ATL: LAURA - Models

[SFLcane]

[SouthFLTropics]

Looking at what SFLcane just posted, this may well end up being very similar to Isaias. Due to the strength of the ridge the future of 98L may end up being very dependent on its interaction with Hispaniola.


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[Florida1118]

00z EPS is much less enthusiastic.

It would be quite something if we couldn’t buy a major hurricane from this.

reminds me of when everything dropped irma for a day or two.

Yeah I don't remember that. Either the Euro is right or it's wrong. We are heading into the last third of August so it would be pathetic if we couldn't buy a major hurricane fro this.

Here you go. A direct quote from you in the Irma Models thread when the models stopped developing Irma for a short time.

I've lost track of how many times this season the GFS has fooled me showing a Tropical Atlantic hurricane many runs in a row only to drop it suddenly in just 1 run. The takeaway is despite the season peak just being less than 2 weeks away the Tropical Atlantic remains EXTREMELY unfavorable for whatever reasons.

[SFLcane]

06z Icon..

[NDG]

Models have trended to a stronger Bermuda ridge developing, Gatorcane's eastern US trough is no where to be found.

[SFLcane]

Models have trended to a stronger Bermuda ridge developing, Gatorcane's eastern US trough is no where to be found.

https://i.imgur.com/19hUmIa.gif
https://i.imgur.com/cSJY2tt.gif

Indeed! Pretty potent ridging when this gets into the Bahamas.

[SouthFLTropics]

I noticed that they have started running the hurricane models as of 00z last night. The 00z HWRF takes it into PR as a 95 knot hurricane in 126 hours while the HMON keeps it north of there, albeit weaker. Looking at the intensity guidance it appears that the HWRF kills it off shortly thereafter, most likely due to a run in with the big islands.


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[SFLcane]

I noticed that they have started running the hurricane models as of 00z last night. The 00z HWRF takes it into PR as a 95 knot hurricane in 126 hours while the HMON keeps it north of there, albeit weaker. Looking at the intensity guidance it appears that the HWRF kills it off shortly thereafter, most likely due to a run in with the big islands.


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06z HWRF running.

[Nimbus]

The key takeaway for me is the ridge is strong. We all know how unreliable intensity modeling is especially this far out. We will most likely have a storm that will impact landmasses in the Carribean and US because of the strong ridge.

That and the increase in African train activity along the ITCZ.
97L moisture envelope is maintaining and 98L will probably track closer to the northern islands or at least 99L through the Hebert box.
Details of the carnage at 11, as they say when the media doesn't have a clue.
If we had one strong system recurving and leaving a weakness the CONUS might be protected for weeks!
A major hurricane can displace the mid Atlantic high and put all kinds of kinks in the Jet stream.

I'm not really buying the trough digging into the Caribbean and scooping 97L scenario just yet, that is more likely to happen with a strong late season storm pulling down our first winter season trough though. Current scenario if the trough misses the storm the 97L track shifts further south and west potentially making landfall in a less populated desert area.

[SFLcane]

00z HMON just north of PR.

[Shell Mound]

At least the Euro is back on the left and GFS is on the right...

Interestingly, the strongest EPS members are on the southern edge of the spread and take the system closer to Hispaniola and the northeastern coast of Cuba.

[gatorcane]

Models have trended to a stronger Bermuda ridge developing, Gatorcane's eastern US trough is no where to be found.

https://i.imgur.com/19hUmIa.gif
https://i.imgur.com/cSJY2tt.gif

Indeed! Pretty potent ridging when this gets into the Bahamas.

Models are also trending weaker with the Euro barely showing a TS and GFS doesn’t even develop.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1295608863471935488

[toad strangler]

Models have trended to a stronger Bermuda ridge developing, Gatorcane's eastern US trough is no where to be found.

https://i.imgur.com/19hUmIa.gif
https://i.imgur.com/cSJY2tt.gif

Indeed! Pretty potent ridging when this gets into the Bahamas.

Models are also trending weaker with the Euro barely showing a TS and GFS doesn’t even develop.

There is no storm yet so there can be no trends. Can't say it enough, watch Levi's video from last night.

[NDG]

Models have trended to a stronger Bermuda ridge developing, Gatorcane's eastern US trough is no where to be found.

https://i.imgur.com/19hUmIa.gif
https://i.imgur.com/cSJY2tt.gif

Indeed! Pretty potent ridging when this gets into the Bahamas.

Models are also trending weaker with the Euro barely showing a TS and GFS doesn’t even develop.

Yep, the same GFS and Euro that missed development of Hanna into a strong Cat 1 hurricane in their short range forecast and have missed development of many systems over the MDR so far.

[gatorcane]

There is a reason why the models are not really enthusiastic well at least the good models. I pointed this out last night but there is a trough ahead and also there is a lot of dry air still. I am not saying this wave will never develop but obstacles lie ahead as I pointed out. Yes I watched Levi’s video. He is right to say the wave is a complete mess.

[SouthFLTropics]

06z HWRF coming in SOUTH of Puerto Rico

This wave is starting to look like the early stages of Isaias, Part 2.

[SFLcane]

06z HWRF coming in SOUTH of Puerto Rico

This wave is starting to look like the early stages of Isaias, Part 2.

Except conditions should be more favorable. I don’t think it gets into the Caribbean.

[SFLcane]

06z Euro rolling.

[Steve]

reminds me of when everything dropped irma for a day or two.

Yeah I don't remember that. Either the Euro is right or it's wrong. We are heading into the last third of August so it would be pathetic if we couldn't buy a major hurricane fro this.

Here you go. A direct quote from you in the Irma Models thread when the models stopped developing Irma for a short time.

I've lost track of how many times this season the GFS has fooled me showing a Tropical Atlantic hurricane many runs in a row only to drop it suddenly in just 1 run. The takeaway is despite the season peak just being less than 2 weeks away the Tropical Atlantic remains EXTREMELY unfavorable for whatever reasons.

Something must have been off.