2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Steve]

LOL. I'm not even going to post this one, and props to it if it gets it right. But at 258, GFS has massive Atlantic-wide ridging, and it's showing yet another EPAC development.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 612&fh=258

Out a little farther at 288 the GFS looks even more grim for the Atlantic. Has most of the basin in high pressure and all of the favorable conditions failing to get east of the mountains of Central America. The model loves the EPAC and has no love for the Atlantic. Bring back the phantom canes!

https://i.postimg.cc/gcSYccdM/gfs-mslpa-Norm-atl-50.png

It loops the MJO inside of Phase I. It won't budge on that solution. Again, if it gets this all correct, good job. It doesn't seem that realistic to me though, and too many experts have criticized its runs the last several days to ignore them.

[Steve]

12z CMC has it in for the upper Texas Coast...double whammy!!!


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LMAO. Looks like Upper Texas and then the South Central LA Coast in Cat 2 territory. If you look at the CMC at 500mb for hour 240, you'll see that it likes the GFS's idea of massive Atlantic ridging. But it's got favorable conditions farther east than the GFS.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 612&fh=240

[Steve]

LOL. I'm not even going to post this one, and props to it if it gets it right. But at 258, GFS has massive Atlantic-wide ridging, and it's showing yet another EPAC development.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 612&fh=258

Out a little farther at 288 the GFS looks even more grim for the Atlantic. Has most of the basin in high pressure and all of the favorable conditions failing to get east of the mountains of Central America. The model loves the EPAC and has no love for the Atlantic. Bring back the GFS phantom canes!

https://i.postimg.cc/gcSYccdM/gfs-mslpa-Norm-atl-50.png

Ok grim? Not sure what exactly you keep looking at. It’s been posted countless times by pro Mets the gfs is having real problems with handling off upper level environment in the Atlantic. Hate to tell you but there is an outbreak forthcoming across the Atl basin soon.

He means grim as in hostile conditions, not as in grim for people in harm's way.

[SFLcane]

Out a little farther at 288 the GFS looks even more grim for the Atlantic. Has most of the basin in high pressure and all of the favorable conditions failing to get east of the mountains of Central America. The model loves the EPAC and has no love for the Atlantic. Bring back the GFS phantom canes!

https://i.postimg.cc/gcSYccdM/gfs-mslpa-Norm-atl-50.png

Ok grim? Not sure what exactly you keep looking at. It’s been posted countless times by pro Mets the gfs is having real problems with handling off upper level environment in the Atlantic. Hate to tell you but there is an outbreak forthcoming across the Atl basin soon.

He means grim as in hostile conditions, not as in grim for people in harm's way.

I am aware but conditions look increasingly favorable for both waves in the western Atl. My issue is with using the gfs for upper level conditions. Frankly it’s out to lunch right now

[Steve]

Of course. But read his last sentence and the smile.

[TheDreamTraveler]

lol like I said we're still in a unfavorable and low activity period yet we just had 2 storms at once and have 2 oranges right after. But according to others who hug the models too tightly there's going to be nothing for weeks. The models are trash when it comes to guessing when and where storms will form.

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1295057229721350144




 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1295055031478243328

[Steve]

Speaking of the GFS at long range, the only US impacts in the next 16 days are a possible (?) depression like feature near Brownsville and a few surges of tropical moisture. So basically nothing. Today is August 16. 16 days is September 1st.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

European 500mb shows the trough split coming later this week. Expect high pressure to build in off the Atlantic into the SE US in the wake of the split.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1612&fh=96

[eastcoastFL]

Speaking of the GFS at long range, the only US impacts in the next 16 days are a possible (?) depression like feature near Brownsville and a few surges of tropical moisture. So basically nothing. Today is August 16. 16 days is September 1st.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

European 500mb shows the trough split coming later this week. Expect high pressure to build in off the Atlantic into the SE US in the wake of the split.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1612&fh=96

The high pressure looks like it should be pretty sturdy also so it’s an ugly set up for CONUS and the islands if something or multiple things do form. Not looking like much of a chance for anything to curve and even worse it looks like these things may make it to the Carib or gulf before they start popping

[Steve]

Agreed eastcoast. Looks like EC initially wants to block things to the point where the first potential system would likely be a west Gulf threat for somewhere from central/south Texas coast and south of there. Second one looks to be underneath high pressure. IDK.

[aspen]

Results from the 12z Euro run:

-It doesn’t do much with the first wave

-The second develops in as little as 48 hours, and while it remains weak, it tracks north of the GA like Irma and enters the Gulf as a strengthening system at the end of the run

-A third MDR system starts forming at 168 hours and follows the second wave north of the islands

[Steve]

Here's where the 500mb European ends on Tropical Tidbits. There are at least 2 trailing features behind the next couple of areas of interest. And I don't even know what that system is coming off Africa. It shows it loose, but that's as massive as wave could be. Haha.

[toad strangler]

Ominous 12z Euro run for terra firma in the Western Basin.

[Cpv17]

Ominous 12z Euro run for terra firma in the Western Basin.

It’s showing at least 4 areas of interest during the next 10 days.

[sma10]

Ominous 12z Euro run for terra firma in the Western Basin.

It’s showing at least 4 areas of interest during the next 10 days.

Not at all impossible to be at Laura and Marco by Wednesday, 8/19. Record for earliest "M" storm was Maria in 2005 - Sep 2. A full 2 week difference

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS rolling

[gatorcane]

Same story with the 18Z GFS, keeps significant activity in the EPAC and weak development to very little on the Atlantic side with timeframe coming in. I am not saying it is right but it is very persistent and still one of the best models in the world so can’t be completely discarded. Maybe we will see some more EPAC storms and some development on the Atlantic side too, but maybe not major hurricanes or high ACE storms just yet in the Atlantic.

[Cpv17]

Same story with the 18Z GFS, keeps significant activity in the EPAC and weak development to very little on the Atlantic side with timeframe coming in. I am not saying it is right but it is very persistent and still one of the best models in the world so can’t be completely discarded. Maybe we will see some more EPAC storms and some development on the Atlantic side too, but maybe not major hurricanes or high ACE storms just yet in the Atlantic.

It’s just weird to me. It’s acting like we’re in a Niño instead of Niña. It just goes against basically everything that I was ever taught about the weather.

[Kingarabian]

Same story with the 18Z GFS, keeps significant activity in the EPAC and weak development to very little on the Atlantic side with timeframe coming in. I am not saying it is right but it is very persistent and still one of the best models in the world so can’t be completely discarded. Maybe we will see some more EPAC storms and some development on the Atlantic side too, but maybe not major hurricanes or high ACE storms just yet in the Atlantic.

It’s just weird to me. It’s acting like we’re in a Niño instead of Niña. It just goes against basically everything that I was ever taught about the weather.

And so far, it has been verifying poorly.

[CyclonicFury]

Same story with the 18Z GFS, keeps significant activity in the EPAC and weak development to very little on the Atlantic side with timeframe coming in. I am not saying it is right but it is very persistent and still one of the best models in the world so can’t be completely discarded. Maybe we will see some more EPAC storms and some development on the Atlantic side too, but maybe not major hurricanes or high ACE storms just yet in the Atlantic.

It's hard for me to take the GFS seriously when it keeps moving the MJO backward into phase 8 during a developing La Nina and a very favorable Atlantic base state. Yes, it did well at predicting the genesis of Genevieve, but so did nearly every other model. The EPS/ECMWF is starting to trend towards more Atlantic activity, in line with the CMC/ICON. NHC doesn't seem to buy the idea that the EPAC will stay active after Genevieve.

[MarioProtVI]

Same story with the 18Z GFS, keeps significant activity in the EPAC and weak development to very little on the Atlantic side with timeframe coming in. I am not saying it is right but it is very persistent and still one of the best models in the world so can’t be completely discarded. Maybe we will see some more EPAC storms and some development on the Atlantic side too, but maybe not major hurricanes or high ACE storms just yet in the Atlantic.