ATL: JOSEPHINE - Remnants - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

Levi Cowan's thoughts.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1293359337784713216

[Aric Dunn]

[EquusStorm]

Good lord. This one isn't short on convection today

[BYG Jacob]

DMAX putting in work

[TallyTracker]

I’m wondering if the easterly wind shear has actually been helpful to TD Eleven by keeping the dry air and convection west of the system. This may have assisted in the development of the protected pouch.

When the shear drops, I’m thinking dry air entrainment could start to become a more significant issue.

[MGC]

Impressive convective burst....should become Josephine tomorrow....MGC

[HuracanMaster]

Is it moving due west at the moment? Apears to be,

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[GCANE]

37 GHz Satellite Radar Analysis
4.5 hrs ago

[GCANE]

Current estimate is that it is tracking to the NW

[USTropics]

Is it moving due west at the moment? Apears to be,

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

Pretty much heading due west, I have the center at 12.1N and 43W (gained about .2 degrees in latitude since 11PM location). There should be a gradual WNW heading today and then NW in about 24 hours. Here is the first visible imagery this morning, can just catch some of the low-level cloud flow:

[GCANE]

IR Satellite indicate pulsing vortical hot towers are attempting to build a convective anticyclone over the CoC and trying to align the vort column.
Towers are firing very close to the CoC.
This is tracking along the SW side of an Antycylonic Wave Break (AWB).
GFS is showing a reduction in shear within the next 24 hrs as it feels the effect of the AWB.
It is likely that if strong convection persists and also develops a convective anticyclone, strengthening may occur at a level more than currently expected.
A TUTT to the NE of the AWB would facilitate the development of a poleward outflow channel.

[GCANE]

GFS is way way off on current interaction with SAL and in its forecast.
Obviously this is a protected pouch, yet GFS shows strong SAL involvement.
I don't trust intensity forecast as this enters the Bahamas.

[GCANE]

GFS and other globals are honing in on a possible spin up of a marginal warm core along the eastern seaboard this weekend.
This would erode the leading edge of the Rossby wave currently forecast to be positioned over the eastern CONUS, i.e. see 355K PV forecast.
This could allow the TC to track closer to the coast.
CAPE is forecast to be very high in the Bahamas, and I am very skeptical concerning any dry-air / SAL forecast.
Need to watch very closely what happens this weekend on the possible east-coast system.

[GCANE]

Two vortical hot towers now firing.
One just about on top of the CoC.
The other slightly to the NE.
Big organization underway as this interacts with the Anticyclone Wave Break.
Forget about any type of SAL entrainment.

[Aric Dunn]

First morning visible showing a larger more well defined circulation envelope. and the center more embedded within the convection. Shear has come down a good deal.

should become Josephine today at some point. assuming it continues to stay away from the dry air to the north.

[Aric Dunn]

Also given the set up.. this looks like another classic set up for the cone to be shifting west as time goes on.... the "Turn" or "bend" in the track happening later and later.

[AveryTheComrade]

Eleven is looking much better this morning than I expected, center partially exposed but mostly under the convection, unfortunately ascat missed but I assume we'll get Josephine at 11

[Aric Dunn]

From 4 hours ago..


center well embedded in the convection.

also a lot more wide spread 30kt wind barbs everywhere..

it is very close to being a TS.

[Aric Dunn]

Interestingly this is one of those cases where a stronger more vertically stacked system would stay farther south of a weaker system.

the low level ridging appears a good deal weaker NE of the Islands. while the mid level ridge is pretty stout throughout the forecast.

[wxman57]

Center is still on the eastern edge of the convection. Looks barely more than a strong tropical wave. Struggling with wind shear. Careful using those multispectral winds, as they may be looking at rotation aloft. Could become a TS later today or tomorrow but it still doesn't have much future. Probably opening up into a wave as it approaches the NE Caribbean Saturday night.