
ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
Remnants of the outflow boundary seem to be taking a sudden sharp turn to the south.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
GCANE wrote:Remnants of the outflow boundary seem to be taking a sudden sharp turn to the south.
https://i.imgur.com/ejuugzs.png
There is still a broad circulation but definitely it is still interacting with a dry environment nearby. I don't see this start really organizing until it gets into at least the west central Caribbean where a more moist environment & surface convergence awaits for it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
NDG wrote:GCANE wrote:Remnants of the outflow boundary seem to be taking a sudden sharp turn to the south.
https://i.imgur.com/ejuugzs.png
There is still a broad circulation but definitely it is still interacting with a dry environment nearby. I don't see this start really organizing until it gets into at least the west central Caribbean where a more moist environment & surface convergence awaits for it.
Pretty much what the experts (NHC) has been saying all along. No?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
Radar starting to indicate that broad LLC..
looking interesting ..
looking interesting ..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:Radar starting to indicate that broad LLC..
looking interesting ..
Yeah, and even the outflow boundaries appear to be in the circulation, have not seen that too often...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
I'm starting to think this one could end up as a BOC storm.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
supercane4867 wrote:I'm starting to think this one could end up as a BOC storm.
Don’t model hug it’s a bad friend
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
It's a completely legitimate scenario. The same pattern that would send it north into the Gulf coast would also send 98L out to sea.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
supercane4867 wrote:
It's a completely legitimate scenario. The same pattern that would send it north into the Gulf coast would also send 98L out to sea.
98L will not be a fish or East coast storm mark it down
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
Definitely a LLC slowly coming together.. a solid convective burst will tighten this right up.. ( im saving every image and making these animations because the original animations are terrible. )


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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
Definitely could enhance the Catatumbo lightning for a bit with effects at that low a latitude.
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Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
stormlover2013 wrote:
98L will not be a fish or East coast storm mark it down
Then 97L will likely be a BOC storm as I suggested. Two Gulf coast hit occurring at the same time is extremely unlikely. (Yes it happened in 04 but Charley was coming from the Caribbean and Bonnie weakened to a depression at landfall)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing
a large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms, along
with strong gusty winds on the north side of the disturbance.
Significant development of this system is unlikely during the next
day or so while it moves quickly westward at about 20 mph across
the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. After that time, however,
the wave is forecast to move more slowly west-northwestward, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this
weekend when the system reaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
a large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms, along
with strong gusty winds on the north side of the disturbance.
Significant development of this system is unlikely during the next
day or so while it moves quickly westward at about 20 mph across
the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. After that time, however,
the wave is forecast to move more slowly west-northwestward, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this
weekend when the system reaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
stormlover2013 wrote:
98L will not be a fish or East coast storm mark it down
How’d you come up with this theory? You think it’ll go south of the islands?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
eastcoastFL wrote:stormlover2013 wrote:supercane4867 wrote:It's a completely legitimate scenario. The same pattern that would send it north into the Gulf coast would also send 98L out to sea.
98L will not be a fish or East coast storm mark it down
How’d you come up with this theory? You think it’ll go south of the islands?
Because I don’t think the ridge will break down, I don’t think the trough will break it down, I mean euro and jma ensembles pattern has stout ridge so we shall see
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
supercane4867 wrote:stormlover2013 wrote:supercane4867 wrote:It's a completely legitimate scenario. The same pattern that would send it north into the Gulf coast would also send 98L out to sea.
98L will not be a fish or East coast storm mark it down
Then 97L will likely be a BOC storm as I suggested. Two Gulf coast hit occurring at the same time is extremely unlikely. (Yes it happened in 04 but Charley was coming from the Caribbean and Bonnie weakened to a depression at landfall)
It is interesting since Bonnie and Charlie both formed in this general area
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
stormlover2013 wrote:eastcoastFL wrote:stormlover2013 wrote:
98L will not be a fish or East coast storm mark it down
How’d you come up with this theory? You think it’ll go south of the islands?
Because I don’t think the ridge will break down, I don’t think the trough will break it down, I mean euro and jma ensembles pattern has stout ridge so we shall see
If the ridge holds firm wouldn’t that make this more likely to be an east coast storm running into some portion of Florida before heading to the gulf? Any other option would have to be much further south in my opinion and if that were the case I’d think the DR and Cuba would probably rip it to pieces unless it pulled an Irma.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
We know there’s a good chance that this goes into the western Caribbean and develops. Where it goes from there I have no idea. Mexico to the Florida panhandle are all in play. What’s weird to me is the lack of model support this has when it’ll be going into the western Caribbean and likely the Gulf where SST’s are boiling. I guess the models must be seeing a lot of shear.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
Cpv17 wrote:We know there’s a good chance that this goes into the western Caribbean and develops. Where it goes from there I have no idea. Mexico to the Florida panhandle are all in play. What’s weird to me is the lack of model support this has when it’ll be going into the western Caribbean and likely the Gulf where SST’s are boiling. I guess the models must be seeing a lot of shear.
I think the models are forecasting shear in the western Caribbean due to the EPAC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
eastcoastFL wrote:Cpv17 wrote:We know there’s a good chance that this goes into the western Caribbean and develops. Where it goes from there I have no idea. Mexico to the Florida panhandle are all in play. What’s weird to me is the lack of model support this has when it’ll be going into the western Caribbean and likely the Gulf where SST’s are boiling. I guess the models must be seeing a lot of shear.
I think the models are forecasting shear in the western Caribbean due to the EPAC
Yeah that’s the only thing that I can come up with too. But we all know how poorly the models have been on strength this year.
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