ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

97L INVEST 200817 0000 12.4N 52.4W ATL 25 1009

At 0000 UTC, 17 August 2020, DISTURBANCE INVEST 97 (AL97) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 12.4°N and 52.4°W. The current intensity was 25 kt and the center was moving at 18 kt at a bearing of 275 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb.

[Cpv17]

I think you guys are onto something wrt future track. A straight climo bet is west. But we've had some troughy conditions this season that make such a solution more iffy than usual. it is exactly why i suggested a couple days back to take no comfort in troughiness along with a more favorable Caribbean. Early instinct still leans west but more uncertainty than would otherwise be the case..

Pretty substantial positively-tilted long wave trough at 500 mb forecasted by the GFS down to the northern GOM forecast the next 5-9 days. I know its a week out and things change, but that trough completely erodes the Atlantic ridges western half over the western and central GOM. Almost looks like a Charley-like trough. If this verifies, the western Caribbean storm would move north or N-NE from the Yuc straits.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=z500aNorm&runtime=2020081618&fh=6

The risk of a more easterly solution is likely destined to be higher than one would expect based upon calendar alone. I have been watching WPC's 7 day QPF output with interest. It's juicy in our neck of the woods. To be fair, a more westerly solution would be beyond 7 days so those folks are not out of the hunt by any stretch, it's just more like 8-10 days. Needless to say, watching the evolution of this and other guidance over the next few days will help provide some clarity.

Even if this develops and doesn’t directly hit Florida, FL will probably get a lot of rain from it.

[TallyTracker]

This one has my attention! Just checked my water and non perishable stores just too make sure I’m good. The Publix in my neighborhood here in Tally is still running short of most non-perishable canned goods and bottled water. I’m very concerned about supplies should 97L or later systems pose a major threat to our region.

[stormlover2013]

This one has my attention! Just checked my water and non perishable stores just too make sure I’m good. The Publix in my neighborhood here in Tally is still running short of most non-perishable canned goods and bottled water. I’m very concerned about supplies should 97L or later systems pose a major threat to our region.

I don’t see this being a panhandle storm

[mpic]

Is this official...97L? The NOAA facebook page was still calling it a wave an hour ago? Did I miss something?

[SconnieCane]

Is this official...97L? The NOAA facebook page was still calling it a wave an hour ago? Did I miss something?

It *is* a wave.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

This one looks like trouble potentially to me. Between its fast forward motion and the typical East Caribbean hostilities, development isn't likely in the short term. By the time it reaches Jamaica's longitude, though, it should slow down substantially while being positioned underneath a broad upper-level anticyclone. Operational models have struggled with genesis this year, most notably with Hanna. This may be another case where models need to quickly adjust upward with intensity.

[gatorcane]

Looks to be getting hit with mid-level shear. Still appears once this wave reaches the Central-West Caribbean and slows down, gradual development is possible. A weaker more shallow system moves west into Central America / Yucatan but a deeper more intense system would slow down a bit more and move more poleward. Guidance still remains on the weak side but given the time of year and where it is headed, it is possible guidance is too weak.

[Steve]

This one looks like trouble potentially to me. Between its fast forward motion and the typical East Caribbean hostilities, development isn't likely in the short term. By the time it reaches Jamaica's longitude, though, it should slow down substantially while being positioned underneath a broad upper-level anticyclone. Operational models have struggled with genesis this year, most notably with Hanna. This may be another case where models need to quickly adjust upward with intensity.

Could be one of those cases. I think it’s really hard to say yet, but that’s just me. Ceiling for the trailing wave looks a lot higher. But if this was able to move to the western Gulf or at least slow enough coming up otherwise, you could see a moderate hurricane coming out of this one.

[DestinHurricane]

Don't call anything off anything with low shear and warm water in the GOM!

[aspen]

Don't call anything off anything with low shear and warm water in the GOM!

Warm is an understatement. They’re so hot that over half of the Gulf is marked as being able to support an <890 mbar system on the latest Maximum Potential Intensity maps. If anything gets in there with enough time and a favorable environment, it is going to explode. A quicker system through the Gulf would limit its potential, but with peak season arriving and two AEWs on there was westward with the chance of getting into the Gulf, I have a feeling we’ll see a major in there before the end of August.

[Steve]

Don't call anything off anything with low shear and warm water in the GOM!

I wouldn’t do that in this type of case and this far out. Ceiling could go way up. But the reasonable assumption this far out would be at least a strong ts to moderate hurricane looks like a safe betting range. Most experts think we will get 9-12 hurricanes. We only had 2 I think so far. So you already know.

[gatorcane]

I think Earl 2016 was the last good example of what could happen. That hurricane formed from a wave moving west across the Caribbean. Once it got to the Western Caribbean, it really took off. I recall models were also not too bullish initially except I think the Euro picked up on a possible hurricane first. The difference is that this invest could turn more north if it becomes a hurricane instead of crashing into Central America,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Earl_(2016)

[sma10]

Don't call anything off anything with low shear and warm water in the GOM!

Warm is an understatement. They’re so hot that over half of the Gulf is marked as being able to support an <890 mbar system on the latest Maximum Potential Intensity maps. If anything gets in there with enough time and a favorable environment, it is going to explode. A quicker system through the Gulf would limit its potential, but with peak season arriving and two AEWs on there was westward with the chance of getting into the Gulf, I have a feeling we’ll see a major in there before the end of August.

Furthermore, please don't take Global Models intensity verbatim. The NHC relies very much of course on the globals tracking prowess, but often mentions that the margin of error on intensity is great. For example, if you see a global 7 day forecast showing a 982mb low in the Gulf the only thing you can discern is that conditions are likely favorable, but actual intensity could be significantly greater

[DestinHurricane]

Don't call anything off anything with low shear and warm water in the GOM!

Warm is an understatement. They’re so hot that over half of the Gulf is marked as being able to support an <890 mbar system on the latest Maximum Potential Intensity maps. If anything gets in there with enough time and a favorable environment, it is going to explode. A quicker system through the Gulf would limit its potential, but with peak season arriving and two AEWs on there was westward with the chance of getting into the Gulf, I have a feeling we’ll see a major in there before the end of August.

Exactly. If anything gets in there right now and shear is low, a major hurricane is rather likely if it has time.

[Steve]

What percent would you put as rather likely?

[DestinHurricane]

What percent would you put as rather likely?

60-70% but that is IF the conditions are right.

[Cpv17]

Can anyone tell me how you view the sst’s on TT?

[abajan]

If this becomes the L storm, what would be the name?

Laura.

Pronounced LOOR-ruh.
Yep. Here we go again.

[shiny-pebble]

Can anyone tell me how you view the sst’s on TT?

Go to the analysis tools tab and click ocean analysis

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