ATL: LAURA - Models

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toad strangler
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#361 Postby toad strangler » Tue Aug 18, 2020 1:50 pm

chris_fit wrote:12Z Euro Run - Very VERY similar to the 12z GFS

https://i.imgur.com/VX0RdNa.png


Except the Euro stays N of the GA's. Just keeps it a wave all the way through the FL Straits up into LA.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#362 Postby sma10 » Tue Aug 18, 2020 1:51 pm

How are 97L and 98L any different than the other storms this season? The models, for whatever reason, have struggled with genesis. We keep saying with each invest, "oh, this time the GFS/EURO surely will be correct with no development" ...

If they do not develop at all, then Bravo Euro and GFS. But if these end up becoming storms in the Gulf and Bahamas, it'll probably be time to give CMC and ICON a bit more weight this season
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#363 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Aug 18, 2020 1:52 pm

saw hwrf is headed towards the JMA model
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#364 Postby chris_fit » Tue Aug 18, 2020 1:54 pm

Alright, so who can give us updates/graphics as the 12Z EURO ENS come in? :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#365 Postby lsuhurricane » Tue Aug 18, 2020 1:57 pm

Alright, so who can give us updates/graphics as the 12Z EURO ENS come in? :lol:


Based on the first 54 hours, the ensembles are in agreement with the operational with no development.

A huge constrast to the prior 6z run
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#366 Postby chris_fit » Tue Aug 18, 2020 2:00 pm

lsuhurricane wrote:
Alright, so who can give us updates/graphics as the 12Z EURO ENS come in? :lol:


Based on the first 54 hours, the ensembles are in agreement with the operational with no development.

A huge constrast to the prior 6z run



Crazy! Right when 98L (IMO) Looks the best it ever has, models back down!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#367 Postby mcheer23 » Tue Aug 18, 2020 2:01 pm

Not much through 90
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#368 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Aug 18, 2020 2:02 pm

And tomorrow it will magically reappear.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#369 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Tue Aug 18, 2020 2:06 pm

chris_fit wrote:
lsuhurricane wrote:
Alright, so who can give us updates/graphics as the 12Z EURO ENS come in? :lol:


Based on the first 54 hours, the ensembles are in agreement with the operational with no development.

A huge constrast to the prior 6z run



Crazy! Right when 98L (IMO) Looks the best it ever has, models back down!

can't wait for the models to continue to show no development when it becomes a TD.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#370 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Aug 18, 2020 2:07 pm

My thought is we should go with the ensembles, they did much better with previous systems that the operational versions

Also the CMC has done the best with cyclogenesis this year

And we can’t know what strength this will be if the models can’t even get initial strength right
Last edited by Hurricaneman on Tue Aug 18, 2020 2:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#371 Postby chris_fit » Tue Aug 18, 2020 2:09 pm

Just for fun, here's the NAV

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#372 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Aug 18, 2020 2:09 pm

12z Euro ensembles are a virtual ghost town...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#373 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 18, 2020 2:11 pm

Hammy wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:It’s crazy how we went from the season exploding just two day ago to potentially nothing at all now, if neither one of these 2 invests develop. What the hell is going on with the Atlantic?


The models have been trash this year, that's what's wrong.


Yep, and a friendly reminder how the GFS & Euro operationals had Hanna as nothing but an open wave just 3 days before it developed, the Euro ensembles were only ones hinting to development.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#374 Postby BobHarlem » Tue Aug 18, 2020 2:12 pm

Ensemble spots, pretty light compared to the 6z. That as we may get a depression from it at 5pm. Also 97L may be messing with things too, so yeah tough forecast.

Image
Last edited by BobHarlem on Tue Aug 18, 2020 2:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#375 Postby SFLcane » Tue Aug 18, 2020 2:13 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:12z Euro ensembles are a virtual ghost town...


Yep... models atleast “ reliable “ ones have been trending weaker all day. Feeling a lot better today that this may never develop into anything of any significance. I've seen enough of these to know that if (UK, Euro) like a system then back down, there's a reason.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#376 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 18, 2020 2:14 pm

BobHarlem wrote:Ensemble spots, pretty light compared to the 6z.
https://i.imgur.com/JxCA9Ue.png


In that case, next! j/k :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#377 Postby SFLcane » Tue Aug 18, 2020 2:17 pm

NDG wrote:
BobHarlem wrote:Ensemble spots, pretty light compared to the 6z.
https://i.imgur.com/JxCA9Ue.png


In that case, next! j/k :lol:


What next? Euro closed down the season next 10 days. Lol
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#378 Postby ConvergenceZone » Tue Aug 18, 2020 2:18 pm

SFLcane wrote:
PTrackerLA wrote:12z Euro ensembles are a virtual ghost town...


Yep... models atleast “ reliable “ ones have been trending weaker all day. Feeling a lot better today that this may never develop into anything of any significance. I've seen enough of these to know that if (UK, Euro) like a system then back down, there's a reason.


Yep, moving on. I’ll check back over the weekend and see if we have anything new to track. Hopefully another robust wave coming off of Africa soon
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#379 Postby BobHarlem » Tue Aug 18, 2020 2:22 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:Yep, moving on. I’ll check back over the weekend and see if we have anything new to track. Hopefully another robust wave coming off of Africa soon


Go look at 98l's satellite loop right now. Models aren't the whole story.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#380 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 18, 2020 2:23 pm

One thing for sure is that the Euro keeps trending towards one heck of a Bermuda ridge building.

Image
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