that the US will be hit again this year, but we will have to wait for the details.

[NDG]

Yikes.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eeme8v3XYAU0_wJ?format=png&name=large

In another words we have about a week to relax and catch up on some sleep before all hell gets loose over in the Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1290847084594098176

[HurricaneEdouard]

Is 4 years in a row with a cat 5 really a record though? I never knew that, and it feels like it must have occurred before, but then again I can’t recall a 4 year cat5 streak in the past off the top of my head. Man, hurricane season is weird...

There are only 36 official CAT5s since the record begin. However due to changes of observation and assessment techniques over the years, such record is really not that meaningful.

Storms like Matthew would not be assessed as CAT5 over a decade ago when SFMR was not widely used. Probably won't be a CAT5 this year either since they later found SFMR numbers can be easily inflated in these intense systems(Irma was downgraded from 160kt to 155kt because of that).

There has only been one streak of 3 straight years of recorded Cat5 hurricanes (2003, 2004, 2005 - not including the current 4 straight years we're currently on). There have been multiple 3/4 years, with some close cases. 2006 was void of a Cat5 hurricane, otherwise 2003-2007 would have recorded Cat5 hurricanes.


1932 ("Camaguey"), 1933 ("Cuba-Brownsville"), and 1935 ("Labor Day") had recorded Cat5s. 1934 did not (highest record was cat3).
1977 (Anita),1979 (David), 1980 (Allen) had recorded Cat5s. 1978 did not (Ella and Greta were both recorded as Cat4 hurricanes).
2003 (Isabel), 2004 (Ivan), 2005 (Emily/Katrina/Rita/WIlma), 2007 (Dean/Felix) had recorded Cat5s. 2006 did not (highest recorded was cat3).
2016 (Matthew), 2017 (Irma/Maria), 2018 (Michael), 2019 (Dorian/Lorenzo) is the only recorded streak of 4 consecutive years of Cat5 hurricanes.

1932 and 1933 were back-to-back years with multiple Category 5s each season, as well; 1932 had San Ciprián and Camaguey, 1933 had Cuba-Brownsville and Great Tampico. This is something we haven't had in the recent AMO+ phase (yet, anyway; I wouldn't be surprised if 2020 gave us multiple Category 5s).

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1290991057115787265

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1290980621997621250

[SFLcane]

http://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1290991057115787265?s=21

Very dangerous for the east coast if it holds.

[cycloneye]

The only thing I am going to say is this video from Mark Sudduth is omminous.

https://www.facebook.com/HurricaneTrack ... 7475455036

[AxaltaRacing24]

http://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1290991057115787265?s=21

Very dangerous for the east coast if it holds.

this season's outlook is more ominous that 2017's.

hopefully it's only the outlook that stays that way, but i'm not too sure.

[gatorcane]

The only thing I am going to say is this video from Mark Sudduth is omminous.

https://www.facebook.com/HurricaneTrack ... 7475455036

Watched it and ominous indeed

[Hurricaneman]

The only thing I am going to say is this video from Mark Sudduth is omminous.

https://www.facebook.com/HurricaneTrack ... 7475455036

Watched it and ominous indeed

Some of the maps are some of the most dangerous since 2017 and 2005, I feel like this year could be a hybrid of the 2

[toad strangler]

The only thing I am going to say is this video from Mark Sudduth is omminous.

https://www.facebook.com/HurricaneTrack ... 7475455036

Egads, who knows what will actually happen but I GUARANTEE you we won't see pre season signals this provocative again for quite some time. It's been a steady uninterrupted drumbeat since the WINTER.