2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[Hammy]

Here is the NMME for September in 2017. Shows dry SW Atlantic also so can’t really use this as general tracks. Guess Irma didn’t go through there lol.

https://iili.io/dEB5pj.png

Are those more indicative of where (and how many) storms will form rather than where they'll go after?

[cycloneye]

There is even more to again do this?

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1291895856749252610

[TheStormExpert]

Here is the NMME for September in 2017. Shows dry SW Atlantic also so can’t really use this as general tracks. Guess Irma didn’t go through there lol.

https://iili.io/dEB5pj.png

Are those more indicative of where (and how many) storms will form rather than where they'll go after?

No it does not show how many storms will form but it can be an indicator of where a storm(s) may track. In this case tracks into the Caribbean and into CA or Mexico or north into the GoM seem likely thanks to an abnormally very strong Bermuda High. Not saying Florida is off the hook but just going off that I would bet on more threats from the SW as opposed to the SE.

[SFLcane]

There is even more to again do this?

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1291895856749252610

Hi Luis, for now it Doesn't matter if the Atlantic is dry. We'll see when that changes.

[toad strangler]

There is even more to again do this?

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1291895856749252610

That is amazing! Not sure what it actually means for Cabo Verde season and the strength or frequency of AEW's going forward though.

[TheStormExpert]

There is even more to again do this?

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1291895856749252610

It seems that every time a tropical wave moves off the west coast of Africa more Saharan Air gets pulled off as well, is this normally the case?

[toad strangler]

There is even more to again do this?

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1291895856749252610

It seems that every time a tropical wave moves off the west coast of Africa more Saharan Air gets pulled off as well, is this normally the case?

I don't know how many times it can be stated for this to sink in. YES. All the way through mid August it's expected. If this was still happening in VERY LATE August and snuffing out AEW's then there may be an anomalous situation happening.

[SFLcane]

There is even more to again do this?

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1291895856749252610

It seems that every time a tropical wave moves off the west coast of Africa more Saharan Air gets pulled off as well, is this normally the case?

I don't know how many times it can be stated for this to sink in. YES. All the way through mid August it's expected. If this was still happening in VERY LATE August and snuffing out AEW's then there may be an anomalous situation happening.

This should be pinned on the top of this thread.

[St0rmTh0r]

There is even more to again do this?

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1291895856749252610

That is amazing! Not sure what it actually means for Cabo Verde season and the strength or frequency of AEW's going forward though.

It means more thunderstorms which means more tropical waves which means lots hurricanes come peak season

[St0rmTh0r]

It seems that every time a tropical wave moves off the west coast of Africa more Saharan Air gets pulled off as well, is this normally the case?

I don't know how many times it can be stated for this to sink in. YES. All the way through mid August it's expected. If this was still happening in VERY LATE August and snuffing out AEW's then there may be an anomalous situation happening.

This should be pinned on the top of this thread.

1+1=2

[TheStormExpert]

There is even more to again do this?

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1291895856749252610

It seems that every time a tropical wave moves off the west coast of Africa more Saharan Air gets pulled off as well, is this normally the case?

I don't know how many times it can be stated for this to sink in. YES. All the way through mid August it's expected. If this was still happening in VERY LATE August and snuffing out AEW's then there may be an anomalous situation happening.

I was just asking cause I never really noticed that being the case.

[gatorcane]

I am wondering if the warmer than normal waters north of the equator and south of Mexico is part of the reason we are seeing an uptick in EPAC activity. Will need to watch this area as it it could cause a bit more EPAC activity / convection / rising air which in turn could induce some more shear across the Caribbean and Gulf at times despite the lack of an El Niño. 2010 didn’t have such a warm pool. 2005 did but not quite as extensive:

[cycloneye]

All on one tweet.You will not have another season more favorable than 2020 for many years.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1291906670055043072

[TheStormExpert]

I am wondering if the warmer than normal waters north of the equator and south of Mexico is part of the reason we are seeing an uptick in EPAC activity. Will need to watch this area as it it could cause a bit more EPAC activity / convection / rising air which in turn could induce some more shear across the Caribbean and Gulf at times despite the lack of an El Niño. 2010 didn’t have such a warm pool. 2005 did but not quite as extensive:

https://i.postimg.cc/g27DBBGt/ssta-daily-current.png

This season is likely to go off in a few weeks time. If I were you I’d be preparing just in case. Yes, we may get lucky but with such high numbers being forecasted I’d rather be safe than sorry.

[StruThiO]

All indicators tell me that all hell is going to break loose once the bell is rung on the 20th.

[TheStormExpert]

Just some added discussion to the tweet Cycloneye posted.

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1291912266389094400




 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1291914963498532864

[SFLcane]

If mid Aug approaches and the MJO is here and dry air is still around then it's going to be a problem.

[AxaltaRacing24]

If mid Aug approaches and the MJO is here and dry air is still around then it's going to be a problem.

possibly, but people tried cancelling 2017 in late august over the same thing.

then the dry air vanished shortly after august 20th.

[toad strangler]

If mid Aug approaches and the MJO is here and dry air is still around then it's going to be a problem.

possibly, but people tried cancelling 2017 in late august over the same thing.

then the dry air vanished shortly after august 20th.

Like the flip of a switch.

[869MB]

Analyzing some of these indicators being presented for the past month feels akin to the countdown of the hours after midnight where the SPC has just issued a High Risk for the Day 1 Convective Outlook where a large multi-state severe weather & tornado outbreak is forecasted with a high chance of numerous, widespread long-tracked strong and violent tornadoes. After the SPC issues that Day 1 outlook you know nothing is never set in stone and unseen weather parameters may occur where their forecast may bust. But as the hours count down to the early afternoon, all of the necessary severe weather ingredients appear to come together in order to fuel the outbreak as originally forecasted.

That’s where I feel we are now with respect to this 2020 hurricane season, in those early morning hours of a possible significant severe weather/tornado outbreak. Yeah there are possible unseen weather parameters that may occur which could limit or prevent an outbreak, but it appears to be increasingly unlikely as each hour passes.