2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[Steve]

I’ve been expecting 2020 to behave a bit like 2017 (and, to a lesser extent, 2018) where the peak of activity lasted from the end of August through the first half of October. That’s 3-4 storms in August, 5-7 in September, and 2-3 in October. However, if the Atlantic is going to be prime for development even until November, then this October could be one of the most active on record...

I don't have much of an opinion on this yet, but I'm paying attention. I've read and heard a few different people's opinions on how they think timing of the peak(s) of the season might go. I'd bet it's not going to go nonstop through November.
There are always breaks in a season because of all the major atmospheric changes that happen from August to November (all types, levels and from all directions). Patterns intensify and relax. MJO and Kelvin Waves come by. Fronts come down often with splitting troughs in La Nina so you need a few days to clear those patterns and have a weakness, etc.. I think I read someone suggest 3 weeks or so of activity, a break of a week or two and then another burst. Bastardi suggested that we might have a 6ish week period of intense activity and the not much after that. Others have said they think September and October will be busy.

?

Noll's statement was "risks into November". Pretty sure nobody would read this as nonstop action, but rather a general favorable background state that will be anomalous to a peak centered burst and done regime.

I was talking about timing of the season and not so much whether or not the season could still be producing storms in November or December. I'm sure there are parts of the basin that can and might support that. What I was referring to is more that there isn't likely to be like a 90 day marathon of storms. So what happens on timing and how does the timing play out? I don't trust longer range models that much and tend to trust pattern evolution more. So I'm curious about that aspect of how the season plays out.

[Hurricaneman]

I think at this point watching the models could be wrong As the models have been terrible at picking out tropical development, I think at this point the best thing would be to follow the MJO as that’s set to become favorable between the 20th and 25th and do believe that’s when things will become quite dangerous and the predicted steering patterns by all models say it’s going to get quite ugly

[toad strangler]

I don't have much of an opinion on this yet, but I'm paying attention. I've read and heard a few different people's opinions on how they think timing of the peak(s) of the season might go. I'd bet it's not going to go nonstop through November.
There are always breaks in a season because of all the major atmospheric changes that happen from August to November (all types, levels and from all directions). Patterns intensify and relax. MJO and Kelvin Waves come by. Fronts come down often with splitting troughs in La Nina so you need a few days to clear those patterns and have a weakness, etc.. I think I read someone suggest 3 weeks or so of activity, a break of a week or two and then another burst. Bastardi suggested that we might have a 6ish week period of intense activity and the not much after that. Others have said they think September and October will be busy.

?

Noll's statement was "risks into November". Pretty sure nobody would read this as nonstop action, but rather a general favorable background state that will be anomalous to a peak centered burst and done regime.

I was talking about timing of the season and not so much whether or not the season could still be producing storms in November or December. I'm sure there are parts of the basin that can and might support that. What I was referring to is more that there isn't likely to be like a 90 day marathon of storms. So what happens. What do we learn this year from what we see. How might it play out again differently in future seasons that share similarities with 2020.

90 day or 60 day for that matter marathon of storm isn't possible in the Atlantic Basin ....probably. Maybe a once in a thousand year season or so. Don't think that's been the idea of anybody.

[Steve]

Right, and it's the only thing I'm sure isn't going to happen for timing of activity.

If I wasn't clear, I was referring to the point that's probably the only thing I can predict won't happen. Some people have suggested the season might have multiple bursts with a possible temporary break in mid or late September or the beginning of October. Some think there might be a short and intense peak season lasting several weeks.

We don't know and the long term models are suspect in regards to timing. Only hint I think I have is that I do expect a 2-3 week period to start the peak part of the season following the MJO moving across and toward and over Africa.

[EquusStorm]

August 15 is almost upon us so gonna just bump this for relevance

As a reminder of how fast things can potentially change...

Here is the shear map for August 15, 2017

Here is a huge SAL outbreak on August 19, 2017

Two weeks before the costliest and biggest ACE-producing month in Atlantic history began

[Kazmit]

August 15 is almost upon us so gonna just bump this for relevance

As a reminder of how fast things can potentially change...

Here is the shear map for August 15, 2017

Here is a huge SAL outbreak on August 19, 2017

Two weeks before the costliest and biggest ACE-producing month in Atlantic history began

I just read that thread for a bit and it is freakishly similar to what is going on right now.

[cycloneye]

I thought being August 14 we were done showing more things that will make you once again open the eyes Here is the precipitation anomaly forecast until September 27th from ECMWF.

[1900hurricane]

Instead of looking at named storms, why not look at ACE instead? It's possible VPA will have a stronger correlation with that. Here's how seasons beginning in 1950 ranked in terms of ACE for the August 15-31st time period. The top ten seasons are highlighted in yellow.

https://i.imgur.com/yjDSwa9.png

Love your work, is your ACE/TIKE DB public by chance? I thought you linked it one time but not seeing it on your site. There's a lack of being able to efficiently track individual ACE by storm or specific time periods (working with iBTrACS but going to be a bit before I finish that project -https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ibtracs/index.php?name=ib-v4-access). All but 2007 are included in the VP anomalies I posted above with 4+ storms in the second 1/2 of August. Similarly observed VP anomaly patterns are present in 2007:
https://i.imgur.com/wu3gYGJ.png

Using all 10 of your ACE selected years, only 2004 differentiates from observed positive VP anomalies over Africa/IO in the latter half of August:
https://i.ibb.co/Ry5yzn1/Webp-net-gifmaker-2.gif

Composite of all 10 ACE selected season:
https://i.imgur.com/ByMWf51.png

Thanks, I appreciate it! I wouldn't mind making it public at some point, but at the current moment, I lack the knowledge/ability to do so, especially with the everything being constantly refreshed each time I run my script to get the latest best track data. I'd probably have to sit and figure a lot of stuff out to make something like that happen, but maybe at some point down the road! In the meantime, I definitely have no issues sharing the data whenever I find it pertinent.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1294265191635525633




 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1294265193430745091

[toad strangler]

I thought being August 14 we were done showing more things that will make you once again open the eyes Here is the precipitation anomaly forecast until September 27th from ECMWF.

https://i.imgur.com/9Fq6zgj.jpg

There's that gaping whole of dry anomalies in the Bahama's and southern half of the FL peninsula again as we have seen earlier as well. This also extends far to the east of the Bahamas. I know we aren't supposed to infer tracks looking at maps like these but it's hard not to when looking at that. This would, in theory, lend well to @gatorcane idea of no far US SE threats from the east this year. The Carolina's look really wet but with this huge dry area it wouldn't be from a tropical source verbatim.

BUT.... in the end I do know better and all that map tells me is that there will be plenty of moisture out there for a rocking September. The where and when TBD

[SFLcane]

I thought being August 14 we were done showing more things that will make you once again open the eyes Here is the precipitation anomaly forecast until September 27th from ECMWF.

https://i.imgur.com/9Fq6zgj.jpg

There's that gaping whole of dry anomalies in the Bahama's and southern half of the FL peninsula again as we have seen earlier as well. This also extends far to the east of the Bahamas. I know we aren't supposed to infer tracks looking at maps like these but it's hard not to when looking at that. This would, in theory, lend well to @gatorcane idea of no far US SE threats from the east this year. The Carolina's look really wet but with this huge dry area it wouldn't be from a tropical source verbatim.

BUT.... in the end I do know better and all that map tells me is that there will be plenty of moisture out there for a rocking September. The where and when TBD

That dry patch in the SW Atlantic do the TC's on there way to the carolinas vanish in the bermuda triangle? Precipitation forecast should not be used as tc tracks models can't predict such a thing this far into time.

[cycloneye]

Is comming.

 https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1294283628751486978

[Steve]

Is comming.

Belated feliz cumpleanos senor. I see your Age went up 1 since the last time I noticed

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Is comming.

https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1294283628751486978

Yep. Buckle up folks, this is gonna be a bumpy ride, methinks...

[hurricaneCW]

People really still thinking this is gonna end up like 2013 lol.

The ominously quiet Pacific scares me most of all, it's usually a harbinger of a very active Atlantic.

Everything is lining up for a hyperactive spurt of activity in as little as 7-10 days. I think we'll see something big shortly after the 20th.

Btw we're in a lull and are still seeing storms with Josephine & maybe Kyle off the east coast.

[cycloneye]

Is comming.

Belated feliz cumpleanos senor. I see your Age went up 1 since the last time I noticed

Muchas gracias. Thank you.

[SFLcane]

For Toad Strangler, On the Euro weeklies definitely implying tracks like Irma.

[toad strangler]

For Toad Strangler, On the Euro weeklies definitely implying tracks like Irma.

https://i.imgur.com/PPodKDx.png

egads

[Emmett_Brown]

Is comming.

https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1294283628751486978

Yep. Buckle up folks, this is gonna be a bumpy ride, methinks...

https://i.ibb.co/jRNr0yQ/eps-chi200-anomaly-hov-equatorial-2020081300-e31.png

Great Scott!!!

[SFLcane]

Is comming.

https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1294283628751486978

Yep. Buckle up folks, this is gonna be a bumpy ride, methinks...

https://i.ibb.co/jRNr0yQ/eps-chi200-anomaly-hov-equatorial-2020081300-e31.png

Why that one member?