ATL: LAURA - Models

[WeatherEmperor]

HMON is in striking distance of South Florida




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[WxEp]

00z GEFS below. Looks concerning for both the Bahamas and FL, especially as long as 98L stays north of the Greater Antilles.

[AxaltaRacing24]

00z GEFS below. Looks concerning for both the Bahamas and FL, especially as long as 98L stays north of the Greater Antilles.

https://i.imgur.com/GYXNe3d.png

people are underestimating the risk of this setup if 98L clears the Antilles without a trough curving it out. so let's hope one comes through for us.

[WeatherEmperor]

As if the models havent been painful enough, the Euro decided to poof 98L..........




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[AtlanticWind]

Its weird, the euro seems to act like a disturbance isnt there

[AxaltaRacing24]

Its weird, the euro seems to act like a disturbance isnt there

model watching in 2020 gives me a headache.

[storm4u]

Euro will be a huge fail or huge win... 0z has nothing out to hour 72

[AxaltaRacing24]

Euro will be a huge fail or huge win... 0z has nothing out to hour 72

if the euro is right, 98L should be dissipating by tomorrow night into thursday morning.

[AtlanticWind]

Euro does not do anything to 97L either, seems to show hostile ( I guess) conditions in the atlantic.
Seems strange as other models show at least somewhat favorable conditions.

[CrazyC83]

00z GEFS below. Looks concerning for both the Bahamas and FL, especially as long as 98L stays north of the Greater Antilles.

https://i.imgur.com/GYXNe3d.png

I think we're underestimating the strength of the ridge, but that is just me. Regardless, we need to hope this fails to develop.

[AxaltaRacing24]

i'm not gonna post the run, but the wave sorta skirts the north end of the islands, and goes directly over SFL and into the gulf.

[Shell Mound]

00z GEFS below. Looks concerning for both the Bahamas and FL, especially as long as 98L stays north of the Greater Antilles.

https://i.imgur.com/GYXNe3d.png

Interestingly, while the strongest members have shifted very little beyond day five vs. the 12Z suite, the 00Z ensemble mean is now west of the strongest members for the first time, whereas at 12Z roughly an equal number of strong members deviated either to the west or the east of the mean. Verbatim, this indicates that a stronger 98L is more likely to turn earlier and, if exceptionally intense while over or near (just east of) the Bahamas, might feel the shortwave impulses to its north and break through the narrow but strong ridge, thereby following the mid-level flow and curving east of the U.S. and/or the Bahamas. Since both the GFS and the ECMWF are likely too weak with 98L through the first five days, especially from days three through five, we need to watch for any significant changes in the location and timing of the various features, including the strength of the ridge, the short-term intensity trends with 98L, the extension (if any) of the Sonoran heat ridge, and the interaction of various shortwave impulses with 98L. While the threat to South FL is increasing, even OTS options are still very much on the table. Even subtle changes could mean the difference between a major hurricane striking Miami and a major hurricane curving OTS. And we must always bear in mind that climatology usually favours OTS, given that anomalous conditions are necessary for a MH to hit any land mass.

[Hammy]

Euro will be a huge fail or huge win... 0z has nothing out to hour 72

Euro is always terrible in the Atlantic MDR, especially with large monsoonal-type systems, though I'm not sure what the reason is.

[Shell Mound]

Interestingly, the 00Z HWRF, while extremely bullish with 98L in the long term (showing a Cat-5 over the SE Bahamas), is quite realistic with the intensity and pace of organisation through day four (ninety-six hours). It shows 98L gradually strengthening and becoming a low-end TS in two days. After that, it becomes a strong TS by day four. Not only is the HWRF’s intensity realistic, but also the track. In fact, its position of 98L by day four coincides well with that of the strongest 12Z EPS members, which also show a moderate to strong TS by that time. Both the HWRF and those EPS members place 98L north of Puerto Rico by day four. The problems begin beyond day four. At that point the HWRF indicates rapid deepening of 98L to a Cat-5 and an increase in forward speed as it continues WNW into the SE Bahamas. Based on the projected synoptic environment on the 12Z EPS, the sudden acceleration of 98L coincident with rapid deepening just seems unrealistic. A rapidly deepening TC would arguably move more slowly by then. I wonder if this is a known bias of the HWRF: unrealistically accelerating storms beneath ridges as they intensify quickly. The HWRF seems to artificially “pump up” background ridging due to flaws in its equations handling adiabatic warming with rapidly deepening cyclones. Thoughts?

[Blinhart]

The CMC destroys New Orleans

You mean rain wise?

20" of rain and hurricane winds for 24 hrs .. yikes

yeah that would destroy NO, don't think the new flood barriers could withstand it.

[Blinhart]

Some of these runs are looking... interesting for the AL coast. Both for 97L and 98L. This is looking like a very ominous season for the Gulf Coast

Yeah, I don't like this and my gut is telling me we will be watching out until the end of September.

[Blinhart]

00z GEFS below. Looks concerning for both the Bahamas and FL, especially as long as 98L stays north of the Greater Antilles.

https://i.imgur.com/GYXNe3d.png

Interestingly, while the strongest members have shifted very little beyond day five vs. the 12Z suite, the 00Z ensemble mean is now west of the strongest members for the first time, whereas at 12Z roughly an equal number of strong members deviated either to the west or the east of the mean. Verbatim, this indicates that a stronger 98L is more likely to turn earlier and, if exceptionally intense while over or near (just east of) the Bahamas, might feel the shortwave impulses to its north and break through the narrow but strong ridge, thereby following the mid-level flow and curving east of the U.S. and/or the Bahamas. Since both the GFS and the ECMWF are likely too weak with 98L through the first five days, especially from days three through five, we need to watch for any significant changes in the location and timing of the various features, including the strength of the ridge, the short-term intensity trends with 98L, the extension (if any) of the Sonoran heat ridge, and the interaction of various shortwave impulses with 98L. While the threat to South FL is increasing, even OTS options are still very much on the table. Even subtle changes could mean the difference between a major hurricane striking Miami and a major hurricane curving OTS. And we must always bear in mind that climatology usually favours OTS, given that anomalous conditions are necessary for a MH to hit any land mass.

I hope you are right, but with the way 2020 is going you can never expect anything to go as it should.

[USTropics]

ECMWF ensembles doubling down on no development:


Personally that seems highly unlikely given current satellite presentation and improvements to the mid-level circulation tonight.

[USTropics]

00z UKMET takes 98L into south Florida and then into the GOM:

[Shell Mound]

00z GEFS below. Looks concerning for both the Bahamas and FL, especially as long as 98L stays north of the Greater Antilles.

https://i.imgur.com/GYXNe3d.png

Interestingly, while the strongest members have shifted very little beyond day five vs. the 12Z suite, the 00Z ensemble mean is now west of the strongest members for the first time, whereas at 12Z roughly an equal number of strong members deviated either to the west or the east of the mean. Verbatim, this indicates that a stronger 98L is more likely to turn earlier and, if exceptionally intense while over or near (just east of) the Bahamas, might feel the shortwave impulses to its north and break through the narrow but strong ridge, thereby following the mid-level flow and curving east of the U.S. and/or the Bahamas. Since both the GFS and the ECMWF are likely too weak with 98L through the first five days, especially from days three through five, we need to watch for any significant changes in the location and timing of the various features, including the strength of the ridge, the short-term intensity trends with 98L, the extension (if any) of the Sonoran heat ridge, and the interaction of various shortwave impulses with 98L. While the threat to South FL is increasing, even OTS options are still very much on the table. Even subtle changes could mean the difference between a major hurricane striking Miami and a major hurricane curving OTS. And we must always bear in mind that climatology usually favours OTS, given that anomalous conditions are necessary for a MH to hit any land mass.

I hope you are right, but with the way 2020 is going you can never expect anything to go as it should.

I’m not superstitious, even in 2020. I rely on science and personal experience as far as projections and modelling are concerned.