ATL: LAURA - Models

[toad strangler]

12Z Euro Run - Very VERY similar to the 12z GFS

https://i.imgur.com/VX0RdNa.png

Except the Euro stays N of the GA's. Just keeps it a wave all the way through the FL Straits up into LA.

[sma10]

How are 97L and 98L any different than the other storms this season? The models, for whatever reason, have struggled with genesis. We keep saying with each invest, "oh, this time the GFS/EURO surely will be correct with no development" ...

If they do not develop at all, then Bravo Euro and GFS. But if these end up becoming storms in the Gulf and Bahamas, it'll probably be time to give CMC and ICON a bit more weight this season

[stormlover2013]

saw hwrf is headed towards the JMA model

[chris_fit]

Alright, so who can give us updates/graphics as the 12Z EURO ENS come in?

[lsuhurricane]

Alright, so who can give us updates/graphics as the 12Z EURO ENS come in?

Based on the first 54 hours, the ensembles are in agreement with the operational with no development.

A huge constrast to the prior 6z run

[chris_fit]

Alright, so who can give us updates/graphics as the 12Z EURO ENS come in?

Based on the first 54 hours, the ensembles are in agreement with the operational with no development.

A huge constrast to the prior 6z run

Crazy! Right when 98L (IMO) Looks the best it ever has, models back down!

[mcheer23]

Not much through 90

[Stormcenter]

And tomorrow it will magically reappear.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Alright, so who can give us updates/graphics as the 12Z EURO ENS come in?

Based on the first 54 hours, the ensembles are in agreement with the operational with no development.

A huge constrast to the prior 6z run

Crazy! Right when 98L (IMO) Looks the best it ever has, models back down!

can't wait for the models to continue to show no development when it becomes a TD.

[Hurricaneman]

My thought is we should go with the ensembles, they did much better with previous systems that the operational versions

Also the CMC has done the best with cyclogenesis this year

And we can’t know what strength this will be if the models can’t even get initial strength right

[chris_fit]

Just for fun, here's the NAV

[PTrackerLA]

12z Euro ensembles are a virtual ghost town...

[NDG]

It’s crazy how we went from the season exploding just two day ago to potentially nothing at all now, if neither one of these 2 invests develop. What the hell is going on with the Atlantic?

The models have been trash this year, that's what's wrong.

Yep, and a friendly reminder how the GFS & Euro operationals had Hanna as nothing but an open wave just 3 days before it developed, the Euro ensembles were only ones hinting to development.

[BobHarlem]

Ensemble spots, pretty light compared to the 6z. That as we may get a depression from it at 5pm. Also 97L may be messing with things too, so yeah tough forecast.

[SFLcane]

12z Euro ensembles are a virtual ghost town...

Yep... models atleast “ reliable “ ones have been trending weaker all day. Feeling a lot better today that this may never develop into anything of any significance. I've seen enough of these to know that if (UK, Euro) like a system then back down, there's a reason.

[NDG]

Ensemble spots, pretty light compared to the 6z.
https://i.imgur.com/JxCA9Ue.png

In that case, next! j/k

[SFLcane]

Ensemble spots, pretty light compared to the 6z.
https://i.imgur.com/JxCA9Ue.png

In that case, next! j/k

What next? Euro closed down the season next 10 days. Lol

[ConvergenceZone]

12z Euro ensembles are a virtual ghost town...

Yep... models atleast “ reliable “ ones have been trending weaker all day. Feeling a lot better today that this may never develop into anything of any significance. I've seen enough of these to know that if (UK, Euro) like a system then back down, there's a reason.

Yep, moving on. I’ll check back over the weekend and see if we have anything new to track. Hopefully another robust wave coming off of Africa soon

[BobHarlem]

Yep, moving on. I’ll check back over the weekend and see if we have anything new to track. Hopefully another robust wave coming off of Africa soon

Go look at 98l's satellite loop right now. Models aren't the whole story.

[NDG]

One thing for sure is that the Euro keeps trending towards one heck of a Bermuda ridge building.