2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro pretty much is about to slam our vort into SA at 240hrs. Back to the drawing board.

A deeper vort is very possible by the time it's in the Caribbean and that could mean a track further north. Just have to wait and see.

[Cpv17]

12z Euro pretty much is about to slam our vort into SA at 240hrs. Back to the drawing board.

Wait for the eps.

[Fancy1001]

yep 12z GFS dropped the SW Caribbean development. No surprise being 10 plus days out.

What are you talking about, it's still there.

Not at the 240 hourISH mark it had moved to in previous runs. LOL at what happens post 300 hours

You didn't mention the 240 mark, you just said that the 12z GFS dropped it, which it did not.

[toad strangler]

12z Euro pretty much is about to slam our vort into SA at 240hrs. Back to the drawing board.

A deeper vort is very possible by the time it's in the Caribbean and that could mean a track further north. Just have to wait and see.

yep, commenting on verbatim output. GFS doesn't have the AEW vort that the Euro shows. GFS vort rolls off of South America which i'm inclined to right off as the GFS has done this many times before with far S Caribbean phantoms.

[Cpv17]

12z Euro pretty much is about to slam our vort into SA at 240hrs. Back to the drawing board.

A deeper vort is very possible by the time it's in the Caribbean and that could mean a track further north. Just have to wait and see.

yep, commenting on verbatim output. GFS doesn't have the AEW vort that the Euro shows. GFS vort rolls off of South America which i'm inclined to right off as the GFS has done this many times before with far S Caribbean phantoms.

It appears to me that the wave would run into SA but combine with the monsoonal trough giving the trough more energy to work with and eventually consolidate and push north.

[GeneratorPower]

Slamming into SA is unlikely. That just happens very rarely.

[Steve]

LOL GFS @ 384 with the 961 system heading northwest in the central Gulf. That's valid August 21st, so even though none of us believe the GFS that far out, that's what it's saying for Day 16. That's a system that would landfall west of here - Texas or SW LA. Big potential in that part of the Gulf in late August IMHO. Hopefully it's wrong as can be as that's probably headed for major territory.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

LOL GFS @ 384 with the 961 system heading northwest in the central Gulf. That's valid August 21st, so even though none of us believe the GFS that far out, that's what it's saying for Day 16. That's a system that would landfall west of here - Texas or SW LA. Big potential in that part of the Gulf in late August IMHO. Hopefully it's wrong as can be as that's probably headed for major territory.

https://i.imgur.com/2E7iNlV.png

While its usual to take these runs with a grain of salt, im not so sure i wanna do that with this run. Anything after August 20th is absolutely plausible at this point. The name Josephine just isnt sitting right with me.

[supercane4867]

Happy hour GFS never fails to impress

 https://twitter.com/thezodiac13/status/1291151214005096448

[Kingarabian]

Models been priming up the Caribbean all season long. While the GFS I hope is not correct, for those of us who have 2005 and 2017 as analogs, unfortunately this would not be surprising.

[Cpv17]

The western Caribbean is locked and loaded. There isn’t a spot out there in the whole basin that’s as prime as that area is.

[AxaltaRacing24]

the gfs might be in fantasy land, but i would not be surprised in the slightest if a storm down there becomes a major within the next 4 weeks.

[toad strangler]

18z GFS ensembles are all EPac weighted in this far flung fantasy range. That could be climo bias but It's just too far out. I thought maybe the GFS was on to something when it was stepping up in time for a small handful of runs. Such are the perils of long range.

[cheezyWXguy]

18z GFS ensembles are all EPac weighted in this far flung fantasy range. That could be climo bias but It's just too far out. I thought maybe the GFS was on to something when it was stepping up in time for a small handful of runs. Such are the perils of long range.

It doesn’t really seem to be pushing back that much though. On a very broad level, the bottom line is largely the same. Somewhere between 9 and 11 days out an area of westward moving vorticity interacts with the cag and produces a storm. There really isn’t a way to tell if this is credible or not, but if it was, I would still fully expect it to be jumping around on timeframe this far out, in addition to the expected variations in track and intensity before gradually honing in as the event approaches. I’m skeptical to outright dismiss this as simply the gfs’ cag bias.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

The thing about the GFS' scenario of a CAG-like setup is that historically, climatology does not support such an event. Central American Gyres are almost exclusively an early-season and late-season phenomenon. August is a month where any truly barotropic cyclogenesis originates from tropical waves. So I really do have my doubts about this - I'd chalk it up to the GFS' classic bias with overamplifying the MJO in phase 8/1 more than anything, outside of the fact that this is in the 300+ hour range and therefore should be taken with a grain of salt by default.



Image source

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[stormlover2013]

The thing about the GFS' scenario of a CAG-like setup is that historically, climatology does not support such an event. Central American Gyres are almost exclusively an early-season and late-season phenomenon. August is a month where any truly barotropic cyclogenesis originates from tropical waves. So I really do have my doubts about this - I'd chalk it up to the GFS' classic bias with overamplifying the MJO in phase 8/1 more than anything, outside of the fact that this is in the 300+ hour range and therefore should be taken with a grain of salt by default.

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Philippe_Papin/publication/314275039/figure/fig2/AS:497895385776128@1495718918939/a-Monthly-CAG-genesis-frequency-1980-2010-where-red-and-blue-colors-represent-the.png

Image source

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It’s 2020 anything can happen

[St0rmTh0r]

Well its August 2020 if the Atlantic hurricane season and this season is racing to the record books this whole year in general. I think it's safe to say there are going to be some big storms in the near future that threatens land again. We all know that regardless of what models say.

[WeatherHoon]

The thing about the GFS' scenario of a CAG-like setup is that historically, climatology does not support such an event. Central American Gyres are almost exclusively an early-season and late-season phenomenon. August is a month where any truly barotropic cyclogenesis originates from tropical waves. So I really do have my doubts about this - I'd chalk it up to the GFS' classic bias with overamplifying the MJO in phase 8/1 more than anything, outside of the fact that this is in the 300+ hour range and therefore should be taken with a grain of salt by default.

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Philippe_Papin/publication/314275039/figure/fig2/AS:497895385776128@1495718918939/a-Monthly-CAG-genesis-frequency-1980-2010-where-red-and-blue-colors-represent-the.png

Image source

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The CAG part seems suspect, but do you think maybe it's cluing in on potential positive conditions for development when the wave arrives in that vicinity?

[SconnieCane]

Happy hour GFS never fails to impress

https://twitter.com/thezodiac13/status/1291151214005096448?s=21

Wilma, is that you?

[toad strangler]

Happy hour GFS never fails to impress

https://twitter.com/thezodiac13/status/1291151214005096448?s=21

Wilma, is that you?

Probably two months plus premature for a Wilma 2.0 track