ATL: JOSEPHINE - Remnants - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#261 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Aug 11, 2020 8:35 pm

0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#262 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 11, 2020 8:40 pm

Image
3 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
EquusStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1649
Age: 34
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm
Location: Jasper, AL
Contact:

Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#263 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Aug 11, 2020 8:43 pm

Good lord. This one isn't short on convection today
2 likes   
Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

BYG Jacob

Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#264 Postby BYG Jacob » Tue Aug 11, 2020 8:56 pm

DMAX putting in work
3 likes   

TallyTracker
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 734
Joined: Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:46 pm

Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#265 Postby TallyTracker » Tue Aug 11, 2020 9:22 pm

I’m wondering if the easterly wind shear has actually been helpful to TD Eleven by keeping the dry air and convection west of the system. This may have assisted in the development of the protected pouch.

When the shear drops, I’m thinking dry air entrainment could start to become a more significant issue.
0 likes   
Fran '96, Georges '98, Gordon '00, Gabrielle '01, Charley '04, Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Barry '07, Fay '08, Debby '12, Matthew '16, Emily '17, Irma '17, Michael ‘18, Elsa ‘21, Fred ‘21, Mindy ‘21, Nicole ‘22, Idalia ‘23, Debby ‘24, Helene ‘24

User avatar
MGC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5899
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.

Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#266 Postby MGC » Tue Aug 11, 2020 9:52 pm

Impressive convective burst....should become Josephine tomorrow....MGC
0 likes   

HuracanMaster
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 45
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2020 11:20 am

Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#267 Postby HuracanMaster » Wed Aug 12, 2020 3:25 am

Is it moving due west at the moment? Apears to be,

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
0 likes   

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11496
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#268 Postby GCANE » Wed Aug 12, 2020 3:51 am

37 GHz Satellite Radar Analysis
4.5 hrs ago

Image
2 likes   

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11496
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#269 Postby GCANE » Wed Aug 12, 2020 3:54 am

Current estimate is that it is tracking to the NW

Image
1 likes   

USTropics
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2651
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
Location: Florida State University

Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#270 Postby USTropics » Wed Aug 12, 2020 4:03 am

HuracanMaster wrote:Is it moving due west at the moment? Apears to be,

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk


Pretty much heading due west, I have the center at 12.1N and 43W (gained about .2 degrees in latitude since 11PM location). There should be a gradual WNW heading today and then NW in about 24 hours. Here is the first visible imagery this morning, can just catch some of the low-level cloud flow:
Image
5 likes   

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11496
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#271 Postby GCANE » Wed Aug 12, 2020 4:10 am

IR Satellite indicate pulsing vortical hot towers are attempting to build a convective anticyclone over the CoC and trying to align the vort column.
Towers are firing very close to the CoC.
This is tracking along the SW side of an Antycylonic Wave Break (AWB).
GFS is showing a reduction in shear within the next 24 hrs as it feels the effect of the AWB.
It is likely that if strong convection persists and also develops a convective anticyclone, strengthening may occur at a level more than currently expected.
A TUTT to the NE of the AWB would facilitate the development of a poleward outflow channel.


Image

Image
7 likes   

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11496
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#272 Postby GCANE » Wed Aug 12, 2020 4:19 am

GFS is way way off on current interaction with SAL and in its forecast.
Obviously this is a protected pouch, yet GFS shows strong SAL involvement.
I don't trust intensity forecast as this enters the Bahamas.

Image

Image
8 likes   

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11496
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#273 Postby GCANE » Wed Aug 12, 2020 4:45 am

GFS and other globals are honing in on a possible spin up of a marginal warm core along the eastern seaboard this weekend.
This would erode the leading edge of the Rossby wave currently forecast to be positioned over the eastern CONUS, i.e. see 355K PV forecast.
This could allow the TC to track closer to the coast.
CAPE is forecast to be very high in the Bahamas, and I am very skeptical concerning any dry-air / SAL forecast.
Need to watch very closely what happens this weekend on the possible east-coast system.

Image

Image

Image

Image
3 likes   

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11496
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#274 Postby GCANE » Wed Aug 12, 2020 5:03 am

Two vortical hot towers now firing.
One just about on top of the CoC.
The other slightly to the NE.
Big organization underway as this interacts with the Anticyclone Wave Break.
Forget about any type of SAL entrainment.

Image

Image
3 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#275 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 12, 2020 6:11 am

First morning visible showing a larger more well defined circulation envelope. and the center more embedded within the convection. Shear has come down a good deal.

should become Josephine today at some point. assuming it continues to stay away from the dry air to the north.
3 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#276 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 12, 2020 6:29 am

Also given the set up.. this looks like another classic set up for the cone to be shifting west as time goes on.... the "Turn" or "bend" in the track happening later and later.
3 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

AveryTheComrade
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 76
Joined: Fri Jul 10, 2020 9:19 pm

Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#277 Postby AveryTheComrade » Wed Aug 12, 2020 6:31 am

Eleven is looking much better this morning than I expected, center partially exposed but mostly under the convection, unfortunately ascat missed but I assume we'll get Josephine at 11
Image
4 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#278 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 12, 2020 6:40 am

From 4 hours ago..


center well embedded in the convection.

also a lot more wide spread 30kt wind barbs everywhere..

it is very close to being a TS.

Image
4 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#279 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 12, 2020 7:10 am

Interestingly this is one of those cases where a stronger more vertically stacked system would stay farther south of a weaker system.

the low level ridging appears a good deal weaker NE of the Islands. while the mid level ridge is pretty stout throughout the forecast.
3 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22978
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#280 Postby wxman57 » Wed Aug 12, 2020 7:20 am

Center is still on the eastern edge of the convection. Looks barely more than a strong tropical wave. Struggling with wind shear. Careful using those multispectral winds, as they may be looking at rotation aloft. Could become a TS later today or tomorrow but it still doesn't have much future. Probably opening up into a wave as it approaches the NE Caribbean Saturday night.

Image
4 likes   


Return to “2020”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests