toad strangler wrote:12z Euro pretty much is about to slam our vort into SA at 240hrs. Back to the drawing board.
A deeper vort is very possible by the time it's in the Caribbean and that could mean a track further north. Just have to wait and see.
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toad strangler wrote:12z Euro pretty much is about to slam our vort into SA at 240hrs. Back to the drawing board.
toad strangler wrote:12z Euro pretty much is about to slam our vort into SA at 240hrs. Back to the drawing board.
toad strangler wrote:Fancy1001 wrote:toad strangler wrote:yep 12z GFS dropped the SW Caribbean development. No surprise being 10 plus days out.
What are you talking about, it's still there.
Not at the 240 hourISH mark it had moved to in previous runs. LOL at what happens post 300 hours
Kingarabian wrote:toad strangler wrote:12z Euro pretty much is about to slam our vort into SA at 240hrs. Back to the drawing board.
A deeper vort is very possible by the time it's in the Caribbean and that could mean a track further north. Just have to wait and see.
toad strangler wrote:Kingarabian wrote:toad strangler wrote:12z Euro pretty much is about to slam our vort into SA at 240hrs. Back to the drawing board.
A deeper vort is very possible by the time it's in the Caribbean and that could mean a track further north. Just have to wait and see.
yep, commenting on verbatim output. GFS doesn't have the AEW vort that the Euro shows. GFS vort rolls off of South America which i'm inclined to right off as the GFS has done this many times before with far S Caribbean phantoms.
Steve wrote:LOL GFS @ 384 with the 961 system heading northwest in the central Gulf. That's valid August 21st, so even though none of us believe the GFS that far out, that's what it's saying for Day 16. That's a system that would landfall west of here - Texas or SW LA. Big potential in that part of the Gulf in late August IMHO. Hopefully it's wrong as can be as that's probably headed for major territory.
https://i.imgur.com/2E7iNlV.png
toad strangler wrote:18z GFS ensembles are all EPac weighted in this far flung fantasy range. That could be climo bias but It's just too far out. I thought maybe the GFS was on to something when it was stepping up in time for a small handful of runs. Such are the perils of long range.
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:The thing about the GFS' scenario of a CAG-like setup is that historically, climatology does not support such an event. Central American Gyres are almost exclusively an early-season and late-season phenomenon. August is a month where any truly barotropic cyclogenesis originates from tropical waves. So I really do have my doubts about this - I'd chalk it up to the GFS' classic bias with overamplifying the MJO in phase 8/1 more than anything, outside of the fact that this is in the 300+ hour range and therefore should be taken with a grain of salt by default.
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Philippe_Papin/publication/314275039/figure/fig2/AS:497895385776128@1495718918939/a-Monthly-CAG-genesis-frequency-1980-2010-where-red-and-blue-colors-represent-the.png
Image source
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DorkyMcDorkface wrote:The thing about the GFS' scenario of a CAG-like setup is that historically, climatology does not support such an event. Central American Gyres are almost exclusively an early-season and late-season phenomenon. August is a month where any truly barotropic cyclogenesis originates from tropical waves. So I really do have my doubts about this - I'd chalk it up to the GFS' classic bias with overamplifying the MJO in phase 8/1 more than anything, outside of the fact that this is in the 300+ hour range and therefore should be taken with a grain of salt by default.
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Philippe_Papin/publication/314275039/figure/fig2/AS:497895385776128@1495718918939/a-Monthly-CAG-genesis-frequency-1980-2010-where-red-and-blue-colors-represent-the.png
Image source
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supercane4867 wrote:Happy hour GFS never fails to impress
https://twitter.com/thezodiac13/status/1291151214005096448?s=21
SconnieCane wrote:supercane4867 wrote:Happy hour GFS never fails to impress
https://twitter.com/thezodiac13/status/1291151214005096448?s=21
Wilma, is that you?
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