ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

Remnants of the outflow boundary seem to be taking a sudden sharp turn to the south.

[NDG]

Remnants of the outflow boundary seem to be taking a sudden sharp turn to the south.

https://i.imgur.com/ejuugzs.png

There is still a broad circulation but definitely it is still interacting with a dry environment nearby. I don't see this start really organizing until it gets into at least the west central Caribbean where a more moist environment & surface convergence awaits for it.

[3090]

Remnants of the outflow boundary seem to be taking a sudden sharp turn to the south.

https://i.imgur.com/ejuugzs.png

There is still a broad circulation but definitely it is still interacting with a dry environment nearby. I don't see this start really organizing until it gets into at least the west central Caribbean where a more moist environment & surface convergence awaits for it.

Pretty much what the experts (NHC) has been saying all along. No?

[Aric Dunn]

Radar starting to indicate that broad LLC..

looking interesting ..

[Frank P]

Radar starting to indicate that broad LLC..

looking interesting ..

Yeah, and even the outflow boundaries appear to be in the circulation, have not seen that too often...

[supercane4867]

I'm starting to think this one could end up as a BOC storm.

[stormlover2013]

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I'm starting to think this one could end up as a BOC storm.

Don’t model hug it’s a bad friend

[supercane4867]

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I'm starting to think this one could end up as a BOC storm.

Don’t model hug it’s a bad friend

It's a completely legitimate scenario. The same pattern that would send it north into the Gulf coast would also send 98L out to sea.

[stormlover2013]

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I'm starting to think this one could end up as a BOC storm.

Don’t model hug it’s a bad friend

It's a completely legitimate scenario. The same pattern that would send it north into the Gulf coast would also send 98L out to sea.

98L will not be a fish or East coast storm mark it down

[Aric Dunn]

Definitely a LLC slowly coming together.. a solid convective burst will tighten this right up.. ( im saving every image and making these animations because the original animations are terrible. )

[EquusStorm]

Definitely could enhance the Catatumbo lightning for a bit with effects at that low a latitude.

[supercane4867]

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Don’t model hug it’s a bad friend

It's a completely legitimate scenario. The same pattern that would send it north into the Gulf coast would also send 98L out to sea.

98L will not be a fish or East coast storm mark it down

Then 97L will likely be a BOC storm as I suggested. Two Gulf coast hit occurring at the same time is extremely unlikely. (Yes it happened in 04 but Charley was coming from the Caribbean and Bonnie weakened to a depression at landfall)

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing
a large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms, along
with strong gusty winds on the north side of the disturbance.
Significant development of this system is unlikely during the next
day or so while it moves quickly westward at about 20 mph across
the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. After that time, however,
the wave is forecast to move more slowly west-northwestward, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this
weekend when the system reaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[eastcoastFL]

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Don’t model hug it’s a bad friend

It's a completely legitimate scenario. The same pattern that would send it north into the Gulf coast would also send 98L out to sea.

98L will not be a fish or East coast storm mark it down

How’d you come up with this theory? You think it’ll go south of the islands?

[stormlover2013]

It's a completely legitimate scenario. The same pattern that would send it north into the Gulf coast would also send 98L out to sea.

98L will not be a fish or East coast storm mark it down

How’d you come up with this theory? You think it’ll go south of the islands?

Because I don’t think the ridge will break down, I don’t think the trough will break it down, I mean euro and jma ensembles pattern has stout ridge so we shall see

[eastcoastFL]

It's a completely legitimate scenario. The same pattern that would send it north into the Gulf coast would also send 98L out to sea.

98L will not be a fish or East coast storm mark it down

Then 97L will likely be a BOC storm as I suggested. Two Gulf coast hit occurring at the same time is extremely unlikely. (Yes it happened in 04 but Charley was coming from the Caribbean and Bonnie weakened to a depression at landfall)

It is interesting since Bonnie and Charlie both formed in this general area

[eastcoastFL]

98L will not be a fish or East coast storm mark it down

How’d you come up with this theory? You think it’ll go south of the islands?

Because I don’t think the ridge will break down, I don’t think the trough will break it down, I mean euro and jma ensembles pattern has stout ridge so we shall see

If the ridge holds firm wouldn’t that make this more likely to be an east coast storm running into some portion of Florida before heading to the gulf? Any other option would have to be much further south in my opinion and if that were the case I’d think the DR and Cuba would probably rip it to pieces unless it pulled an Irma.

[Cpv17]

We know there’s a good chance that this goes into the western Caribbean and develops. Where it goes from there I have no idea. Mexico to the Florida panhandle are all in play. What’s weird to me is the lack of model support this has when it’ll be going into the western Caribbean and likely the Gulf where SST’s are boiling. I guess the models must be seeing a lot of shear.

[eastcoastFL]

We know there’s a good chance that this goes into the western Caribbean and develops. Where it goes from there I have no idea. Mexico to the Florida panhandle are all in play. What’s weird to me is the lack of model support this has when it’ll be going into the western Caribbean and likely the Gulf where SST’s are boiling. I guess the models must be seeing a lot of shear.

I think the models are forecasting shear in the western Caribbean due to the EPAC

[Cpv17]

We know there’s a good chance that this goes into the western Caribbean and develops. Where it goes from there I have no idea. Mexico to the Florida panhandle are all in play. What’s weird to me is the lack of model support this has when it’ll be going into the western Caribbean and likely the Gulf where SST’s are boiling. I guess the models must be seeing a lot of shear.

I think the models are forecasting shear in the western Caribbean due to the EPAC

Yeah that’s the only thing that I can come up with too. But we all know how poorly the models have been on strength this year.