2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[SFLcane]

There's not gonna be a long track TC in the next 10 days so that trough doesn't matter.

[TheStormExpert]

2004, or 2010 people make up your minds!!

Besides none of this matters anyways for now as there looks to be nothing immediate threatening to develop for the next week or two. Of course that could always change but I’m beginning to think we only end up with 2-3 named storms at most this month, MAYBE one of them a hurricane.

After the record breaking start in May, June, and July in terms of named storm pace I think August will likely underperform in a sense in my opinion as the East Pacific continues to steal the show for now. Let’s see how well this ages in 10 days and we’ll go from there!

[TheStormExpert]

I notice the models are trying to dig an anomalously strong trough into the eastern CONUS in 8-10 days. Check out the GFS temp anomalies albeit in the long-range and probably too cold. Indicator fall may start earlier than normal this year ushering in the westerlies or no indicator at all? Looks like 40s and 50s for the Midwest and even colder in southern Canada:

https://i.postimg.cc/nzMvJtFb/gfs-T2ma-us-37.png

That may not be a good thing to be honest.

Why not? Please explain more.

[NDG]

I notice the models are trying to dig an anomalously strong trough into the eastern CONUS in 8-10 days. Check out the GFS temp anomalies albeit in the long-range and probably too cold. Indicator fall may start earlier than normal this year ushering in the westerlies or no indicator at all? Looks like 40s and 50s for the Midwest and even colder in southern Canada:

https://i.postimg.cc/nzMvJtFb/gfs-T2ma-us-37.png

Nothing beats the big trough of mid August 2004 but as you know ridging across the NE US and SE Canada remained strong through early October, the same way long range forecasts and experts are calling for, no signs of a west Atlantic based -NAO coming any time soon.

[AutoPenalti]

I notice the models are trying to dig an anomalously strong trough into the eastern CONUS in 8-10 days. Check out the GFS temp anomalies albeit in the long-range and probably too cold. Indicator fall may start earlier than normal this year ushering in the westerlies or no indicator at all? Looks like 40s and 50s for the Midwest and even colder in southern Canada:

https://i.postimg.cc/nzMvJtFb/gfs-T2ma-us-37.png

That may not be a good thing to be honest.

Why not? Please explain more.

From what I know, dependent on the strength of the trough, if it becomes negatively tilted, acts as a magnet for developed cyclones.

[Steve]

I notice the models are trying to dig an anomalously strong trough into the eastern CONUS in 8-10 days. Check out the GFS temp anomalies albeit in the long-range and probably too cold. Indicator fall may start earlier than normal this year ushering in the westerlies or no indicator at all? Looks like 40s and 50s for the Midwest and even colder in southern Canada:

https://i.postimg.cc/nzMvJtFb/gfs-T2ma-us-37.png

That may not be a good thing to be honest.

Why not? Please explain more.

Amplification
High pressure to the north and NE as troughs lift out
Time of Year
Fronts start coming down = storms start coming up

An old poster I won't name from CFHC busted that idea out in 2004 and 2005. I'm sure I won't have to tell you or anyone else how those years went. Eventually it becomes the fall - probably late October or early November and the westerlies do take over for good.

[EquusStorm]

I remember that 2004 trough very fondly, the nicest August weather here I've ever experienced Not especially good to have any 2004 parallels on modeling though, considering, y'know, that entire season

[SFLcane]

I notice the models are trying to dig an anomalously strong trough into the eastern CONUS in 8-10 days. Check out the GFS temp anomalies albeit in the long-range and probably too cold. Indicator fall may start earlier than normal this year ushering in the westerlies or no indicator at all? Looks like 40s and 50s for the Midwest and even colder in southern Canada:

https://i.postimg.cc/nzMvJtFb/gfs-T2ma-us-37.png

Nothing beats the big trough of mid August 2004 but as you know ridging across the NE US and SE Canada remained strong through early October, the same way long range forecasts and experts are calling for, no signs of a west Atlantic based -NAO coming any time soon.

https://i.imgur.com/r73ioRh.gif

Great post!

[eastcoastFL]

This is kinda interesting and scary. The US coast Line primed for potential sub 900mb storms given the ideal upper level conditions

[USTropics]

I'd be watching the western Atlantic starting August 20th. The signals are beginning to appear.

00z GFS-Para ensembles:


00z CMC ensembles:


Past 3 runs of CFS:


VP anomalies for that time period:

[NDG]

I notice the models are trying to dig an anomalously strong trough into the eastern CONUS in 8-10 days. Check out the GFS temp anomalies albeit in the long-range and probably too cold. Indicator fall may start earlier than normal this year ushering in the westerlies or no indicator at all? Looks like 40s and 50s for the Midwest and even colder in southern Canada:

https://i.postimg.cc/nzMvJtFb/gfs-T2ma-us-37.png

2010 pattern if it persists. Looks like it cuts off on the Euro

During 2010 the troughs that came down to the eastern US kept progressing eastward towards the NW Atlantic, there was really no ridging east of the mid Atlantic and NE US the reason there were so many OTS tracks.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1293152448413081600

[SFLcane]

I notice the models are trying to dig an anomalously strong trough into the eastern CONUS in 8-10 days. Check out the GFS temp anomalies albeit in the long-range and probably too cold. Indicator fall may start earlier than normal this year ushering in the westerlies or no indicator at all? Looks like 40s and 50s for the Midwest and even colder in southern Canada:

https://i.postimg.cc/nzMvJtFb/gfs-T2ma-us-37.png

2010 pattern if it persists. Looks like it cuts off on the Euro

During 2010 the troughs that came down to the eastern US kept progressing eastward towards the NW Atlantic, there was really no ridging east of the mid Atlantic and NE US the reason there were so many OTS tracks.

A trough next week doesn't mean permanent troughing.Really just have to watch the pattern

[tolakram]

Every thread I visit has a hyperactive discussion of hyperactivity!

I expect 95L to struggle, which will lead to more of those folks who can only see a couple of days at a time to once again declare this season to be dead. You know it if I'm talking about you! Longer term conditions are very favorable, which means, in my opinion, that when short term conditions improve (less shear mainly) we will see outbreaks of 2, three, and four storms at a time.

[cycloneye]

Those who like to track storms and hurricanes have patience as they will eventually form. Is only August 11.

[EquusStorm]

Imagine if we had forums in 1984 when the first named storm (after an unnamed STS the week prior) didn't develop until August 28 lol. There would be pandemonium

[CyclonicFury]

The fact is, when you have much warmer than normal SSTs in the MDR, well below normal shear in the MDR/Caribbean during July, a strong west African Monsoon, you usually get an intense season. I have said this many times but early season weak storms do not mean peak season storms will be weak as well. EqqusStorm had a great comparison a few weeks back...predicting a weak season based on early-season weak storms is like getting snow flurries in November when it usually doesn't snow at all and expecting only snow flurries in January

[AnnularCane]

Those who like to track storms and hurricanes have patience as they will eventually form. Is only August 11.

There is something about the first half of August that seems to try everyone's patience.

[TheStormExpert]

Those who like to track storms and hurricanes have patience as they will eventually form. Is only August 11.

https://i.imgur.com/kzVXARW.jpg

I understand it’s only August 11th but something just seems off to me and I really don’t know what it is?

[mcheer23]

Those who like to track storms and hurricanes have patience as they will eventually form. Is only August 11.

https://i.imgur.com/kzVXARW.jpg

I understand it’s only August 11th but something just seems off to me and I really don’t know what it is?

I have the same feeling.